October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

12z GEFS showing some strong members for early next week system...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101112/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_30.png

[james1976]

I love that we have a system to track. Even tho its not snow, it is still exciting and builds anticipation for the winter season.

[jaster220]

I think I am a bit out of place geographically for this thread as it appears many are in the Ohio Valley/Lakes region, but I am just looking for people's opinions on MN. I know my winters have been about as dismal as they come with sharp snow gradients and little to no cold or snow. Does this pattern shift help that or do we get stuck with the short end of the stick again? By the way, this is one of my favorite forums, very informative and interesting!

 

Welcome Stormgeek!  I think Tom would agree that this regional Sub-forum covers MN. I know we have some WI posters in the winter and perhaps even some in MN as well. This is a great Sub-forum mainly thanks to Tom's proactive involvement and professionalism. I too am finding it to be my fave forum 

 

>>>NOT GOING TO EVEN ATTEMPT TO CALL YOUR WINTER

[Tom]

Welcome Stormgeek!  I think Tom would agree that this regional Sub-forum covers MN. I know we have some WI posters in the winter and perhaps even some in MN as well. This is a great Sub-forum mainly thanks to Tom's proactive involvement and professionalism. I too am finding it to be my fave forum 

 

>>>NOT GOING TO EVEN ATTEMPT TO CALL YOUR WINTERmuch better season should be in store for you than last Dec.

Well said and thanks for the compliment!  I think all of us in the sub forum stand a better shot at December ending up being better than the last 2 combined!  Nothing is worse than a warm/wet and brown holiday season with no snow OTG!  Just doesn't get me in the holiday spirit.

[Stormgeek]

Thanks for your input Tom and Jaster. I am quite near the cities on the northern side. I was not fishing for a winter call, was just wondering how this pattern changes things as something needs to change before I go bonkers with systems dropping 10+ south of the cities and then 1-2 north of the cities where I am at. Obviously 2013-2014 would be the best as that was the coldest and snowiest winter I have endured. However, not expecting that as it was a once in a long time winter. For now I will keep lurking until the first big storm starts to bear down on the region!

[jaster220]

Thanks for your input Tom and Jaster. I am quite near the cities on the northern side. I was not fishing for a winter call, was just wondering how this pattern changes things as something needs to change before I go bonkers with systems dropping 10+ south of the cities and then 1-2 north of the cities where I am at. Obviously 2013-2014 would be the best as that was the coldest and snowiest winter I have endured. However, not expecting that as it was a once in a long time winter. For now I will keep lurking until the first big storm starts to bear down on the region!

 

My sis and fam have been in the Twin Cities since 1986 and there have been seasons when it's the complete opposite and your north side gets hammered. All about cycles. When they left the Detroit burbs, they hit a streak of quiet winters there and said Detroit got more snow! LOL, especially for that era ('87 to '98). Then they got 28" with the Halloween of '91 storm and I never heard them complain again. Just sayin, timing is everything and don't count out another block-buster season just cuz of three years ago. In 2007-08 Marshall scored roughly 86" (172% normal) and the very next year scored 98" (196% normal). It can happen, even back-to-back so don't presume it won't.   

[Niko]

Welcome aboard Stormgeek.

 

This is a fun forum. You will enjoy reading everyone's feedbacks. Lots of great discussions and ideas.

[james1976]

Thanks for your input Tom and Jaster. I am quite near the cities on the northern side. I was not fishing for a winter call, was just wondering how this pattern changes things as something needs to change before I go bonkers with systems dropping 10+ south of the cities and then 1-2 north of the cities where I am at. Obviously 2013-2014 would be the best as that was the coldest and snowiest winter I have endured. However, not expecting that as it was a once in a long time winter. For now I will keep lurking until the first big storm starts to bear down on the region!

Hey Stormgeek! This is my fav forum as well. Im constantly checking in. As for storms.....looks like your area may be getting a woundup system next week. Prolly not snow but something to build excitement for the upcoming season. Many of us may be affected by this system.

[jaster220]

Come winter, this would be a sweet arctic front style hard-hitter with the lake involved (whiteouts anyone?)

 

 

[james1976]

Come winter, this would be a sweet arctic front style hard-hitter with the lake involved (whiteouts anyone?)

 

20161011 48hr Surf Intellicast graphic.PNG

Hopefully when the pattern cycles thru!

[jaster220]

The use of a "Hard Freeze Warning" (deep purple) out west tells me this talk of winter hitting hard with a vengeance could be f'real

 

 

[james1976]

High pressure is supposed to sit right over IA tomorrow night. First freeze looking likely!

[james1976]

How do you post screen shots in here? Thanks

[OKwx2k4]

How do you post screen shots in here? Thanks

Do you post from mobile or computer?

[james1976]

Both but was trying to post a screen shot from mobile

[Tom]

Both but was trying to post a screen shot from mobile

It's the same way you do on the comp but on mobile you need to upload from your photos album.  You have to go through the same motions by clicking "More Reply Options", then "Choose File", then "Attach This File"...finally.."Add Reply"

[Tom]

Gotta say, it's been a rather beautiful Autumn day today.  It was a little cloudy this morning, but clouds cleared up just after 1pm.  High temp so far 73F!  I love the smell in the air while driving with the windows rolled down this time of year.  TBH, I catch myself at times having visions of what this Winter season could look like. 

 

12z EPS also on board with a storm near the GL early next week.  As soon as the Euro's bias of "dragging it's feet" in the SW clears up, it'll be in more agreement in coming days.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016101112/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

EPS signaling a faster cool down early next week starting next Wed/Thu post early week's storm.  Plains begin the cool down...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016101112/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016101112/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

[Tom]

High pressure is supposed to sit right over IA tomorrow night. First freeze looking likely!

Just flipped through all the high rez models and all of them show freezing temps in your area.  Parts of NW IL area also showing temps in the upper 20's.  Should expedite the fall colors!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016101118/nam4km_T2m_ncus_38.png

[james1976]

Here comes the cold front!

[james1976]

Long range but check out these daytime temps for the upper Midwest. Models have been pretty consistent with cooler weather showing up 2nd half of the month.

[james1976]

DMX talking about next week's system:
At the end of the forecast
period, from about next Monday night onward, there is significant
divergence among long term model solutions for the evolution of
the aforementioned series of approaching waves. The ECMWF is more
progressive and dampened with these next storm systems, while the
GFS is latched onto solutions that concentrate on one much
stronger trough that bombs out near Iowa/Minnesota on Tuesday. At
this range there is little to support going full bore on either of
these solutions and will maintain chance POPs and moderate
temperatures.
 

[Tom]

Historic 9th and the Cub's punch their ticket to the NLCS!!!!  Atta boys...one step closer to a Title!

 

00z GFS still with a vigorous system Tue/Wed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_28.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101200/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_29.png

[james1976]

[jaster220]

Historic 9th and the Cub's punch their ticket to the NLCS!!!!  Atta boys...one step closer to a Title!

 

00z GFS still with a vigorous system Tue/Wed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_28.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101200/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_29.png

 

Congrats Tom on getting past SF!  Adding to this short list would be a great way to head into the winter season. 

 

 

 

(hopefully we see these storms materialize and not vanish like so many G(host) F(antasy) S(torms) long rangers in recent years.   

[james1976]

Nice temp spread across IA

[Tom]

Fall colors in full effect in the U.P. of Michigan...

 

 

 

 

A wintry scene yesterday for Livingston, MT!  Ol' Man Winter slowly making his way down into the lower 48...

 

 

 

 

I'd say this looks like a typical Autumn day graphic...hope to get some storms today...waiting for the temp drop tonight!

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=62485

[Tom]

Who's ready for some Indian Summer weather this weekend into early next week???  I think I'm going to be taking care of some yard work during this nice stretch.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101206/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4.png

 

 

 

The weather for Game 1 of the NLCS at Wrigley looks superb....@ Gabel, are you coming to Chicago to see a game or two???

 

[james1976]

Since i got to work at 630 the temp has dropped from 49 to 46. Cloudy and windy. Leaves are really coming down.

[Niko]

Who's ready for some Indian Summer weather this weekend into early next week???  I think I'm going to be taking care of some yard work during this nice stretch.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101206/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4.png

 

 

 

The weather for Game 1 of the NLCS at Wrigley looks superb....@ Gabel, are you coming to Chicago to see a game or two???

 

I am for sure. Great opportunity to do some yard work, just like you mentioned above. Wow, look at those balmy 70's and possibly mid to upper 70s at that. Enjoy!

[Niko]

Since i got to work at 630 the temp has dropped from 49 to 46. Cloudy and windy. Leaves are really coming down.

Hello Autumn!  

[Niko]

I think this chilly airmass coming midweek will be a tad colder than the one we had over the weekend. Someone will be in the upper 20s here in SEMI Thursday night. My lows are expected to be in the low 30s. Perhaps those true rural areas stand a chance.

[gabel23]

Who's ready for some Indian Summer weather this weekend into early next week???  I think I'm going to be taking care of some yard work during this nice stretch.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101206/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4.png

 

 

 

The weather for Game 1 of the NLCS at Wrigley looks superb....@ Gabel, are you coming to Chicago to see a game or two???

 

I won't make it this year, I was lucky to have the chance of getting tickets last year! I did put my name in for the lottery drawing again but I doubt I get the tickets two years in a row.......That was an amazing game last night, GO CUBS GO!!

[westMJim]

Not sure about other areas but here in west Michigan the color is later then it has been in the past.  Still very little color here in my area.

[westMJim]

Here in Grand Rapids we now have had 5 months in a row (May thru September) of above average temperatures.  This happing in the “warm” months of the year are kind of rare.  Here in Grand Rapids I did not find a year that has had it above average ever month from May to September and this year we may have that happing between May to October!  There are some years that came close 1921, 1931, 2010 and 2012. But each of those years had one month that was either average or fell just below average. So what will this mean?  That is to be seen. I guess the better question is when will this end and when is dose end how long will the below average months last?

[jaster220]

Not sure about other areas but here in west Michigan the color is later then it has been in the past.  Still very little color here in my area.

 

Last year's pattern of being warmer area lives on..SE MI has actually been colder than SW MI.

[jaster220]

Here in Grand Rapids we now have had 5 months in a row (May thru September) of above average temperatures.  This happing in the “warm” months of the year are kind of rare.  Here in Grand Rapids I did not find a year that has had it above average ever month from May to September and this year we may have that happing between May to October!  There are some years that came close 1921, 1931, 2010 and 2012. But each of those years had one month that was either average or fell just below average. So what will this mean?  That is to be seen. I guess the better question is when will this end and when is dose end how long will the below average months last?

 

Good to see you posting again westMJim!  I think we're in for a dose of balancing out. 2010-2012 we got 3 mostly above normal years. Followed by 3 mostly below normal years. The heat generally peaked in summer 2012 and the cold generally tanked it's lowest in Feb 2015, both at the tail end of their respective streaks. It'd be just like Ma Nature to balance this string of consistent warm months with the opposite this winter. 

[james1976]

Having a hard time getting to 40 in parts of IA.

[james1976]

Active GFS. If these systems were during winter there would be some long nights of storm tracking!

[james1976]

Look at that powerhouse crashing into the NW.

[Tom]

Look at that powerhouse crashing into the NW.

That's actually remnants of the Typhoon that re-curved in the W PAC.  Interesting system for those in the NW PAC..I'm sure Geo's is tracking this one!