October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

It was a close one, but this 70 was well advertised.

It may have been 69.5!

 

#muddyingthewater

[Brennan]

[luminen]

I miss Dave Schwartz and Hillary Andrews on TWC. That was like 10 or 13 years ago.

 

52F for a high here today. It's been raining most of the day but it's done now.

[snow_wizard]

It may have been 69.5!

 

#muddyingthewater

 

What if it was 69.49999?  That would technically round to 69, but in reality they would call it 70.

[Deweydog]

What if it was 69.49999? That would technically round to 69, but in reality they would call it 70.

They're conspiring against you Jim, an effort bankrolled by an anonymous, affluent King County foothills resident.

[ShawniganLake]

What if it was 69.49999? That would technically round to 69, but in reality they would call it 70.

Canadians record temps to the nearest tenth to avoid these disasters.

[wx_statman]

It may have been 69.5!

 

#muddyingthewater

 

In the cold, cruel world of math 69.5 still counts!

[Karl Bonner]

So an October warm spell that was slated for us, has morphed into a Sunday rainstorm and cool east wind Monday/Tuesday.  Who would've guessed?!? 

 

My guess is that we haven't seen the last of the weirdness.  Late Thursday night was VERY wet in the Gorge, far more than any of the forecasts seemed to be suggesting. 

 

Here are some possible weird scenarios:

 

1.  Late October fogversion.  Big upper-level ridge in late October after we have 5" or more of rainwater in the ground.  Would be a nice test to see how early in the season we can get the chilly inversion pattern to set up. 

 

2.  Late October cold east wind.  Think of what happened in the 2nd week of October 2009 or for that matter, on a couple different Halloweens back in the 2000s.  It definitely COULD happen one of these years, and depending on the timing it would likely set tons of new daily record low temps.

 

3.  Historic Windstorm.  Given how active the storm track looks late next week and beyond, I wouldn't be surprised if something serious were to cook up.

[wx_statman]

The absolute best was when it was around Christmas, December through early January when they'd play holiday music... that coupled with winter weather advisory or any snow in the forecast... Take me back!!! Loved local on the 8's. "Tonight, Clear and Cold. Lows in the lower to mid 20's. Tomorrow, highs near 30, increasing clouds with snow increasing late. Tomorrow night, heavy snow, low 23, accumilations 4 to 6 inches."...

 

WEATHER CHANNEL FTW

 

Memories! 

[wx_statman]

I miss Dave Schwartz and Hillary Andrews on TWC. That was like 10 or 13 years ago.

 

52F for a high here today. It's been raining most of the day but it's done now.

 

My favorite. Along with Sharon Resultan.

[TT-SEA]

They're conspiring against you Jim, an effort bankrolled by an anonymous, affluent King County foothills resident.

 

 

That was told to you in confidence.  

[MossMan]

[Brennan]

I will never forget Christmas night 1996 when suddenly the winter storm watches came out of nowhere and were highlighted on TWC on the 8's coupled with the Christmas music...that was magical!!!

Gives me goosebumps... even though i missed it!!!

[MossMan]

Gives me goosebumps... even though i missed it!!!

I wished I would have recorded it!

[crf450ish]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com

 

latest post is very in depth analysis of our upcoming trend. Good stuff. 

[Bryant]

I don't know much about their winter forecasts, to be honest.

 

I do remember that in the 1990's their on-air coverage of west coast weather felt like an afterthought. That's when I used to watch them. It was all about the east coast.

My thoughts exactly.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah....The Weatherbell winter forecast defies explanation.

Tweet from @joebastadi "west will continue dry and warm under influence of blob. East coast ice box starting in November."

[Bryant]

Tweet from @joebastadi "west will continue dry and warm under influence of blob. East coast ice box starting in November."

And to think he is a "professional" Meteorologist

[Farmboy]

Tweet from @joebastadi "west will continue dry and warm under influence of blob. East coast ice box starting in November."

Dry and warm?  Is he high?

[Phil]

Tweet from @joebastadi "west will continue dry and warm under influence of blob. East coast ice box starting in November."

Unbelievable.

[wx_statman]

Dry and warm?  Is he high?

 

Most east coast people equate the West with California. I'm willing to bet that's what he was talking about. Seattle and Portland aren't on their radar...

[TT-SEA]

Most east coast people equate the West with California. I'm willing to bet that's what he was talking about. Seattle and Portland aren't on their radar...

 

 

Bingo.

[snow_wizard]

And to think he is a "professional" Meteorologist

 

He's a bit behind the times with the blob.

[snow_wizard]

D**n nice first 6 days of October.  This will only look better after the next couple of days.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Unbelievable.

 

Almost no question Bastardi will go down in flames this time.  The North Pacific has shifted to what is almost a classic negative PDO now and he doesn't even see it.

[TT-SEA]

D**n nice first 6 days of October.  This will only look better after the next couple of days.

 

This is not to be mean to you at all... but its amazing that SEA, WFO SEA, OLM, and BLI are all running above normal looking at that map.

 

BLI is +3.2 through yesterday.

 

OLM is at +2.1 

[TT-SEA]

Almost no question Bastardi will go down in flames this time.  The North Pacific has shifted to what is almost a classic negative PDO now and he doesn't even see it.

 

 

If CA stays dry and warm in November then everyone will say he was accurate.    No flames.    He does not even care much about the PNW for it to matter regardless of what happens out here. 

[BLI snowman]

Rainier night than previously thought. It's wet.

[snow_wizard]

This is not to be mean to you at all... but its amazing that SEA, WFO SEA, OLM, and BLI are all running above normal looking at that map.

 

BLI is +3.2 through yesterday.

 

OLM is at +2.1 

 

Seems almost impossible.  I'd take my chances with 500mb anoms like that in the winter though.

[BLI snowman]

Seems almost impossible.  I'd take my chances with 500mb anoms like that in the winter though.

 

It's October. Nighttime clearing is critical now to maintaining cooler than average temps.

[TT-SEA]

It's October. Nighttime clearing is critical now to maintaining cooler than average temps.

 

 

Clearing for a couple nights coming up... but then its back to warm nights obviously with the rainy pattern ahead.   

[crf450ish]

D**n nice first 6 days of October.  This will only look better after the next couple of days.

Can we get this with a heavy dose of "real" cold in mid December please?

[BLI snowman]

Clearing for a couple nights coming up... but then its back to warm nights obviously with the rainy pattern ahead.   

 

If nothing else, the running average highs this month should easily be below average until further notice.

[wx_statman]

Off topic, but the interesting thing about Hurricane Matthew is that it produced 60 mph gusts at both JAX and SAV. Very rare for that stretch of coastline. It would be interesting to find out when was the last time either of those airports gusted to 60+ from a tropical system, and especially when the last time both did. 

[snow_wizard]

Off topic, but the interesting thing about Hurricane Matthew is that it produced 60 mph gusts at both JAX and SAV. Very rare for that stretch of coastline. It would be interesting to find out when was the last time either of those airports gusted to 60+ from a tropical system, and especially when the last time both did. 

 

That is really surprising it's rare there.

[snow_wizard]

It's October. Nighttime clearing is critical now to maintaining cooler than average temps.

 

Unless it's a really cold air mass.

[wx_statman]

That is really surprising it's rare there.

 

Its the way the coastline curves inland. That little stretch of GA coast hardly ever sees direct hurricane effects. I might be mistaken, but I think Hugo in '89 was the last time the Savannah area saw hurricane damage. 

[Phil]

Saint Simons didn't fare to well, unfortunately. It looks as if most of the ancient Live Oaks were taken out. Very depressing, but thank hid the surge hit during low tide.

 

http://www.ajc.com/weather/hurricanes/georgia-barrier-islands-closed-public-following-hurricane-matthew/lAs7v4g2z3ZmNnSgywdM0I/

[snow_wizard]

Still seeing huge ensemble spread later in the month.  The interesting thing is nearly every run has either the operational GFS or the control or both running solidly cool at that time.  As far as the 850s are concerned the mean hardly goes above the normal line for at least the next 10 days.

[BLI snowman]

Off topic, but the interesting thing about Hurricane Matthew is that it produced 60 mph gusts at both JAX and SAV. Very rare for that stretch of coastline. It would be interesting to find out when was the last time either of those airports gusted to 60+ from a tropical system, and especially when the last time both did. 

 

It took a very unusual track. Significant Georgia coastal impacts are pretty rare in general, due to the length and shape of their coastline.