August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Windy where I'm at in Victoria this afternoon. Gusting close to 30mph.

 

It's been pretty windy since I arrived back in Victoria early this afternoon, but it's been a warm wind. It ended up hitting about 25C (77F) and even now it's still around 72~73F. Usually things cool down quickly when we get sustained winds of this strength, but the wind has been largely out of the W/NW suppressing the normal cooler SW sea breeze.

[Jesse]

Looks like Brett also shows the end of August being warm in the PNW.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-the-long-range-into-early-september/59237009

 

What say you, Phil?

[Jesse]

It's been pretty windy since I arrived back in Victoria early this afternoon, but it's been a warm wind. It ended up hitting about 25C (77F) and even now it's still around 72~73F. Usually things cool down quickly when we get sustained winds of this strength, but the wind has been largely out of the W/NW suppressing the normal cooler SW sea breeze.

Probably one of the coolest warm patterns on record for you guys up there.

[Phil]

Looks like Brett also shows the end of August being warm in the PNW.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-the-long-range-into-early-september/59237009

 

What say you, Phil?

Brett and his red crayon have been spot on this summer..

[Deweydog]

Brett and his red crayon have been spot on this summer..

He should use that red crayon as a pole and shove it in his conduit.

[Jesse]

I smell some pre-midnight lows in spots this evening.

[James Jones]

Already down to 61 at PDX.

[Jesse]

Already down to 61 at PDX.

They should hit the 50s before midnight (1am).

[Jesse]

Nice crash for next week on the 00z GFS.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Probably one of the coolest warm patterns on record for you guys up there.

 

This has been a strange one. We keep finding ways to stay warm regardless of what the upper levels are doing. Makes me wonder if the persistent drought and very dry soils are feeding back into warmer temperatures. It will be interesting to see how things go this weekend; the most potent-looking upper level feature in all of North America will loop around us from our north to west to south and exit to our east. Despite this, the models have been backing way off on precipitation over the Victoria region.

[TT-SEA]

I see dewpoints were in the upper 40s yesterday afternoon in Seattle... and its cool this morning.     That is less humid than the mid 50 to low 60s dewpoint readings during most of July.   I think of dewpoints in the upper 40s in the summer as being not humid for Seattle.

 

Strange set-up today with the ULL offshore but the cool air already out ahead of the system.   Normally that would be the warm side of the ULL.    GFS MOS is really cool for the next 3 days including today.

 

August looks more dynamic than July.     Already had thunderstorms and heavy rain at home.... then a warm up and now a big cool down.   Later this coming week looks warm and then another big crash with what appears to be effects from the WPAC typhoon.  I wonder if that might set us up for a warm final third of August.  

 

Cool morning here in Minnesota as well but should be a spectacular day with highs close to 80 and very little humidity.

[Tyler Mode]

Coolest morning since June 25th for me.  Sitting at 45 degrees even right now.  Should fall off a little bit more before sunrise.

[Tyler Mode]

Coolest morning since June 25th for me.  Sitting at 45 degrees even right now.  Should fall off a little bit more before sunrise.

Ended up with a low of 44.6 here in Battle Ground.

 

PDX only dropped to 57 with low clouds, VUO dropped to 53 (thanks Jesse) before the clouds developed.

[Jesse]

Ended up with a low of 44.6 here in Battle Ground.

 

PDX and VUO only dropped to 57 with low clouds.

VUO fell to 53.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Eugene and Newport both fell into the mid-40s. 

[Tyler Mode]

VUO fell to 53.

Whoops...thank you!  Corrected.  I didn't look at before it clouded up.  Maybe I should work in the climate division??

[TT-SEA]

Run the loop on the 500mb map from the GFS.    That has to be the slowest moving ULL I have ever seen over us.

 

Click "loop all" on the right side here:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160806%2012%20UTC&param=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model

[MossMan]

Glad we went to the fair yesterday while we had perfection for weather. Currently dark, cloudy and 58 degrees here in Arlington.

[Jesse]

Gotta love Brett! You know things might get hot when he starts bringing out the very warm crayons!

 

 

Actually...he has basically been wrong all summer.

[Phil]

Cool morning here in Minnesota as well but should be a spectacular day with highs close to 80 and very little humidity.

Dewpoints in the upper 50s! Humid! Drink those fluids, stay out of direct sunlight, and most importantly, avoid strenuous outdoor activities like gardening, running, etc.

 

Meanwhile, just another 92/75 afternoon here. Nothing compared to the brutality found in the Minnesota swamplands on a daily basis.

[Phil]

Actually...he has basically been wrong all summer.

Yeah, pretty much this. He hasn't had you guys below average during week2 - week4 all summer.

[FroYoBro]

Dewpoints in the upper 50s! Humid! Drink those fluids, stay out of direct sunlight, and most importantly, avoid strenuous outdoor activities like gardening, running, etc.

 

Meanwhile, just another 92/75 afternoon here. Nothing compared to the brutality found in the Minnesota swamplands on a daily basis.

You are definitely going to win this competition! 

[TT-SEA]

Dewpoints in the upper 50s! Humid! Drink those fluids, stay out of direct sunlight, and most importantly, avoid strenuous outdoor activities like gardening, running, etc.

Meanwhile, just another 92/75 afternoon here. Nothing compared to the brutality found in the Minnesota swamplands on a daily basis.

They have had dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s here this summer. But it's just perfect right now.

[Phil]

They have had dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s here this summer. But it's just perfect right now.

So, are dewpoints in the upper 50s "humid" or "perfect"?

 

Looks like five whole days with mid/upper 70s dews in Minneapolis. Endless, brutal humidity, not to mention that beastly Minnesota sun angle.

[Phil]

00z EPS is troughy well into the d11-15 range, and is beginning another ridge retrogression on d13.

 

Actually haven't seen the EPS this chilly in the PNW beyond d11 all summer, IIRC.

[TT-SEA]

So, are dewpoints in the upper 50s "humid" or "perfect"?

Looks like five whole days with mid/upper 70s dews in Minneapolis. Endless, brutal humidity, not to mention that beastly Minnesota sun angle.

Perfect at home and here.

 

By Seattle area standards it's a little humid. By MN standards it's a little drier than normal

[Phil]

It's funny, the weeklies were torching the PNW next week, run after run through the entirety of July.

 

Literally, since June, every single EPS weekly run has torched the PNW from wk3 to wk6. It's almost like they revert to match the SSTA signature in the extended range, as if these SSTs somehow govern the hemispheric circulations.

 

The model has also failed to capture the orientation of the NPAC ridging, PDO/AAM drop(s), and has been forecasting a NE US trough in the long range seemingly 24/7.

 

Just a terrible performance this summer, all around.

[Jesse]

So, are dewpoints in the upper 50s "humid" or "perfect"?

 

Looks like five whole days with mid/upper 70s dews in Minneapolis. Endless, brutal humidity, not to mention that beastly Minnesota sun angle.

 

Dps in the mid-50s are pretty normal fare for west of the Cascades in the summer. Any attempt to paint those as humid should be written off as trolling.

[Timmy Supercell]

I had a thunderstorm yesterday, forming just a bit to my north and NE. It was close enough to count as a storm day and there was a lot of lightning spitting out of it around 8:00pm. At one point there was near constant rumbling, lightning every 5-6 seconds. This would have been exciting if it were on top of me.. I did take video but 90% of the lightning was obscured. Overall I'm thinking it's not worth uploading. Here are some photos at least!

 

I had gone through a 49 day stretch without storms before this. Now I can breathe. 

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/2lnk2vl.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/xlf8tx.jpg

http://i68.tinypic.com/2lt1rhy.jpg

http://i63.tinypic.com/9v8377.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/25twx1g.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/s2vf4m.jpg

 

I hope there weren't TOO many photos 

[TT-SEA]

Dps in the mid-50s are pretty normal fare for west of the Cascades in the summer. Any attempt to paint those as humid should be written off as trolling.

Upper 50s to low 60s feels a little humid at home. We have had a lot of that this summer. Upper 40s and low 50s is not humid. Jesse is being a d×ck again. Others have said it has felt sort of humid from Seattle to Vancouver. Including Jim. IT HAS. Quit telling people what it feels like.

[ShawniganLake]

It's funny, the weeklies were torching the PNW next week, run after run through the entirety of July.

 

Literally, since June, every single EPS weekly run has torched the PNW from wk3 to wk6. It's almost like they revert to match the SSTA signature in the extended range, as if these SSTs somehow govern the hemispheric circulations.

 

The model has also failed to capture the orientation of the NPAC ridging, PDO/AAM drop(s), and has been forecasting a NE US trough in the long range seemingly 24/7.

 

Just a terrible performance this summer, all around.

Could be mid 90s in Parts of the PNW next week.  That's pretty hot.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, pretty much this. He hasn't had you guys below average during week2 - week4 all summer.

Considering his "forecast" is heavily based on the EPS, and you say they have been horrible, I guess it would make sense that his interpretation of the Euro weeklies has produced poor results. 

[GHweatherChris]

Upper 50s to low 60s feels a little humid at home. We have had a lot of that this summer. Upper 40s and low 50s is not humid. Jesse is being a d×ck again. Others have said it has felt sort of humid from Seattle to Vancouver. Including Jim. IT HAS. Quit telling people what it feels like.

Practice what you preach.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From what I can tell Eugene's low of 42 this morning tied a record.

[TT-SEA]

Practice what you preach.

I don't now.

[Jesse]

Could be mid 90s in Parts of the PNW next week. That's pretty hot.

For what west side location are you seeing mid-90s forecast?

[Phil]

Could be mid 90s in Parts of the PNW next week. That's pretty hot.

Going to be a cooler than average week across most of the PNW, actually. Far from an anomalous, persistent blowtorch as predicted.

[TT-SEA]

Going to be a cooler than average week across most of the PNW, actually. Far from an anomalous, persistent blowtorch as predicted.

I actually agree with you looking at the models.

[Timmy Supercell]

From what I can tell Eugene's low of 42 this morning tied a record.

 

I had 44 for a low here, my record for 08/06 is 38 degrees in 2002.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The skies are completely clear over Victoria this morning but the marine air is definitely making its presence felt. Only up to about 17C (62F) so far after a low of about 13C (55F). Looking at the satellite I imagine there will be a rush of cloud cover pushing in over the next few hours. The upper level low is showing up nicely on the satellite imagery now. Hopefully this slow tracking low will bring ample chances for rain.

 

In other news I was taking a look at the temperatures up in Sandspit and they are running well above average up that way; The overnight lows particularly standout.