August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Mid-afternoon on Sunday is still decent... cool but not dark on this run.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.69.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

At this point Saturday looks like a September type day with a cool morning and afternoon temps in the low 70s or so.  Could be pretty enjoyable.

[Phil]

Back to normal after today for some areas. Might be still close to normal by the 15th after the troughing and then warm spell to follow.

Late August will be troughy. Middle is up for grabs.

[TT-SEA]

Late August will be troughy. Middle is up for grabs.

 

 

You are probably still off by 7-10 days.  

 

Remember early August ridging?   

[Phil]

You are probably still off by 7-10 days.

 

Remember early August ridging?

Probably not this time. I'd have said early/mid September without accounting for my slow bias (strong equator-pole conduits this summer).

[TT-SEA]

Probably not this time. I'd have said early/mid September without accounting for my slow bias (strong equator-pole conduits this summer).

 

Probably makes sense... first part troughy, middle warm, troughy end.

 

If August does end up cooler than normal then I expect a warm September.   Just a feeling based on local history.  

[Deweydog]

Mmmmmm...

 

Pole conduit.

[TT-SEA]

Also wasn't long ago that you were predicting "flat ridging" through the entirety of August.

 

 

Its all about definitions.    You pretty much call everything troughing out here.   So we are talking different languages.   This slow moving ULL is a bit of a wrench in the works though.    Otherwise it looks about like what I expected.   We just call it different things.

[Phil]

Probably makes sense... first part troughy, middle warm, troughy end.

 

If August does end up cooler than normal then I expect a warm September. Just a feeling based on local history.

I'll have a better handle on September in about 10 days, when the NPAC anticyclone starts retreating equatorward. Right now it's a good 15-20 degrees farther poleward vs average.

[Phil]

Its all about definitions. You pretty much call everything troughing out here. So we are talking different languages. This slow moving ULL is a bit of a wrench in the works though. Otherwise it looks about like what I expected. We just call it different things.

I deleted that post to avoid another back-and-forth.

 

Below average 500mb height anomalies = troughing, generally speaking.

[TT-SEA]

I deleted that post to avoid another back-and-forth.

 

Below average 500mb height anomalies = troughing, generally speaking.

 

 

Yeah... we just call things by different names.   Pointless to argue about it.   I was not making forecasts using your broader terms.   A shortwave ridge for example is just a type of ridge to me.     So my terminology will be different.    Whatever.

[snow_wizard]

I'll have a better handle on September in about 10 days, when the NPAC anticyclone starts retreating equatorward. Right now it's a good 15-20 degrees farther poleward vs average.

 

That would be hugely advantageous to us in the winter.  The anticyclone being too suppressed has ruined a lot of potentially good winters for us.

[snow_wizard]

No matter how you slice it the 0z GFS is troughy.  We have a shot at our coolest August in over 10 years.

[TT-SEA]

No matter how you slice it the 0z GFS is troughy.  We have a shot at our coolest August in over 10 years.

 

 

00Z GFS is very troughy.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows some places south of Seattle having highs in the upper 50s on Monday.  That model isn't known for having a cold bias either.  This could be a notable cool period coming up as the min temps are also progged to be below normal.

[Geos]

Mid-afternoon on Sunday is still decent... cool but not dark on this run.  

 

 

That looks like good timing for the clouds and showers to move in.

 

Nice morning - sunny and mid to upper 50s.

 

4km NAM was a bit faster...

 

[Geos]

Nice view on the Mount Si cam. Thin band of fog going on.

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

[TT-SEA]

You can definitely tell there are tropical systems messing with the models.

 

Lots of solutions showing fast zonal flow and/or a big ridge in the long range and flipping between runs.

[Bryant]

Snowwizz you seem to learn nothing. You do this all winter long. This is a lock or that is a lock. The weekend isn't here yet but in your mind it's already been cool. Wake up man.

Jim is one of the nicest guys here and yet he seems to always get crap he doesn't deserve. Go back into your hole please, thanks.

[Phil]

A ridge offshore will lead to cooler than average temperatures in the PNW. There's really no support for any sustained ridging in AUG outside clown range modeling that has shown no predictive ability whatsoever this summer.

[Jesse]

It seems unlikely, but I could picture August ending up above average. It is pretty hard to get two consecutive near to below normal summer months in a row these days.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro progression seems reasonable. Fairly brief ridging/heat spike following upcoming ULL, then a nice crash back into default troughing.

 

Potentially wetter pattern towards the end, as well.

[Jesse]

12z Euro progression seems reasonable. Fairly brief ridging/heat spike following upcoming ULL, then a nice crash back into default troughing.

 

Potentially wetter pattern towards the end, as well.

Both the GFS and Euro ensembles seemed less bullish about a crash.

[Deweydog]

Starting to think temperatures are going to be the x-factor this month when it comes to anomalies.

[Jesse]

Starting to think temperatures are going to be the x-factor this month when it comes to anomalies.

If only there were some way to numerically quantify niceness.

[Jesse]

Man, already pushing 80 at PDX.

 

The last few days have overachieved.

[BLI snowman]

Man, already pushing 80 at PDX.

 

The last few days have overachieved.

 

Today has looked like a good bet for 80ish, and tomorrow should be at least that warm. 

[Jesse]

Today has looked like a good bet for 80ish, and tomorrow should be at least that warm.

Today and tomorrow were looking like mid-upper 70s for awhile there.

 

Just like yesterday looked like mid-upper 80s until the models suddenly warmed up the day before.

[Phil]

I think the ridge will develop just close enough to give us warmer than normal temperatures. We don't need the ridge directly over us in the PNW to bring above average temperatures. Here were the weather conditions yesterday when PDX got to 90. Then ridge was well offshore.

Based on what, exactly? Sounds sort of like wishcasting to me.

 

Clown range modeling isn't the route I'd go this year. Remember all that 100+ degree heat consistently modeled for last week? What happened to it?

[Deweydog]

Man, already pushing 80 at PDX.

 

The last few days have overachieved.

Slightly higher niceness index #'s than expected.

[Jesse]

Slightly higher niceness index #'s than expected.

Nope. I said overachieved, not under. Maybe you read it wrong.

[BLI snowman]

Today and tomorrow were looking like mid-upper 70s for awhile there.

 

Just like yesterday looked like mid-upper 80s until the models suddenly warmed up the day before.

 

On a clear day you can as a rule of thumb just add a couple degrees to the MOS output. I saw yesterday consistently pegged around 86-88 for PDX, so a high around 90 fits the norm.

[Jesse]

On a clear day you can as a rule of thumb just add a couple degrees to the MOS output. I saw yesterday consistently pegged around 86-88 for PDX, so a high around 90 fits the norm.

Apparently Mark Nelsen and NWS saw things different. 87 and 88, respectively.

 

I think the increased offshore flow was a bit of a last minute development.

[ShawniganLake]

Windy where I'm at in Victoria this afternoon. Gusting close to 30mph.

[Deweydog]

Nope. I said overachieved, not under. Maybe you read it wrong.

[Phil]

The "typhoon rule" says nothing as to the location and orientation of the downstream cyclonic breaking. I don't know where this idea that recurving typhoon = western ridge originated from, but it's demonstrably false.

 

There are many example of recurving typhoons that were followed by extended periods of western troughing. It all depends on the nature of the wavebreaking response (assuming one even occurs to begin with).

[Jesse]

Joe Bastardi.

Well at least it isn't someone who has ever been known to overemphasize western ridging.

[Jesse]

He's in a general a very good forecaster and he's nailed some big time forecasts well in advance before everybody else. For instance, he was spot on about the 2011 Halloween Nor'easter. He also predicted before Hurricane Sandy even formed in the Western Carribean that it would eventually form into a hurricane and make landfall in New Jersey.

It's too bad Hillary didn't chose him as a running mate.

[Bryant]

Joe Bastardi.

Well D**n, if he said it then it must be true

[Jesse]

18z brought troughalicious back.