October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Nature is trying to make you feel better... now that all hope is lost that your beloved Trump will be president.  

 

Not sure where you got that.  Poll numbers for Trump have come up again since the slight dip after the debate.  I will say Trump MUST keep Hillary from getting his goat on the next debate though.  I'm sure his advisors have told him that ad nauseam.

[snow_wizard]

Do you mean the 500mb pattern?

 

No...the 850mb temperature graph.  We are getting to the time of year where below normal 850s almost always mean below normal temps.  At least more so than summer.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure where you got that.  Poll numbers for Trump have come up again since the slight dip after the debate.  I will say Trump MUST keep Hillary from getting his goat on the next debate though.  I'm sure his advisors have told him that ad nauseam.

 

 

Haven't seen the news today huh?

 

Even some republicans calling for him to drop out now.  

 

He is done.  

[TT-SEA]

No...the 850mb temperature graph.  We are getting to the time of year where below normal 850s almost always mean below normal temps.  At least more so than summer.

 

 

You have never seen this 850mb pattern so early in the season?   

[Phil]

Wow, the 00Z GFS is a huge outlier in the long range. That ridge is off by itself.

I wouldn't say "huge" outlier. The 00z ensemble mean has it too, at least at 500mb, but it looks transient.

 

The continued massive downstream blocking is certainly very intriguing, as well. Ridging over the pole, to Alaska, all the way to Greenland.

[Jesse]

I wouldn't say "huge" outlier. The 00z ensemble mean has it too, at least at 500mb, but it looks transient.

 

The continued massive downstream blocking is certainly very intriguing, as well. Ridging over the pole, to Alaska, all the way to Greenland.

 

Toaster bath!

[Deweydog]

You have never seen this 850mb pattern so early in the season?

Jesus Christ, Tim. He's talking about this weekend's baroclinicity. It's pretty unusual for early October.

[Jesse]

Jesus Christ, Tim. He's talking about this weekend's baroclinicity. It's pretty unusual for early October.

Indeed. Your 11/19/03 comparison earlier today was pretty apt.

[TT-SEA]

Jesus Christ, Tim. He's talking about this weekend's baroclinicity. It's pretty unusual for early October.

 

 

Jesus Christ Matt... it was honest question.   I did not know and I asked.    Sorry for asking.   

[snow_wizard]

Haven't seen the news today huh?

 

Even some republicans calling for him to drop out now.  

 

He is done.  

 

I admit that is bad.  On the other hand I think they dropped this bombshell too early.  People have short memories these days.  Me bets the Republicans have something damning on Hillary that will be upcoming.

[TT-SEA]

I thought Matt was talking about 11/19/03 for next weekend and I couldn't figure it out.    Now I understand.     

 

I remember a few other situations like this that brought snow to my house.

[snow_wizard]

You have never seen this 850mb pattern so early in the season?   

 

I thought you were referencing another post.  I did mean the 500mb pattern.  I never remember seeing what is basically an Arctic blast setup (if it were winter) so early in the season before.  The more I look at this the more convinced I am we are going to see some really nice low temps early next week.  The WRF is only going 52 to 56 for highs on Monday with sunshine and north winds.  Fabulous leaf turning weather!

[TT-SEA]

I admit that is bad.  On the other hand I think they dropped this bombshell too early.  People have short memories these days.  Me bets the Republicans have something damning on Hillary that will be upcoming.

 

 

Republicans are abandoning ship on Trump.    

[snow_wizard]

Toaster bath!

 

I hate toaster baths!

[TT-SEA]

You are such a pathetic tool.

 

 

I did not understand what he was talking about.   I asked the question.    

 

Is that bad?  

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

I thought you were referencing another post.  I did mean the 500mb pattern.  I never remember seeing what is basically an Arctic blast setup (if it were winter) so early in the season before.  The more I look at this the more convinced I am we are going to see some really nice low temps early next week.  The WRF is only going 52 to 56 for highs on Monday with sunshine and north winds.  Fabulous leaf turning weather!

 

 

I understand now.     

 

WRF will be to too low for highs in this situation.   GFS MOS has 61.   

[snow_wizard]

Republicans are abandoning ship on Trump.    

 

He has been totally in this race lately.  I think we need to wait and see how it plays out.

[TT-SEA]

He has been totally in this race lately.  I think we need to wait and see how it plays out.

 

Naahhh... he is done.   

 

Creates a huge problem for the party.

[Jesse]

I did not understand what he was talking about. I asked the question.

 

Is that bad?

Cut the innocent act. So transparent.

 

Are you just putting on the show for yourself? Because no one else is buying it.

[Phil]

New Euro monthlies come out in 12hrs!

[TT-SEA]

Cut the innocent act. So transparent.

 

Are you just putting on the show for yourself? Because no one else is buying it.

 

 

OK... this is just stupid.   I did not know what he was talking about.   Screw you and your relentless personal attacks during a normal conversation.   

[TT-SEA]

I did not follow Matt either on 11-19-03 but did not ask the question.   

 

If I did... then I would have understood Jim's comment as well.   

[Jesse]

OK... this is just stupid. I did not know what he was talking about. Screw you and your relentless personal attacks during a normal conversation.

No...that's what you do. Just in a weasly, spineless, passive aggressive way these days.

 

I'm the fourth or fifth person to point it out in the last 24 hours. It's you.

[TT-SEA]

No...that's what you do. Just in a weasly, spineless, passive aggressive way these days.

 

I'm the fourth or fifth person to point it out in the last 24 hours. It's you.

 

 

Are you seriously attacking me like this because I did not understand the references?

 

I really did not understand.   I frickin asked a question.   

 

I have been pointing out how much I like the improvements in the weekend all day.     Sunday went from pouring rain all day to sunny and in the low 60s.  

[stuffradio]

Cut the innocent act. So transparent.

 

Are you just putting on the show for yourself? Because no one else is buying it.

Glass, meet brick. It gets tiring to read posts like these from people who have others on the ignore list.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has heavy rain into the Portland area on Sunday afternoon now while mostly dry around Seattle.

 

Even on the reliable ECMWF that band on Sunday has gone from north of Vancouver BC down to Portland in the last 2 days (4 runs).

 

Go northern stream! Hoping for a little more in that trend southward before Sunday.

[Jesse]

Glass, meet brick. It gets tiring to read posts like these from people who have others on the ignore list.

I thought you had me on ignore.

[TT-SEA]

I thought you were referencing another post.  I did mean the 500mb pattern.  I never remember seeing what is basically an Arctic blast setup (if it were winter) so early in the season before.  The more I look at this the more convinced I am we are going to see some really nice low temps early next week.  The WRF is only going 52 to 56 for highs on Monday with sunshine and north winds.  Fabulous leaf turning weather!

 

 

And by the way Jim... thank you for answering my question.    It is actually appreciated.

[stuffradio]

I thought you had me on ignore.

No, I haven't said that publicly in the forum.

[TT-SEA]

No...that's what you do. Just in a weasly, spineless, passive aggressive way these days.

 

I'm the fourth or fifth person to point it out in the last 24 hours. It's you.

 

 

BTW - I have a bunch of PMs from people recently saying you are the real problem.    You take it to another level with the personal attacks.  

[Weather101]

Republicans are abandoning ship on Trump.

Hillary and Trump both suck.

[snow_wizard]

Hillary and Trump both suck.

 

It is rather mystifying that out of over 200 million people we didn't end up with better candidates.

[snow_wizard]

New Euro monthlies come out in 12hrs!

 

Keep us posted, even though the weeklies have been dubious lately.

[Phil]

Never in a million years would I have thought I'd be voting for Hillary Clinton in a presidential election. She's been my least favorite politician for awhile now.

 

I'll have to douse myself with oxyclean afterwards, but there's really no viable, electable alternative to Trump.

[Weather101]

Never in a million years would I have thought I'd be voting for Hillary Clinton in a presidential election. She's been my least favorite politician for awhile now.

 

I'll have to douse myself with oxyclean afterwards, but there's really no viable, electable alternative to Trump.

Great post, 100% agree.

[ShawniganLake]

Wet morning here with 1.25" since midnight. Pretty chilly on the north side of this system with the snow level around 3000ft on central Vancouver island.

[Bryant]

BTW - I have a bunch of PMs from people recently saying you are the real problem. You take it to another level with the personal attacks.

Hard to imagine anyone on this forum feeling bad for you, especially to the point of sending you PM's to make you feel better

[Jesse]

Hard to imagine anyone on this forum feeling bad for you, especially to the point of sending you PM's to make you feel better

Yeah, that sounded made up.

 

Regardless, I don't want to get drug into the mud anymore. So I will likely go back to refraining from responding. It's difficult when someone so guilty acts so innocent. It makes you wonder if they've gotten to the point where they have actually got themselves convinced.

 

For hating Trump so much he and Tim certainly have some uncanny similarities.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to imagine anyone on this forum feeling bad for you, especially to the point of sending you PM's to make you feel better

 

 

I don't care what you can imagine.     Even includes message from admin.