August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

First foray into the 40s in about a month. Looks like the coolest morning since July 1.

[Deweydog]

46 here!

[Deweydog]

A cool low of at least 54 at PDX this morning. 5 degrees below average.

[Jesse]

Average low is 59 right now. Thank you 1981-2010!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like SEA did not have a midnight low... or even a next morning low for that matter. 57 yesterday morning and 58 this morning.

OLM did.

[snow maniac]

Very localized rainfall around here today. I had less than a hundredth, but less than 5 miles to my west they had .29".

 

It's been very dry here over the last few weeks. Today's rainfall was the first measurable since July 16th, and I've only received .12" since July 9th.

 

I won't use the "D" word, but we could really use a good soaking as everything is looking pretty parched. It's nothing like last summer, but we're running a pretty large deficit for the year.

Yeah, not even a drop of rain here either.

[BLI snowman]

OLM did.

 

PDX was just as cold as OLM today.

 

Tumwater is going to the dogs, man. Changing times....

[Front Ranger]

PDX was just as cold as OLM today.

 

Tumwater is going to the dogs, man. Changing times....

Nice. UHI is mostly negated by cloudiness.

 

Of course, the point was that I said midnight lows could occur last night, and one indeed did at OLM. Probably a few other places too.

[ShawniganLake]

Upper 50's for lows up here this morning.  Looks like +7F for a low at Victoria, probably +4F at Shawnigan Lake. 

[BLI snowman]

Nice. UHI is mostly negated by cloudiness.

 

Of course, the point was that I said midnight lows could occur last night, and one indeed did at OLM. Probably a few other places too.

 

The point always should end with glowing commendations of your singular genius.

[Jesse]

Upper 50's for lows up here this morning.  Looks like +7F for a low at Victoria, probably +4F at Shawnigan Lake. 

 

So weird how you guys seem to stay warm regardless of the pattern lately. I'm sure you are enjoying it though.

[Jesse]

I see Bellingham had a pretty mild low too. It looks like there was a lot more mixing/cloudiness up north. They had SSE winds most the night there.

 

We had the benefit of a cool, dry airmass and a mostly clear night down here. Now the marine layer has moved in. I could see PDX pulling off a -3 or -4 today. Maybe even a -5 if they manage to stay in the 70s.

 

They were -3 yesterday and the day before.

[Jesse]

The point always should end with glowing commendations of your singular genius.

 

Jared hasn't been bad at all lately. I think you're thinking of the other two.

[Front Ranger]

The point always should end with glowing commendations of your singular genius.

Exactly.

 

Wouldn't have brought attention to it, but Timmy tried to call me out. That guy.

[ShawniganLake]

So weird how you guys seem to stay warm regardless of the pattern lately. I'm sure you are enjoying it though.

A perfect storm for mild lows.  Looks like the last below average low at YYJ was July 6th.  Not much in the way of clear, calm nights.  The mean low for July was only 0.5F cooler than in 2015 and warmer than in 2014. 

[BLI snowman]

Jared hasn't been bad at all lately. I think you're thinking of the other two.

 

I think you're taking my soft-poke trolljob a little surious. 

[Jesse]

I think you're taking my soft-poke trolljob a little surious.

Trolling is serious business!

[Geos]

Stayed pretty cloudy last night, so the temp stayed up. 56° for a low. Now at 65° with mostly cloudy skies.

[Jesse]

PDX actually dropped to 53.

 

-6 for the low.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Yesterday was a -1.1, our first negative departure since July 15th. This morning's low was a +3.

[TT-SEA]

Exactly.

 

Wouldn't have brought attention to it, but Timmy tried to call me out. That guy.

I was talking about SEA when you made you the midnight low comment.

[Jesse]

I love the progression on the 12z GFS. Big trough followed by a big ridge then another big trough.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of sun around Seattle now... right on schedule. No inversion surprises today.

[Geos]

I can see the clearing to the south and west. Not quite here yet.

 

Slight chance of showers in the forecast for the weekend now.

[BLI snowman]

PDX actually dropped to 53.

 

-6 for the low.

 

That makes it PDX's coldest August reading since 8/25/2012.

[Jesse]

That makes it PDX's coldest August reading since 8/25/2012.

Wow.

 

Says more about the ridiculous mildness of the last three Augusts than anything.

[BLI snowman]

Wow.

 

Says more about the ridiculous mildness of the last three Augusts than anything.

 

Yeah, this was a pretty innocuous setup but it puts the past few years into perspective. 

[Deweydog]

Interesting little swirl on off the coast on the visible satellite.

[Jesse]

Interesting little swirl on off the coast on the visible satellite.

What is it?

[Brennan]

I see Bellingham had a pretty mild low too. It looks like there was a lot more mixing/cloudiness up north. They had SSE winds most the night there.

 

We had the benefit of a cool, dry airmass and a mostly clear night down here. Now the marine layer has moved in. I could see PDX pulling off a -3 or -4 today. Maybe even a -5 if they manage to stay in the 70s.

 

They were -3 yesterday and the day before.

It was cloudy most of the night and actually rained this morning for the first time since I’ve been home (July 19th). The last two days have felt a little like fall though; overcast and mild. 

[Deweydog]

What is it?

Looks kind of like a little coastal eddy.

[Jesse]

Looks kind of like a little coastal eddy.

That was actually the first phrase that came to my mind.

 

Niña-juiced, no doubt.

[Front Ranger]

Wow.

 

Says more about the ridiculous mildness of the last three Augusts than anything.

True, but the fact that it occurred right at the beginning of the month is mildly impressive.

[Jesse]

What a gorgeous day.

[Jesse]

True, but the fact that it occurred right at the beginning of the month is mildly impressive.

I will grant that. Hopefully a taste of things to come.

 

Some August upper-40s later on in the month?

[Front Ranger]

I see the Euro went warm past day 6 again.

[Jesse]

I see the Euro went warm past day 6 again.

A mid-August heatwave followed by a nice crash seems like a decent call.

[GobBluth]

A mid-August heatwave followed by a nice crash seems like a decent call.

It looks very borderline depending on when the low departs and the next one arrives - could easily see the euro backing off in future runs.

[Front Ranger]

A mid-August heatwave followed by a nice crash seems like a decent call.

Perhaps. And maybe just heatwave-lite, like last week.

[Jesse]

It looks very borderline depending on when the low departs and the next one arrives - could easily see the euro backing off in future runs.

Yup, the Euro ensembles seem to support this possibility.