October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

GFS looks a little stronger and a little farther SE with the remnants of Songda bombing out at 12Z Saturday.  Possibly shifting slightly towards the Euro track?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

I noticed a few things with this run. As post-tropical Songda travels east across the Pacific it's a bit further south as it crosses 160 W, then 140 W. At hr 96 it's 200 miles further southeast than 12z. Trending towards the more dangerous ECMWF? I think it might be.

[wx_statman]

Gotcha, thanks for the explanation! Once again I'm sick and twisted but I would sure love to experience something as powerful as that storm in my lifetime!

 

Ditto. When you talk to old timers around here and the subject of weather comes up, the Columbus Day storm is the one thing they all remember. 

 

88 mph sustained winds (as recorded @ PDX before the equipment was damaged) will make some memories....

[stuffradio]

OK - well the NAM takes my idea and throws it out the window.

 

That looks worse for me than you guys down there.

[TT-SEA]

Much warmer tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Much warmer tonight.

 

44 here, was 40 this time last night

[stuffradio]

It's about the same for me tonight as it was last night.

[Deweydog]

Pretty cold here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am 46 tonight last night I was 41 at this time.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Much cooler here. I'm at 40, last night I was 49 at this time.

[stuffradio]

Cliff mass on the hype train.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/warming-major-storms-threaten-pacific.html

[Deweydog]

Alan Thicke has Saturday's storm down in the low 950's.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cliff mass on the hype train.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/warming-major-storms-threaten-pacific.html

 

I think he wet his pants writing that. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a major -PNA to finish out the month on the 0z GFS.  That SE ridge late in the run is insane.  I think we will either see a chilly GOA ridge  / Western trough pattern or an Arctic outbreak late in the month.

 

The storm being depicted on the models this weekend is incredible.  Not sure I've ever seen a low that strong so close to the WA coast before.  Interesting that the all important fine details indicate relatively minor winds over land while the winds offshore are near hurricane force.

 

The overall behavior we are seeing this month and the continually reappearing GOA ridge have me close to saying this will be the winter of the century so far.  The boxes are all being checked for something great!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Alan Thicke has Saturday's storm down in the low 950's.

 

 

AND he has great recommendation on a reverse mortgage and negotiating tax debt with the IRS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a major -PNA to finish out the month on the 0z GFS.  That SE ridge late in the run is insane.  I think we will either see a chilly GOA ridge  / Western trough pattern or an Arctic outbreak late in the month.

 

The storm being depicted on the models this weekend is incredible.  Not sure I've ever seen a low that strong so close to the WA coast before.  Interesting that the all important fine details indicate relatively minor winds over land while the winds offshore are near hurricane force.

 

The overall behavior we are seeing this month and the continually reappearing GOA ridge have me close to saying this will be the winter of the century so far.  The boxes are all being checked for something great!

 

Glad you are not going into this winter with high expectations.

[stuffradio]

A met who works for Environment Canada is going for a 2006 type storm that hit here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Glad you are not going into this winter with high expectations.

Lol!! I can see the emotional crash may bigger than any storm we will ever see... Gonna be a doozy.

[snow_wizard]

Glad you are not going into this winter with high expectations.

 

I've been waiting for a year where everything falls into place as perfectly as what we have seen the past few months.  There are major reasons to believe this will be a jaw dropper.  I've been telling Jesse for a while I'm probably going to predict top 3 since 1968-69 this time around.  Way above average shot at a top tier winter.

[snow_wizard]

Lol!! I can see the emotional crash may bigger than any storm we will ever see... Gonna be a doozy.

 

Not likely to happen.  This one is falling into place.

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully we steer clear of the 62-63 analogue.

[snow_wizard]

Hopefully we steer clear of the 62-63 analogue.

 

Jan 1963 was quite cold and reasonably snowy.

[Deweydog]

Not likely to happen. This one is falling into place.

Weren't you just melting down a few days ago?

 

You may want to pace yourself. Just some friendly advice.

[ShawniganLake]

Jan 1963 was quite cold and reasonably snowy.

Yea. It was chilly. Crap year for snow up this way though.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF quite alarming. A few major differences compared to 12z and 00z last night. The wave(post tropical Songda) around 147 W, 40 N develops just a touch slower than previous runs, so it is allowed to push further east in relation to 140-130 W before it turns northeast. Result is a more classic, deeper southerly/southwesterly trajectory. The pressure rises on tonight's run look unreal. Wind gust model gives PDX metro widespread 65-80mph gusts. 2 to 2 1/2 days for models to resolve things. Will we no longer dodge that bullet of being long overdue for a major regional wind storm? Maybe.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016101200/ecmwf_T850_nwus_5.png

[snow_wizard]

As amazing as the storm this weekend looks the context doesn't look favorable for extreme wind for most locations for the following reasons.

 

1. The storm is set in a huge field of abnormally low pressure

2. Trajectory makes this much more favorable to be a west wind producer instead of S or SW.

3. The track never brings it near enough to highly populated areas to be of high impact

 

Still a beast though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG

 

[snow_wizard]

Weren't you just melting down a few days ago?

 

You may want to pace yourself. Just some friendly advice.

 

Overall I've been close to pulling the trigger on calling for a great one for quite a while now.  I was pissed when the models were showing us going into an unfavorable pattern which in the end never verified anyway.  October is one of the most crucial pieces of the puzzle and it's going perfectly.

[ShawniganLake]

I was just going to say. Looks like the euro did something silly.

[wx_statman]

Hopefully we steer clear of the 62-63 analogue.

 

That was one of the most anomalously blocky winters in N. Hem history. I'll take my chances with a repeat anytime....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thinking about getting a WeatherBell subscription. Any thoughts yay or nay?

[snow_wizard]

I was just going to say. Looks like the euro did something silly.

 

I'll have to see it to believe it.  Given the overall setup not impossible though.  It would be extremely unorthodox for a storm like that to track so far south with that trajectory.  The first storm in Jan 1880 managed it though.

[Gradient Keeper]

OMG

 

Yeah, as I was saying. that's NUTS!

 

If we see a similar solution by 00z Thursday, I'll need several dozens pairs of adult diapers and tranquilizers because I'll be pissing myself frequently and have uncontrollable excitement.

[snow_wizard]

Thinking about getting a WeatherBell subscription. Any thoughts yay or nay?

 

I just did it  a few days ago.  Some really neat stuff on there.  Given this is going to be a great season I would say yes.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, as I was saying. that's NUTS!

 

If we see a similar solution by 00z Thursday, I'll need several dozens pairs of adult diapers and tranquilizers because I'll be pissing myself frequently and have uncontrollable excitement.

 

I may have to resort to taking a klonopin myself.

[Jbolin]

Thinking about getting a WeatherBell subscription. Any thoughts yay or nay?

YES YES YES, I have one and it's the best money I've ever spent.

[ShawniganLake]

That was one of the most anomalously blocky winters in N. Hem history. I'll take my chances with a repeat anytime....

Interesting.  Guess I was focussing too much IMBY.  2" of snow here that winter.  We average 30".  2" would probably put it in the bottom 10 winters for snowfall here in the past century. 

[Gradient Keeper]

10/12/16 12:05 AM [Model Countdown]
Next up....
*6z NAM in 43 minutes
6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes
Later Wednesday morning....
12z NAM in 6 hours 41 minutes
12z GFS in 8 hours 25 minutes
12z GEM/CMC in 9 hours 40 minutes
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 44 minutes

[stuffradio]

Interesting.  Guess I was focussing too much IMBY.  2" of snow here that winter.  We average 30".  2" would probably put it in the bottom 10 winters for snowfall here in the past century. 

On the other hand, more than the last few years combined!

[BLI snowman]

OMG

 

 

Nice.

 

Euro is king so when it talks it's wise to listen.