September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

FWIW... the most recent ECMWF weeklies are warm starting later next week until the end of the run in the middle of October.

 

Honestly... I sense some unhappy cold anomaly fans coming up here through most of October.

 

Just a feeling.

 

Nature will probably deliver 45 days of warmth to offset 10 days of a little cool weather.

I think October is going to be an absolute b**tch to forecast.

 

I have zero idea as to how it'll go down.

[TT-SEA]

I think October is going to be an absolute b**tch to forecast.

 

I have zero idea as to how it'll go down.

 

 

That probably means warm out here.  

 

(I updated my post after seeing the CFS is exactly the same as the ECMWF weeklies with nothing but warm anomalies out west)

[Phil]

Looking at the EPS weeklies, they actually have the primary trough axis in the western US from mid/late September into very early October, before all agreement is lost thereafter through mid October.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the EPS weeklies, they actually have the primary trough axis in the western US from mid/late September into very early October, before all agreement is lost thereafter through mid October.

 

 

What am I missing?   Here is 9/25 through 10/3 for example from the latest ECMWF weeklies.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Or, maybe you're just not very good at reading social cues?

I am very good at seeing social cues, you get mad when questioned, others get mad because their ideal weather does not match others.. I don't care either way but getting a rise out of you is so easy its uncanny. You can't help yourself....

[GHweatherChris]

I think October is going to be an absolute b**tch to forecast.

 

I have zero idea as to how it'll go down.

Good thing October is a month that will not produce the winter weather alot of us are looking for anyways.

[Phil]

What am I missing? Here is the 9/25 through 10/3 for example from the latest ECMWF weeklies.

 

Ah, those are the maps w/ subtracted hindcast climatology. Can be beneficial when agreement is poor, and sometimes they'll verify better if the underlying pattern isn't one that'll bias the parent model, but in cases like this, I (personally) wouldn't rely on them too heavily.

 

This is the link for the raw output. Click where it says "ECMWF EPS Weeklies":

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/weekly_eps.php

[TT-SEA]

Ah, those are the maps w/ subtracted hindcast climatology. Can be beneficial when agreement is poor, and sometimes they'll verify better if the underlying pattern isn't one that'll bias the parent model, but in cases like this, I (personally) wouldn't rely on them too heavily.

 

This is the link for the raw output. Click where it says "ECMWF EPS Weeklies":

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/weekly_eps.php

 

 

OK... thanks.

 

The link you sent shows 850mb temp anomalies either normal or above normal for the PNW pretty much through the entire run after about 9/11.

[Phil]

I am very good at seeing social cues....

I don't think you are, because in spite of conveying to you that I'm not "offended", you keep insisting that I am. Bizarre.

[Phil]

OK... thanks.

 

The link you sent shows 850mb temp anomalies either normal or above normal for the PNW pretty much through the entire run after about 9/11.

I personally just analyze the trough/ridge orientation(s), as depicted at 500mb. If you're looking coherence in the air temperatures, then yeah I'd agree the subtracted hindcast climatology maps you were originally looking at are probably better, since they won't have that raging warm bias globally.

 

The control run is another story, but relying on that member alone is quite risky.

[TT-SEA]

I personally just analyze the trough/ridge orientation(s), as depicted at 500mb. If you're looking coherence in the air temperatures, then yeah I'd agree the subtracted hindcast climatology maps you were originally looking at are probably better, since they won't have that raging warm bias globally.

 

The control run is another story, but relying on that member alone is quite risky.

 

 

Good information again... more complicated to navigate than I thought.   Just an amazing amount of data to sort though!   

[stuffradio]

Quite an interesting pattern being forecasted for the second half of September, especially by the GEFS. Notable poleward displacement of the climatological anticyclones. This would increase the potential for a wave to break right into the Arctic circle at some point in late September.

What would that mean for snow lovers in Nov/December?

[stuffradio]

Good information again... more complicated to navigate than I thought.   Just an amazing amount of data to sort though!   

Barney makes it down to California by day 21! haha

[MossMan]

Windy over there?

Back on now! but it was a great practice run with the generator since I hadn't run it this year and getting my extension cords together, ect. Bring on the storms!!! (October 15th and on anyway)

[GHweatherChris]

I don't think you are, because in spite of conveying to you that I'm not "offended", you keep insisting that I am. Bizarre.

Quit replying then.... Replying to every jab at you tells the truth, and you do every time.

[Bryant]

I know he is a smart dude, but he is completely oblivious to how he is percieved here, he doesn't get it.

 

Why you defend him is baffling.

 

Anyone that gets offended by internet forum oponions has more issues than I can imagine!

He isn't the only one that gets offended, not even close.

[Bryant]

Back on now! but it was a great practice run with the generator since I hadn't run it this year and getting my extension cords together, ect. Bring on the storms!!! (October 15th and on anyway)

Good to hear it. You lose power often enough to warrant having a generator? Suppose it would be nice to have one regardless

[Deweydog]

I hate being challenged? Look in the mirror.

 

I jokingly poked you (I didn't even call you out directly) and your response was a super defensive, long winded novel about how I'm a liar, an attention seeker, an exaggerator, etc. Literally a dramatic, exaggeratory rant about me being dramatic and exaggeratory. Come on, even you have to admit the ridiculousness of this.

 

 

You've said this a million times. You have this tendency (I'm not sure if it's conscious or subconscious) to analyze, critique, and label people by character and/or motivation. It's quite off putting, to say the least.

Case in point.

[Phil]

Case in point.

Case in pointless.

[Phil]

What would that mean for snow lovers in Nov/December?

High latitude blocking would be favored. Can't take it much father than that, IMO.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS says that 9/11 is in fact warm as usual.    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_189_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is a nice run.   

 

Randy - don't put away the water toys yet.    

[MossMan]

Good to hear it. You lose power often enough to warrant having a generator? Suppose it would be nice to have one regardless

Yeah we loose power quite often in the winter, last year we spent probably a total of 5 days without power between the Aug storm and the Novenber one.

[MossMan]

00Z GFS is a nice run.

 

Randy - don't put away the water toys yet.

Awesome!!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah we loose power quite often in the winter, last year we spent probably a total of 5 days without power between the Aug storm and the Novenber one.

 

 

I hated that when we moved in here... always losing power.     I said it before...but the windstorm in 2006 was a major blessing in disguise.     Completely rebuilt system and underground for us all the way to the main area in North Bend and Safeway.    We never lose power for anything now (only exception being the ice storm in 2012).

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday and Wednesday look like pretty solid marine layer days for some cool anomalies.

[Jesse]

Lots of 40s likely tonight. Possible even at PDX if the stars align.

[BLI snowman]

In the really bizarre category....PDX had a -7.5 today while Bellingham had a +2.

 

Kind of the same thing we saw in July with southern areas being more anomalously cold.

 

Sort of the opposite of 2008 so far, when Seattle-northward was consistently the target of the coolest anomalies. 

[Jesse]

Sort of the opposite of 2008 so far, when Seattle-northward was consistently the target of the coolest anomalies. 

 

This has been a much warmer year overall than 2008, though.

[BLI snowman]

This has been a much warmer year overall than 2008, though.

 

Indeed.

 

The whole OR cooler than WA relative to average thing is kind of a warm ENSO hallmark though, and we still haven't quite shaken that.

[Jesse]

Indeed.

 

The whole OR cooler than WA relative to average thing is kind of a warm ENSO hallmark though, and we still haven't quite shaken that.

 

Someday.

 

Maybe once we get through the warmest September/October in history which is basically a lock at this point.

[Jesse]

Still a lot of 00z ensemble members going for the clipper around the 10th. Enough to pull the mean down in that period.

[BLI snowman]

Someday.

 

Maybe once we get through the warmest September/October in history which is basically a lock at this point.

 

Well, big 500mb ridges in October not only begin to carry inversion potential by late in the month, but they are also seemingly very likely to carry sharp retrogression potential for us. We often see a dramatic plunge in October after a really large-scale, anomalous upper level ridge. Arguably more than any other month, for whatever reason.

 

What would be nice to avoid is the persistently mild, onshore flow laden stuff of the last couple Octobers. Frost in October can happen even with a big ridge (e.g. early October 2012). I'm rooting for October frost to happen again at least once in my lifetime. 

[Jesse]

Well, big 500mb ridges in October not only begin to carry inversion potential by late in the month, but they are also seemingly very likely to carry sharp retrogression potential for us. We often see a dramatic plunge in October after a really large-scale, anomalous upper level ridge. Arguably more than any other month, for whatever reason.

 

What would be nice to avoid is the persistently mild, onshore flow laden stuff of the last couple Octobers. Frost in October can happen even with a big ridge (e.g. early October 2012). I'm rooting for October frost to happen again at least once in my lifetime. 

 

Could not agree more. The May in October crap the last two years was nauseating.

 

Some anomalous October ridging is wonderful as long as it isn't centered well inland. Even October 2013 had plenty the last half of the month and that month was a beauty. Our last decent October.

[BLI snowman]

Could not agree more. The May in October crap the last two years was nauseating.

 

Some anomalous October ridging is wonderful as long as it isn't centered well inland. Even October 2013 had plenty the last half of the month and that month was a beauty. Our last decent October.

 

Also an example of a retrograding ridge. That ridge to clipper transition from the 24th to 28th was sexy as hell.

[Phil]

The CMC ensembles look absolutely nothing like the GEFS in the d11-15 range.

[wx_statman]

Also an example of a retrograding ridge. That ridge to clipper transition from the 24th to 28th was sexy as hell.

 

Sexy as hell would be 2003. 

 

This one was all right though. Cut Bank had a high of 69 on the 26th and 20 on the 28th. Definitely a nice crash. 

[Brennan]

The back and forths on this forum resemble fights with my ex girlfriends. Except on here there is no breaking up.

 

Hi Bryant feeling really good about your location this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Temps are really dropping tonight.  Bellingham has improved on their morning low by 7 degrees so far.  The pattern for the next week looks good to deliver very decent low temps on most days.

 

As far as the possible ridge / warming late next week...I'm betting it will be short lived due to the MJO being in an entirely different region than it was in August.  The position progged for one week from now normally favors troughing in the NW.  As a result any ridge is going to be tenuous.

[snow_wizard]

The back and forths on this forum resemble fights with my ex girlfriends. Except on here there is no breaking up.

 

Hi Bryant feeling really good about your location this winter.

 

Very likely to be some fun this time around!