August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

That's the reason why I went with 98 in my forecast. It was evident the ridge would move from our west to our east today. This would give us offshore flow and the hottest days ever at PDX is when the thermal trough develops and moves to our east during the day and that's what occurred. It looks like I was also the only one to predict the low today at PDX which was 64.

 

This all despite the recurving typhoon never happened. 

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I've noticed the heat is sticking around longer into the night, and has been starting much earlier in the day as well.

 

We just went 35 days straight without falling below 70 degrees, numerous nights failed to drop below 80 degrees. Worst part is when temps soar into the 90-95 degree range by 9AM.

 

As for the QBO, it's controversial. I have a theory on it that I'll elaborate on later, but for now you can rest easy knowing a +QBO can only benefit you in a Niña winter.

 

I know that one thing that has gone hand in hand with our decaying winters in the NW has been progressively more extreme minus anomalies with the QBO during the negative phases.  It would sure be nice if this signaled an end to that trend.

[Deweydog]

Could be a pretty crookedly warm night.

[snow_wizard]

Could be a pretty crookedly warm night.

 

Lows may well be set tomorrow evening.

[Deweydog]

Lows may well be set tomorrow evening.

Maybe so, but that's for you anomaly-fretters to fret about.

[Phil]

Maybe so, but that's for you anomaly-fretters to fret about.

Sheesh, try any harder and you might have a stroke.

[Deweydog]

Sheesh, try any harder and you might have a stroke.

I'm not the one firing up the hyperbole train once again. "Hey, I can get their attention, just mention 2008-09! It's worked before!!!"

 

Whether or not it gets counterfeited, it could be a notably warm night for these parts. It's interesting to weather enthusiasts.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is going above normal today for August... took 3 days to wipe out the cold anomalies for the first third of the month.

[ShawniganLake]

Seems like the latest model runs are pulling back on the heat next week. But also seems like they are not sold on the idea of a prolonged crash for the last third of the month either.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like the latest model runs are pulling back on the heat next week. But also seems like they are not sold on the idea of a prolonged crash for the last third of the month either.

This weekend looked like it was going to feature a huge crash last weekend.

[Phil]

I'm not the one firing up the hyperbole train once again. "Hey, I can get their attention, just mention 2008-09! It's worked before!!!"

Or maybe I'm giving my honest thoughts on the matter?

 

You try so desperately to come off as "above the fray". It's just weird, dude. There's obviously something absent in your life.

[Deweydog]

Or maybe I'm giving my honest thoughts on the matter?

 

You try so desperately to come off as "above the fray". It's just weird, dude. There's obviously something absent in your life.

The act of simply being here makes you part of the fray. We're all weirdos.

 

And of course there's something absent from my life. Sustained cold anomalies. Duh.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Warm somewhat humid start to the day up here (already 75F / DP 62F). At the nearest station yesterday was the warmest day since June and, interestingly, warmer than any August day last year. Today the minimum is already running a couple degrees warmer than yesterday so if the max meets or exceeds the max yesterday this will be the hottest averaged day of the year so far; however, it's hard to tell if the cloud cover and humidity will prevent it from exceeding the June 5th max. I haven't checked other stations but I wouldn't be surprised if this were the case at other locations as well.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is quite different for later this coming week and weekend compared to its 00Z run. Looks a little warmer and less dynamic. Feels sort of like what happened with the trough that was supposed to be descending on us this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian is just ridgy right through day 10. Might be ahead of the other models again. Looking good.

[Deweydog]

That's an impressive thermal trough on the Canadian. Very early fallish.

[TT-SEA]

And suddenly the weather model maps section is missing from the wundermap site.

 

If they really took it down then I am going to have to spend some money.   I need access to ECMWF surface maps!

[Phil]

Models still look to be mishandling that second anticyclone over the NEPAC, IMO. Almost like models don't recognize WAF/MT interactions

[Phil]

And suddenly the weather model maps section is missing from the wundermap site.

 

If they really took it down then I am going to have to spend some money. I need access to ECMWF surface maps!

Would highly recommend WxBell. You get access to so much..EPS/CMC ensembles through day 15, ECMWF weeklies, individual soundings/meteograms from the ECMWF/EPS through day 15, etc.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is going above normal today for August... took 3 days to wipe out the cold anomalies for the first third of the month.

OLM still -1.6.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also much warmer and more progressive.

[Front Ranger]

It's a very close call either way with the pattern. Warm is probably a good bet. Followed by much cooler, as the Euro shows.

[TT-SEA]

It's a very close call either way with the pattern. Warm is probably a good bet. Followed by much cooler, as the Euro shows.

Not so sure about a sharp cool down... this is very much like how the models trended for this weekend as well.

 

Time will tell as usual.

[Deweydog]

It's a very close call either way with the pattern. Warm is probably a good bet. Followed by much cooler, as the Euro shows.

I agree. I think it'll cool down after it gets hot.

[TT-SEA]

As much as I love hot weather in the Summer. I definitely don't want to see these type of anomalies in the Winter.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

Looks unbelievably frigid in the Midwest! Extremely cold. First snow for Minnesota??

 

Boy they will love that pattern in the winter. We are screwed. I think it's all locked in now.

 

Thanks for the detailed maps... always appreciated.

[Phil]

(OT) Dewpoint @ JFK is 84 degrees right now, heat index is a whopping 121 degrees. DCA is 100/80, H/I of 120. Marshall is 99/87, H/I 131 degrees.

 

What a crazy airmass.

[Deweydog]

(OT) Dewpoint @ JFK is 84 degrees right now, heat index is a whopping 121 degrees. DCA is 100/80, H/I of 120. Marshall is 99/87, H/I 131 degrees.

 

What a crazy airmass.

JFK's current heat index is reported as 112, not 121.

[TT-SEA]

JFK's current heat index is reported as 112, not 121.

Still... it's impressive.

[James Jones]

(OT) Dewpoint @ JFK is 84 degrees right now, heat index is a whopping 121 degrees. DCA is 100/80, H/I of 120. Marshall is 99/87, H/I 131 degrees.

 

What a crazy airmass.

I imagine some of these locations are setting all time records for dewpoints?

[Phil]

JFK's current heat index is reported as 112, not 121.

Yeah sorry, had Dover AFB up there.

[Deweydog]

Still... it's impressive.

More like 33 up. That sounds horrible. I don't do humidity (real humidity) well at all.

[Phil]

I imagine some of these locations are setting all time records for dewpoints?

Up in NY/NE, might be close.

 

Not in the DC/PHI areas, though. Upper 70s/low 80s dewpoints occur basically every summer around here. Had the dewpoint reach 83 degrees here as recently as last September.

 

Big stuff was the 85-88 degree dewpoints in July of 2011.

[MossMan]

Perfect 86 degree afternoon up here!

[Phil]

That's the one thing I dislike about living in the PNW, we never experience the humidity you guys do on the East. I'm all for making the heat index go up in the Summer.

Have you ever actually experienced dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s? Just curious.

 

It's a completely different animal relative to the dry, crispy 110+ desert heat. Nothing prepares you for it, really.

[Phil]

The next several days are going to drive model huggers absolutely bonkers.

 

Will be another big shift over the NEPAC as the retrogression is realized.

[Deweydog]

I've lived in the PNW all my life so I've never experienced high dewpoints. I use the sauna frequently and I like it so I think I'll be able to handle it.

Do you live in a sauna?

[Phil]

I've lived in the PNW all my life so I've never experienced high dewpoints. I use the sauna frequently and I like it so I think I'll be able to handle it.

Imagine those conditions, except you're getting blasted with solar radiation at like 800W/m^2, and instead of sitting, you're walking around with the sun heating up your body and clothes, while your sweat is unable to evaporate efficiently and cool your body. Now imagine these conditions occurring through the entirety of the summer, so they're unavoidable unless you stay huddled up inside all day every day.

 

Maybe you'd love it (for a little while, at least), but I can't endure it for very long.

[ShawniganLake]

SEA is going above normal today for August... took 3 days to wipe out the cold anomalies for the first third of the month.

Looks like they may sneak in another 90 there this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like they may sneak in another 90 there this afternoon.

Maybe just briefly but still well on our way to a cold August.

[MossMan]

I am currently out in my garage after mowing listening to Raible/Moon broadcast the Seahawks game while its 90 degrees outside! Just doesn't seem right...Should be about 45 and drizzling!