August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

I went through all of July without convection in Klamath Falls. That did happen in 2012 when I was up in Beaverton for a few months, but it should be noted that it's extremely rare for it to happen. Should have made front page news on our local paper.

 

Latest AFD's give me sighs of relief, we finally have a somewhat decent trigger for storms Friday/Saturday. Even a chance tomorrow but I gather tomorrow is the lower of possibilities.

 

46 days since my last thunderstorm and I am THIRSTY!

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is very cool for Friday night through Tuesday.  Decent low temps particularly Sat and Sun and then highs well below normal Sunday through Tuesday.  All 3 days are shown to fall short of 70 for Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

3 very cool days on the 12Z ECMWF... from Saturday - Monday.  

[TT-SEA]

The WRF is very cool for Friday night through Tuesday.  Decent low temps particularly Sat and Sun and then highs well below normal Sunday through Tuesday.  All 3 days are shown to fall short of 70 for Seattle.

 

 

Literally posting the same thing simultaneously.   

 

Glad we won't be here for the anti-summer clouds and cool weather.   Summer is too short to celebrate that stuff.

 

Looks much nicer in Portland over the weekend.

[snow_wizard]

Literally posting the same thing simultaneously.   

 

Glad we won't be here for the anti-summer clouds and cool weather.   Summer is too short to celebrate that stuff.

 

Looks much nicer in Portland over the weekend.

 

 

We were due to finally score some big minuses out of one of these troughs.

[TT-SEA]

We were due to finally score some big minuses out of one of these troughs.

 

I could not care less about stats when you essentially lose a summer weekend.    

 

Not even really about temperatures but rather what appears to be thick clouds and some precip both days.   

 

Not my problem though... good timing for us.

[Deweydog]

I could not care less about stats when you essentially lose a summer weekend.

 

Not even really about temperatures but rather what appears to be thick clouds and some precip both days.

 

Not my problem though... good timing for us.

This weekend is looking horrific. Putting up the storm shutters and stocking up on sandbags, vitamin D suplements, MRE's here.

[TT-SEA]

This weekend is looking horrific. Putting up the storm shutters and stocking up on sandbags, vitamin D suplements, MRE's here.

 

 

Going to be stellar in Portland of course.   75-80 and mostly sunny both days.

[TT-SEA]

Another perfectly normal day at SEA.    There have been numerous such days this summer.  Clouds clearing by mid-morning with sunshine and a 0 departure on the day (76/58).

[Kayla]

Another perfectly normal day at SEA.    There have been numerous such days this summer.  Clouds clearing by mid-morning with sunshine and a 0 departure on the day (76/58).

 

Different case for PDX. Another solidly below average day (morning) with another -3.5 departure that will be rounded down to -3. Why NWS??

[snow_wizard]

Different case for PDX. Another solidly below average day (morning) with another -3.5 departure that will be rounded down to -3. Why NWS??

 

No doubt Portland has been on a bit of a roll lately.

[TT-SEA]

Different case for PDX. Another solidly below average day (morning) with another -3.5 departure that will be rounded down to -3. Why NWS??

 

 

Daily departures are not used for the monthly stats.

[snow_wizard]

Upper 50's for lows up here this morning.  Looks like +7F for a low at Victoria, probably +4F at Shawnigan Lake. 

 

Not looking good for winter for you guys.

[Kayla]

Daily departures are not used for the monthly stats.

 

Ha, now that makes so much sense! It's like it's run by the government or something!

 

Thanks for clarifying though, definitely good to know.

[snow_wizard]

I will grant that. Hopefully a taste of things to come.

 

Some August upper-40s later on in the month?

 

Could be.  Friday night is depicted as being chilly on the WRF.  At least a few cool mins have been sneaking into the mix even at SEA lately.

[TT-SEA]

Not looking good for winter for you guys.

 

 

I hope they own all of us this winter... warm summer and cold winter.   The way it should be.

[Front Ranger]

I'm seeing -4 for PDX today.

[Front Ranger]

I hope they own all of us this winter... warm summer and cold winter. The way it should be.

But it's all relative? Nice or not nice? Anomalies be damned.

[Jesse]

But it's all relative? Nice or not nice? Anomalies be damned.

Depends on who you are trying to troll.

[Jesse]

I'm seeing -4 for PDX today.

Yup, today was a -4 there.

[ShawniganLake]

I hope they own all of us this winter... warm summer and cold winter. The way it should be.

Victoria is way overdue for a big "strait effect" event. Just saying.

[ShawniganLake]

Not looking good for winter for you guys.

We are saving the cold anomalies for when it really counts     

[snow_wizard]

Still looking like big time below normal temps Sat through Tuesday.  Looks like the first third of August will run well below normal.  I'm hoping to see some minuses on the min temps as well as the max.

[Geos]

77° for a high today. Cleared out nicely around midday.

[Geos]

After the ULL pulls out of the region, it's back to summer warmth.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble seems to be picking up the idea of the ECMWF in showing a brief period of warm weather in the 6 to 10 period before it drops off again.  Looking about as cool as any August since 2001.

[The Swamp]

We were due to finally score some big minuses out of one of these troughs.

Snowwizz you seem to learn nothing. You do this all winter long. This is a lock or that is a lock. The weekend isn't here yet but in your mind it's already been cool. Wake up man.

[The Swamp]

The GFS ensemble seems to be picking up the idea of the ECMWF in showing a brief period of warm weather in the 6 to 10 period before it drops off again. Looking about as cool as any August since 2001.

Is it a lock?

[Jesse]

Today could be # 6 in Portland.

[Jesse]

Looks like some cooler lows up north this morning. BLI hit at least 51.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like some cooler lows up north this morning. BLI hit at least 51.

51F here as well. 

[Deweydog]

Hoped to parlay yesterday's 46 into some frost this morning. Didn't quite work out.

[ShawniganLake]

A light breeze kept YYJ mild this morning.  At least a +4F to start there.  Maybe they built another runway recently, seems like they are consistently warm on the lows. 

[GobBluth]

Is it a lock?

06 seemed to modify a couple days of heat compared to the 00.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday looks much warmer and more sunny for the Seattle area on the 12Z ECMWF compared to previous runs.   The ULL is a little farther west.    This improvement for Saturday actually started on the 00Z run.

 

The weekend might be half good up here (irrelevant to me but for those who will be here).

[Jesse]

Warming up pretty quickly today, but feels pleasant with the low humidity and NW breeze.

[James Jones]

Warming up pretty quickly today, but feels pleasant with the low humidity and NW breeze.

I think I've seen Andrew complain about dews in the mid 50s as being too humid before (probably gave Phil an aneurysm).

 

Yesterday was perfect. Starting to feel a bit hot out there right now.

[Jesse]

I think I've seen Andrew complain about dews in the mid 50s as being too humid before (probably gave Phil an aneurysm).

 

Yesterday was perfect. Starting to feel a bit hot out there right now.

Today has a "surprise" 90 feel to it.

 

Probably depends on when tonight's marine push starts to take effect.

[Jesse]

12z Euro ensembles look a lot different than the op at day 10.

 

 

Looks like the ensembles don't like cutting off that low. This heat event could end up being another mirage.

[Deweydog]

Today has a "surprise" 90 feel to it.

 

Probably depends on when tonight's marine push starts to take effect.

Evening highs!!!!!!