September 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Well, after my post I realized that the correlation is strongest in winter, not certain that the rule holds in other seasons. As a matter of fact, I was there for my B-day Sept of '08 and it was cold! (like 39º in the afternoon cold) while back home we were getting hammered with hurricane remnant (Ike I think) and never got such a cold shot so maybe GEFS is correct. I'm fine with extended summer tbh but would like to see at least normal precip in Oct.  

 

Both GFS/EURO are showing a Typhoon targeting mainland China Day 8-10 and that suggests a ridge in the East.  If that plays out, it's going to warm up again.  Maybe not sustained 80's but mid/upper 70's (what you wished for)????

[jaster220]

/\  "perfect"! 

[OKwx2k4]

Awesome pic's and nice write-up of your chase NEJ. It's really sad about your experience with the NWS office. Had a regular poster/amateur forecaster up the road in Jackson who contacted GRR numerous times to offer his services for reporting snow and precip. because the amount of data from his region was sparse. They totally ignored him so don't feel singled out for poor treatment.

Happens in eastern Oklahoma A LOT also. If the NWS didn't warn the storm or it didn't kill/injure someone, it never happened. Underreported tornadoes down here happen around 3-5 times a year. It makes me mad when I watch it on radar and know that someone could potentially die (especially at night) but no one does anything about it.

[jaster220]

Euro says keep your torches lit boys..

 

 

[Niko]

A scorcher for sure as my temps this week will sore into the mid to upper 80s and a slight cooldown into the 70s next week.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro says keep your torches lit boys..

 

20160920 ECMWF 168-240hr 500mb.gif

One thing to keep note of when you look at the northern hemispheric pattern shown there. You see all that blocking?? That's impressive. It really applies to things later on down the road but it's worth remarking on nonetheless.

[Tom]

One thing to keep note of when you look at the northern hemispheric pattern shown there. You see all that blocking?? That's impressive. It really applies to things later on down the road but it's worth remarking on nonetheless.

Yup, once that jet strengthens enough to cause a flip, it can flip hard and quick.  I'm just wondering if we see a "tease" of that sometime in October.

[OKwx2k4]

Yup, once that jet strengthens enough to cause a flip, it can flip hard and quick. I'm just wondering if we see a "tease" of that sometime in October.

I watched JB'S video this morning and he did mention something along the lines of "when the cold does finally come, it's coming hard and fast." This is a pretty sharp tone adjustment from "blah blah, hurricane this, endless summer that." (Summarizing of course, lol) Been a broken record for 2 months on there. I think he's getting ready to modify his winter forecast from the boring one he had previously. Just my random opinion though.

[Tom]

I watched JB'S video this morning and he did mention something along the lines of "when the cold does finally come, it's coming hard and fast." This is a pretty sharp tone adjustment from "blah blah, hurricane this, endless summer that." (Summarizing of course, lol) Been a broken record for 2 months on there. I think he's getting ready to modify his winter forecast from the boring one he had previously. Just my random opinion though.

I think I'm going to subscribe to WxBell come October.  It'll be that time of year for me when hockey season finally begins and the new LRC develops!

[OKwx2k4]

I think I'm going to subscribe to WxBell come October. It'll be that time of year for me when hockey season finally begins and the new LRC develops!

Yeah, he may be winding down from hurricane mode over the next few weeks so it will be more worth it. I only subscribed for a year because a couple of months ago I won some pretty decent bank playing poker. Lol. So in actuality it was free I guess.

[jaster220]

I watched JB'S video this morning and he did mention something along the lines of "when the cold does finally come, it's coming hard and fast." This is a pretty sharp tone adjustment from "blah blah, hurricane this, endless summer that." (Summarizing of course, lol) Been a broken record for 2 months on there. I think he's getting ready to modify his winter forecast from the boring one he had previously. Just my random opinion though.

 

     What exactly was boring about it, do tell. 

[Niko]

Yes, please explain yourself thoroughly.

[Niko]

     What exactly was boring about it, do tell. 

I like the way you phrased that jaster.

[Thunder98]

Why does Minnesota and Wisconsin always seems to get those heavy rain events? Eau Claire, WI will see rain and thunderstorms for the next 7 days! Very wet!

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-91.48770414550786&lat=44.806996306274016#.V-HFd_ArKUk

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1474413983

 

[OKwx2k4]

What exactly was boring about it, do tell.

It's not really much to explain. That's the boring part. It had all the precision of the farmers almanac. Lol. He left himself open to say I told you so no matter what happens and I just can't stand that stuff. He's the type that says over and over about saying things that you can measure up against and then he sets a moving boundary for himself.

[james1976]

Flash Flood Watch here for the next couple days. Its been a wet summer. Hope that happens this winter! 
​Local met has upper 60s early next week, which would be a bit below normal.

[Tom]

Flash Flood Watch here for the next couple days. Its been a wet summer. Hope that happens this winter! 

​Local met has upper 60s early next week, which would be a bit below normal.

Agreed!  My area is getting hit by a nice line of storms bringing much needed heavy rain...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160921.1226.gif

 

 

 

Taking a look at the overnight model runs, the GFS has a meandering cut-off storm near the Midwest/Lakes region for most of next week.  The Euro also is pretty similar.  This type of set up will be difficult for the models to figure out.  Nonetheless, if it does, it would "feel" more like Autumn around these parts.

[jaster220]

It's not really much to explain. That's the boring part. It had all the precision of the farmers almanac. Lol. He left himself open to say I told you so no matter what happens and I just can't stand that stuff. He's the type that says over and over about saying things that you can measure up against and then he sets a moving boundary for himself.

 

It was their August release after all. Not defending nor supporting their strategy but I wouldn't personally want to go too far out on the limb from that range either. 

[Niko]

And the beat continues with no severe weather IMBY............

 

From NOAA:

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTTHERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHTONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT WILLHAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAYTHERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ACOLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[OKwx2k4]

It was their August release after all. Not defending nor supporting their strategy but I wouldn't personally want to go too far out on the limb from that range either.

I agree I suppose. But we know that we'll hear in January about how they said back in August that such and such would happen. I guess they don't exactly get to take the liberties that we do either with use of hypotheticals and "what ifs".

[jaster220]

I agree I suppose. But we know that we'll hear in January about how they said back in August that such and such would happen. I guess they don't exactly get to take the liberties that we do either with use of hypotheticals and "what ifs".

 

No they don't. And whereas I have no reputation on the line, they have a large audience of peers and customers and a reputation (good or not so good depending on your perspective). To compare our ideas and discussions in here to their broadly published actual forecast would be classic "armchair quarterbacking" imho.

[Hawkeye]

Models are really blocking things up next week.  The Euro looks the wettest, showing a north/south front stalling near us and a big wave shooting up the front from texas to the upper midwest, then cutting off.  I wish weather underground would get their euro maps back.

[NEJeremy]

I've uploaded the video of the short tornado to YouTube. It's not going to "blow you away", but it was still cool to see

[Tom]

Hey James, are you close to that Tornado warning in N IA???

[Thunder98]

Eau Claire, WI has seen over 1.45" in the since today! Anybody from WI be careful out there!

 

 

 

 

[Thunder98]

UPDATE: Eau Claire is now up to 2.55" today! Over 1" has fell in just 1 hour!

 

[Thunder98]

Eau Claire is up to 3.69" now! Another 1.14" fell in 1 hour! 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/us/wi/eau-claire/zmw:54701.1.99999

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEAU/2016/09/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Eau%20Claire&req_state=WI&reqdb.zip=54701&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Some impressive rainfall totals since yesterday afternoon...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/arx/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=98953

[Tom]

Here the latest JMA Weeklies...

[Tom]

Astronomical Fall begins at 9:21am today...it'll feel more like summer with the warmth and humidity!  Had some beneficial rains last night for most of N IL.  Most locals received 1/2" - 1.5".  I'm hearing that roads near the Mississippi River were washed out from the torrential rains last night near MN/WI region.

 

 

 

 

 

Last night's 00z Euro run has a cooler look next week compared to the GFS.  Models still having a tough time trying to figure out what to do as we undergo a massive change in the hemispheric flow due to the -NAO.

 

 

 

 

[Thunder98]

Eau Claire had 4.94" of rain yesterday broke the daily rainfall record of 4.12" back in 1986.

[Tom]

Local mets are now starting to drop temps next week Mon-Thu into the mid/upper 60's and lows in the 40's.  TBH, can't wait for some cooler weather!  GFS starting to show more run to run consistency on the cut-off low.  Let's see if the 12z Euro does the same.

[james1976]

Hey James, are you close to that Tornado warning in N IA???

This was an impressive storm. Fairly isolated. I didnt receive anything while 20 miles to my north was getting hammered with a backbuilding storm. There was atleast 1 tornado on the ground. Lots of damage. The town of Greene received 13.2" of rain!!! Devestating flooding in that area. The town has been evacuated. There is no way in or out of that town. Other towns close by were hit very hard as well. This all was just to my north. I sat on my deck last night for a bit and watched the lightning show. Constant lightning and thunder.....and this thing was a county away. Local met said the cloud tops were 70,000 feet!!

​This morning another round developed and I got hit with this one. I have 2.9" so far today. Lots of towns around my area are without power. This is not typical weather for late Sept. 

[Tom]

This was an impressive storm. Fairly isolated. I didnt receive anything while 20 miles to my north was getting hammered with a backbuilding storm. There was atleast 1 tornado on the ground. Lots of damage. The town of Greene received 13.2" of rain!!! Devestating flooding in that area. The town has been evacuated. There is no way in or out of that town. Other towns close by were hit very hard as well. This all was just to my north. I sat on my deck last night for a bit and watched the lightning show. Constant lightning and thunder.....and this thing was a county away. Local met said the cloud tops were 70,000 feet!!

​This morning another round developed and I got hit with this one. I have 2.9" so far today. Lots of towns around my area are without power. This is not typical weather for late Sept. 

Very impressive!  I watched that storm on radar and it wasn't moving at all for what seemed forever.  I guess you could say your lucky that you weren't affected by the storms severe side.  It's sometimes nice to sit on the "sidelines" and watch the storms light show from far away.  Many cities in the Midwest had a wild day/night yesterday.  It's going to quiet down for a little while as we move towards the weekend.

 

Meanwhile, 12z Euro came in colder for mid next week.  Some 850's below 0C showing up near the Lakes region....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092212/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

[Hawkeye]

Yesterday's 12z euro run had upper teens 850 temps in Michigan thanks to the big upper low cutting off to the west.  Today's 12z has no cutoff low and zero temps.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro is sketchy at best right now due to the AO/NAO/EPO flip that's coming up. Only thing to be sure of at the moment is that there's a cool shot coming. I'll take it.

[Tom]

Interesting stat by Dr. Ryan Maue...that'll do the trick to fill up Lake Michigan.  This summer's rainy trend has raised the water levels nearly 4" from last year!

 

 

[jaster220]

Very impressive!  I watched that storm on radar and it wasn't moving at all for what seemed forever.  I guess you could say your lucky that you weren't affected by the storms severe side.  It's sometimes nice to sit on the "sidelines" and watch the storms light show from far away.  Many cities in the Midwest had a wild day/night yesterday.  It's going to quiet down for a little while as we move towards the weekend.

 

Meanwhile, 12z Euro came in colder for mid next week.  Some 850's below 0C showing up near the Lakes region....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092212/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

 

Looking like the Euro is trying to confirm my earlier post and put the 8-10 day rule into play. The chill on the other side of the globe was on the 19th (+9 days) = voila! 28th of September. Let's see how it turns out..

[james1976]

Flooding is getting bad around here. My property is fine for now atleast. Ive had 5" so far with this system.

[jaster220]

Flooding is getting bad around here. My property is fine for now atleast. Ive had 5" so far with this system.

 

I'd like to know what all that moisture out there means for the winter ahead??