August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

I disagree. We are all part of a beautiful rainbow of mental illness.

Please don't lump me in with Tim. Couldn't I be on a lower tier of mental illness? 

[Jesse]

Please don't lump me in with Tim. Couldn't I be on a lower tier of mental illness?

Sure. You can be a low frequency red to his blazing indigo.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF ensemble mean has higher heights than the operational run.

[Front Ranger]

It's kind of funny how we're expected to "move on" when an easily above average ten day period ends up below average, but when things swing the other way it gets driven home until our eyes bleed.

Nailed it.

 

Tim is laughably predictable.

[TT-SEA]

Nailed it.

Tim is laughably predictable.

Nailed what? Totally unfair. When it looked troughy... I said it looked troughy. Totally unfair. I mentioned both scenarios... just nicer personally to see the trend toward warmer.

 

Go back and look. I am talking about troughy runs... impressive cold anomalies... etc. It is what it is.

 

You even liked my posts. Models change and now we just never mention it??

[Front Ranger]

Nailed what? Totally unfair. When it looked troughy... I said it looked troughy. Totally unfair. I mentioned both scenarios... just nicer personally to see the trend toward warmer.

 

Go back and look. I am talking about troughy runs... impressive cold anomalies... etc. It is what it is.

 

You even liked my posts. Models change and now we just never mention it??

You completely missed his point.

 

Look at how hard you hammered the late July anomalies, vs how you've responded to the cool anomalies this month.

 

And sometimes I give posts ironic likes...

[TT-SEA]

You completely missed his point.

Look at how hard you hammered the late July anomalies, vs how you've responded to the cool anomalies this month.

I certainly gave the cold anomalies props. Did not ignore it. I like warm anomalies better in the warm season.

 

We are all predictable then... Jesse and Jim get excited and post about warm anomalies?

[Front Ranger]

I certainly gave them props. I like warm anomalies better in the warm season.

 

We are all predictable then... Jesse and Jim get excited and post about warm anomalies?

Yes, but you also try to downplay periods you were wrong about. Like the past week or so.

 

I'm not picking on you. You brought this on yourself with your ridiculousness in July. I'll give you props when you're right, and I'll call you out when you're being a hypocrite.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, but you also try to downplay periods you were wrong about. Like the past week or so.

I'm not picking on you. You brought this on yourself with your ridiculousness in July. I'll give you props when you're right, and I'll call you out when you're being a hypocrite.

I completely agreed with you about cold early August posts. Never argued about anything. What else can I do? Start topics about it being cooler than I thought?

[BLI snowman]

I certainly gave the cold anomalies props. Did not ignore it. I like warm anomalies better in the warm season.

 

We are all predictable then... Jesse and Jim get excited and post about warm anomalies?

 

Sorry, but you've been severely obnoxious and obtuse recently, even by your standards, and this is coming from someone who has observed you for years. Just the way it goes sometimes. 

[Phil]

Great paper on QBO modulation of the boreal winter MJO. Might imply a weaker MJO this winter (overall):

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2016GL067762/asset/grl53976.pdf;jsessionid=5DC79E3D32F5AE8D77852C3C98DA41D7.f01t01?v=1&t=irnytdnh&s=8fca65fb372970c003f49aa0db3bfc62769a0867

[Geos]

It's struggled up to 66° as of 2:30.

[snow_wizard]

In defense of Phil... He predicted we would see a major anomalous GOA ridge this summer and we most certainly have. The anomaly has been impressive in it's intensity and duration. Good call.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is almost guaranteed a sub-70 high today. Always shown to be the coolest day with thick marine layer.

 

Never, ever bet against SEA overachieving.

[Jesse]

Never, ever bet against SEA overachieving.

Or PDX for that matter.

 

VUO had highs in the 60s today and yesterday. Probably more representative of the metro area.

[snow_wizard]

Sure enough SEA managed to top 70 today. Pretty much impossible for them to avoid in spite of the pattern.

[Deweydog]

Starting to suspect both airports won't see a sub 70 high ever again.

[Jesse]

Starting to suspect both airports won't see a sub 70 high ever again.

Ready for a warmer pattern big guy?

[Deweydog]

Ready for a warmer pattern big guy?

Is one coming???

[Jesse]

Is one coming???

Of course one is silly! I thought you looked at a model run just a few nights ago??

[Deweydog]

Of course one is silly! I thought you looked at a model run just a few nights ago??

I've abandoned models entirely and am waiting for an update from Richard.

[TT-SEA]

84 degrees after sunset with a dewpoint of 72... awesome. No one here is complaining. In fact the talk was about how gorgeous it is. Crazy Minnesotans.

 

[GHweatherChris]

84 degrees after sunset with a dewpoint of 72... awesome. No one here is complaining. In fact the talk was about how gorgeous it is. Crazy Minnesotans.

 

This is a PNW thread, thanks....

[Deweydog]

84 degrees after sunset with a dewpoint of 72... awesome. No one here is complaining. In fact the talk was about how gorgeous it is. Crazy Minnesotans.

 

Have you filled them all in on the Phil/Jim situation?

[TT-SEA]

Have you filled them all in on the Phil/Jim situation?

Not yet.

 

They are going to have a tough time understanding wanting summer to be crappy so it might snow in the winter.

[Deweydog]

Not yet.

 

They are going to have a tough time understanding wanting summer to be crappy so it might snow in the winter.

Two crazies don't make a right.

[TT-SEA]

Two crazies don't make a right.

Obviously.

[Deweydog]

Obviously.

Then why do you do it?

[TT-SEA]

Then why do you do it?

No idea.

[Deweydog]

No idea.

A professional diagnosis may behoove you.

[TT-SEA]

A professional diagnosis may behoove you.

 

A few others as well. Who cares.

 

I have not picked on Jim much... just when he picked on Randy and started in on some theories.

 

Really was trying with Jim.  

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

A few others as well. Who cares.

 

I have not picked on Jim much... just when he picked on Randy and started in on some theories.

 

Really was trying with Jim.

 

 

So you admit that you cannot handle someone who thinks differently than you, thats gotta feel good to get it off your chest. Well done Tim, it is the first step to recovery.

[TT-SEA]

So you admit that you cannot handle someone who thinks differently than you, thats gotta feel good to get it off your chest. Well done Tim, it is the first step to recovery.

Thinking different is totally fine. He ripped Randy multiple times.

[Front Ranger]

Not yet.

 

They are going to have a tough time understanding wanting summer to be crappy so it might snow in the winter.

They'll probably just have a hard time with understanding "so it might snow in the winter".

[TT-SEA]

They'll probably just have a hard time with understanding "so it might snow in the winter".

 

 

No doubt.   This warm lake will be covered in ice houses soon enough.   

[Front Ranger]

High of 68 at OLM. -6 for the day.

 

Don't feel like researching right now, but this has to be the coolest start to August in quite a while.

[TT-SEA]

High of 68 at OLM. -6 for the day.

 

Don't feel like researching right now, but this has to be the coolest start to August in quite a while.

 

 

I agree Jared.

 

It has been cool.   

 

This is a fact.  

 

I did not think it would be this cool.   This ULL was a unexpected wrinkle.

[Front Ranger]

I agree Jared.

 

It has been cool.

 

This is a fact.

 

I did not think it would be this cool. This ULL was a unexpected wrinkle.

A wrinkle as much as localized anomalies in July! Actually less so, since the ULL made everyone cool.

 

And it actually isn't that surprising, given the overall pattern. When you get high pressure offshore, these sort of things tend to develop.

[Deweydog]

A wrinkle as much as localized anomalies in July! Actually less so, since the ULL made everyone cool.

 

And it actually isn't that surprising, given the overall pattern. When you get high pressure offshore, these sort of things tend to develop.

Ouch.

[TT-SEA]

A wrinkle as much as localized anomalies in July! Actually less so, since the ULL made everyone cool.

And it actually isn't that surprising, given the overall pattern. When you get high pressure offshore, these sort of things tend to develop.

Sure. Its been a cool 4 days as a result of the ULL. No argument. We will see how the rest of the month plays out.