August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

Yeah I know and I don't just follow the Typhoon Rule or the Bering Sea Rule. I also factor in other aspects including what you have to say. Tonight's 00z GFS shows a very wavy jet stream. Giant trough offshore leading to a west coast ridge.

 

 

 

That looks warm.

 

Had an early evening high of 71°.

[Jesse]

I cant believe the Euro weeklies didn't see this ULL coming. Pretty disappointing

A ULL wouldn't have dropped in in the first place without a general offshore ridging pattern, which the Euro weeklies have missed pretty consistently farther out.

 

Obviously small scale features like this ULL are impossible for the long range models to pick up, but the position of the main players that would allow the a pattern like this to develop are what they are attempting to hone in on, right?

[Jesse]

00z GFS watered down the ridge in the believable (5-7 day) range quite a bit.

[Jesse]

00z Euro reduces the warm spell to two days (Thu-Fri) and puts us back into a very cool pattern by next weekend.

[Brennan]

Go Griffey, Go Shawn O’Malley, Go Edwin Diaz, Go Mariners. 

[Tyler Mode]

 

So I did eventually bother to clip down stuff and upload a video. Around 20 minutes worth of footage cut down to 3 minutes. There was so much more lightning that didn't pick up, I guess in the daylight it's difficult for even my new cameras to capture that stuff. During the May 4th storm I used the exact same camera and it picked up dozens of flashes/bolts with relative ease.

 

 

Some great captures in there!  Wow!  I'm missing the summer storms this year!

[Geos]

Going to be a cool Seafair Sunday. Mid 50s now with showers already moving in west of Olympia.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks to be a perfect day for my oldest daughters outdoor wedding... Not!!!! All I have to say the weather today is going to epically suck weather wise ... *sigh* I hope our 200 guest bring umbrellas... going to be soggy!!

[Jesse]

Looks like we could pick up some showers down here this afternoon. Glad to see it.

[TT-SEA]

Looks to be a perfect day for my oldest daughters outdoor wedding... Not!!!! All I have to say the weather today is going to epically suck weather wise ... *sigh* I hope our 200 guest bring umbrellas... going to be soggy!!

Cold anomalies are WAY more important than summer plans. Celebrate accordingly!

 

We have all year for sunshine and warm weather.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks to be a perfect day for my oldest daughters outdoor wedding... Not!!!! All I have to say the weather today is going to epically suck weather wise ... *sigh* I hope our 200 guest bring umbrellas... going to be soggy!!

Congrats. Hope it's a good day regardless. Pretty unlucky to get a rainy weekend this time of the year.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Congrats. Hope it's a good day regardless. Pretty unlucky to get a rainy weekend this time of the year.

thank you! It will be a wonderful day either way but we so hoped for no rain but Enumclaw looks to be a major area for instability today.

[Deweydog]

thank you! It will be a wonderful day either way but we so hoped for no rain but Enumclaw looks to be a major area for instability today.

Just show people the forum niceness index numbers for the day and they'll be fine.

[TT-SEA]

Just show people the forum niceness index numbers for the day and they'll be fine.

 

I am sure most people prefer 60 degrees and raining on the first weekend of August. I mean it was hot at times last summer. That was enough. Sheeeesssh.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

thank you! It will be a wonderful day either way but we so hoped for no rain but Enumclaw looks to be a major area for instability today.

 

Hope you manage to catch a break in the weather down there. I'd be happy to take the rain off your hands if only it were that easy, the models aren't showing anymore than a measly trace of rain up this way.

[Phil]

Significant cooling of the offshore SSTAs over the last week, in response to the low frequency anticyclonic tendency associated with La Niña. Actually a classic example of the PDO as a fluid-inertial reflector.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[MossMan]

I am sure most people prefer 60 degrees and raining on the first weekend of August. I mean it was hot at times last summer. That was enough. Sheeeesssh.

Exactly! Since we don't spend enough time either huddled indoors or outdoors being wet and cold for 8 months straight, let's have crappy cold weather in the summer as well...yay!!!

[TT-SEA]

Exactly! Since we don't spend enough time either huddled indoors or outdoors being wet and cold for 8 months straight, let's have crappy cold weather in the summer as well...yay!!!

Very important. It might snow for a couple days this winter. We need to celebrate the loss of sunmer days.

[Phil]

Exactly! Since we don't spend enough time either huddled indoors or outdoors being wet and cold for 8 months straight, let's have crappy cold weather in the summer as well...yay!!!

This is analogous to folks in Miami complaining about "cold" during the winter. You have one of the nicest, most preferable summer climates in the country, even under the ULL.

 

Be thankful.

[TT-SEA]

This is analogous to folks in Miami complaining about "cold" during the winter. You have one of the nicest, most preferable summer climates in the country, even under the ULL.

Be thankful.

No way dude. We have great summer weather normally. This pattern is like having it stolen. Same with ridiculous heat.

 

Our timing worked out well.

[epiceast]

So I moved to Missoula a week ago... Weirdest thing about this place is that grass is green above 4-5k' depending on slope aspect. Must be a wet summer here.

[Deweydog]

No way dude. We have great summer weather normally. This pattern is like having it stolen. Same with ridiculous heat.

 

Our timing worked out well.

You said this summer would be perfect. Perfectly perfect summer perfection! You were so incredibly wrong. This weekend is unprecedentedly horrific on a human level. Shame on you.

[Jesse]

At least down here, we have only had a handful of truly wet and/or gloomy summer days this year. And we have been constantly hearing about is how much "nicer" it has been up north.

 

That said, I really don't understand the petulant bellyaching from some (although luvssnow being slightly disappointed with timing is understandable given the occasion).

[TT-SEA]

You said this summer would be perfect. Perfectly perfect summer perfection! You were so incredibly wrong. This weekend is unprecedentedly horrific on a human level. Shame on you.

Yesterday was decent. I told Jim that half the weekend might be OK.

[Jesse]

The 12Z GFS is pretty troughy overall in the believable range, although Blizzard will probably love hour 384.

[TT-SEA]

This is analogous to folks in Miami complaining about "cold" during the winter. You have one of the nicest, most preferable summer climates in the country, even under the ULL.

 

Be thankful.

 

SEA is at 57 with fog and mist at 11 a.m.

 

Thankful huh?   On the biggest outdoor weekend of the year in Seattle.   I am sure everyone is saying Thank God its not warm outside!   

 

Lets enjoy and be grateful for our normal winter weather in August.  

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Don't know about all you west siders of Washington, but I honestly can't complain about a high in the upper 70's in August. This would be perfect with an evening storm or two. I may have to deal with the possibility of no more storms for a while. 

 

Last few mornings have been great. Gotta love those crisp 40's on the east side!

[TT-SEA]

Don't know about all you west siders of Washington, but I honestly can't complain about a high in the upper 70's in August. This would be perfect with an evening storm or two. I may have to deal with the possibility of no more storms for a while.

 

Last few mornings have been great. Gotta love those crisp 40's on the east side!

We would never complain about upper 70s and sunny. Upper 50s with drizzle all day... not so good.

[BLI snowman]

SEA is at 57 with fog and mist at 11 a.m.

 

Thankful huh?   On the biggest outdoor weekend of the year in Seattle.   I am sure everyone is saying Thank God its not warm outside!   

 

Lets enjoy and be grateful for our normal winter weather in August.  

 

 

It's been 15 hours since I've seen the sun. I just can't grip this. My coworkers were all laughing at the idea that people on an internet forum could in the summer cheer clouds, drizzle, and slightly cooler than average temperatures at an airport where they probably never even fly out from 

 

Seriously, just wait another 40 days guys!

 

My family swears this should be the last straw and I should leave for good. No more empty promises about "next time being different" or "this place can change". Enough is enough. 

[Jesse]

12z Euro shows Friday as the only potentially warm to hot day this week. Pretty aggressive with the troughing again after that.

[Jesse]

I have updated the monthly anomaly forecast contest, if anyone is interested.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty ridiculous pattern for August when looping the ECMWF. Just ugly for the most part.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A large clear patch has opened over Victoria and we're now up to 67F. The western Juan de Fuca is currently getting a good soaking, nothing on the east side. The placement of the upper level low and slow movement should be favorable for afternoon convection across Southern Vancouver Island, at least outside the Victoria convection barrier. I imagine the Shawnigan area will get hit a little later on in the afternoon.

 

[edit] looks like there's some clearing over the Puget Sound now as well, it may yet turn out to be a nice afternoon for the events down there.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like a very interesting Sea-fair Sunday in the works.  Early afternoon temps in the low 60s with a good chance of thunderstorms on the way.  SEA could be looking at a max over 10 degrees below normal today.

 

Meanwhile I'm at Ocean Shores and the weather is partly cloudy after some rain early this morning.  Temps have been quite cool for the last few days.

[TT-SEA]

Looking like a very interesting Sea-fair Sunday in the works. Early afternoon temps in the low 60s with a good chance of thunderstorms on the way. SEA could be looking at a max over 10 degrees below normal today.

 

 

 

Meanwhile I'm at Ocean Shores and the weather is partly cloudy after some rain early this morning. Temps have been quite cool for the last few days.

Interesting in that most people stay home and the lake is empty. All good for taking joy in other people's misfortune.

 

Absolutely perfect here. We have been on the boats all afternoon... low to mid 80s and sunny. It could not be nicer. I am the spotter for the kid's waterskiing. Lots of down time on the transitions.

[snow_wizard]

12z Euro shows Friday as the only potentially warm to hot day this week. Pretty aggressive with the troughing again after that.

 

August is one of the months we have been stuck in a horrible rut this century.  Having a notably cool month would be a sign things have finally been shaken up.

[TT-SEA]

August is one of the months we have been stuck in a horrible rut this century.  Having a notably cool month would be a sign things have finally been shaken up.

Yep... sure looks nice. Best way to report on that is to imply mocking of people trying to enjoy SeaFair weekend and our short Seattle summer.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like sun is at least breaking out around Seattle.

[Jesse]

Jim wasn't mocking anyone. How ridiculous.

 

Someone is letting the weather here give them ulcers from 2,000 miles away.

[Jesse]

August is one of the months we have been stuck in a horrible rut this century. Having a notably cool month would be a sign things have finally been shaken up.

Indeed. We have also had a lot of sun overall down here, despite how cool it has been.