October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jbolin]

I'll be honest, I want everyone to stay safe... but when it comes to wind storms in the fall I hope for the extreme. I hope this thing goes gangbusters. Relying on DJDROPPIN on by the minute updates

You're not going to like the Wxbell maps then

 

I have a subscription and looking through the run into Sunday morning, the low bombs out at 954mb about 350 miles offshore and shoots straight northeast to Haida Gwaii 

 

But like you I'm optimistic. However looking at the large scale pattern this week and with a pinwheeling ULL in the GOA I don't see Saturday's storm coming very close to the neighborhood. 

 

Breezy to moderately windy, Yes

 

Columbus Day Part Deux, No 

[westcoastexpat]

I apologize for that comment. It was out of line.

 

However, I (still) vehemently disagree with your take on frost development.

 

No, we don't disagree at all on frost development. That was the point. We were saying the same things but for whatever reason you kept nit picking....

[westcoastexpat]

Nice to see the 1962 analog popping up again. It wasn't in the 12z or 18z.... Yeah, this could be the real deal later this week. We are long overdue for a major regional wind storm and we just might not be able to dodge that bullet this time.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

*6z NAM in 33 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 15 minutes

12z NAM in 6 hours 33 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 15 minutes

12z GEM/CMC in 9 hours 30 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 35 minutes

 

Wasn't end of August 2015 pretty major?

[Jbolin]

Wasn't end of August 2015 pretty major?

On average wind gusts in the 55-65 mph range for that late summer wind event 

 

Furthermore most locals around western Washington would be in agreement that "major" wind events would constitute events like Columbus Day, Inauguration Day and Hanukkah Eve type events and not your typical sub 980mb storms. 

 

Once you start seeing cross gradients in the +18 - 20mb or higher then you can start the "major" discussion, at least in my opinion.

[westcoastexpat]

On average wind gusts in the 55-65 mph range for that late summer wind event 

 

Furthermore most locals around western Washington would be in agreement that "major" wind events would constitute events like Columbus Day, Inauguration Day and Hanukkah Eve type events and not your typical sub 980mb storms. 

 

Once you start seeing cross gradients in the +18 - 20mb or higher then you can start the "major" discussion, at least in my opinion.

 

I agree that the gusts from that event weren't jaw dropping, but they were still pretty impressive--especially given the time of year. But I think what ups it to "major" category for me is that it came after an incredibly dry summer... the trees were so sick they were starting to shed their foliage. The combination of very loose soil, weak trees and a heavy canopy lead to an incredible number of downed trees across metro Vancouver.... I was without power for 3 days, which was a record for me.

[westcoastexpat]

Vancouver, BC down to 35.8 F this morning... certainly well below forecasted low. Radiational cooling ftw

 

Always amazes me how Abbotsford can stay so much warmer than Vancouver during these Fraser outflow type set ups... but never underestimate frictional heat from the wind!

[Brennan]

42 right now in North Bellingham with a North wind 5-10. Sheltered areas definitely have frost. Low-mid 30's in various locations around the county.

[FroYoBro]

This stormy episode coming up is looking very interesting. Some areas might get hit hard. 

[LukeDaniel]

Niño-ish look continues on most long range guidance. Looks like 7/10 years here featured +ENSO:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

 

New Post from me User LukeDaniel Oct 11 2016

 

I am not a weather major from college, but I think the reason the hurricane stayed off of the coast of Florida is that clouds fronts and water vapor seems to have started to move into California and the usual Low Pressure on the North East Pacific ( West of North West United States, seems to be less organized, and there seems to be more of a straight line movement of weather systems that are not rotating as much, moving from west to east over the entire United States, and in so doing might have created pressures or winds that kept Hurricane Matthew from doing more damage off to the East coast of Florida, and maybe this means that Winter Systems are beginning to show their face across the United States slowly but surely.

 

Thankx User LukeDaniel

[TT-SEA]

41 here this morning... it was 42 when I went to bed so I was expecting lower (bottomed out at 40).   My wife is happy because the garden lives on!    

 

First morning when it feels like we should probably think about turning on the furnace... temp in the house down to 69 which is the first time below 70 since probably late April.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got down to 35 this morning. Some light frost. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

down to 30.3 just north of Lake Whatcom, with a light frost on the windshield.  My house is somewhat sheltered from the wind but when I got out of the car at work, there is still a chilly breeze out of the N-NE

[TT-SEA]

down to 30.3 just north of Lake Whatcom, with a light frost on the windshield. My house is somewhat sheltered from the wind but when I got out of the car at work, there is still a chilly breeze out of the N-NE

My parents live just north of Lake Whatcom... what area are you in?

[stuffradio]

I actually got frost this morning. Can't believe it's frosty so early in the year this year. I think the last couple years it was more like November when I got my first frost.

[ShawniganLake]

31.6F here this morning.  First freeze of the season.  A couple of the typical cold spots on Vancouver Island were down to 29F this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX even hit 42. 

[Geos]

Saw scattered frost on the roof tops this morning. Down to 36° here this morning. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the Victoria area rain woes are finally over. That 1"+ of rain Saturday morning thoroughly soaked the ground. The Thursday storm will probably ensure the ground doesn't fully dry out again for another 8 months. This certainly isn't the place to be for frost; the lows last night only dropped to around 45~46F in Victoria proper. However, it is the place to be for windstorms. If these storms pack more damage than the last one it's going to be a mess come Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am up to 4.32" of rain on the month. 

[ShawniganLake]

The 12Z NAM continues to bring a 970mb low across the Olympic peninsula on Thursday night.  Big wind for the Puget sound.  Yea, I know, its just the Nam.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Such an active pattern coming up. 

[TT-SEA]

Such an active pattern coming up. 

 

Tropical infusion.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tropical infusion.   

 

So tasty, especially in strong drinks!

[epiceast]

Had a few flurries this morning. Most other major towns in Montana got a few inches out of this storm.

[stuffradio]

So tasty, especially in strong drinks!

One could say, it's pineappley!

[Guest Winterdog]

Had a low of 31.2 this morning. Great start to a beautiful autumn day.

[Chewbacca Defense]

My parents live just north of Lake Whatcom... what area are you in?

 

Just off Britton between Tweed Twenty and Mt. Baker highway. I used to live off McLeod but moved about 3 years ago.  What area are your parents in?

[Bryant]

Just off Britton between Tweed Twenty and Mt. Baker highway. I used to live off McLeod but moved about 3 years ago. What area are your parents in?

Grew up on the corner house of Roma and Mcgrath was there most of my childhood through high school. Loved the area for snow fall

[TT-SEA]

Just off Britton between Tweed Twenty and Mt. Baker highway. I used to live off McLeod but moved about 3 years ago.  What area are your parents in?

 

 

Near Gala Loop.

[stuffradio]

Here's a tweet from RyanMaue with a look at the Typhoon.

 

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/785896116357169152

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has a 960ish low crashing into central Vancouver Island on Saturday evening.    Might be an interesting day up there.  

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF has a 960ish low crashing into central Vancouver Island on Saturday evening.    Might be an interesting day up there.  

 

North from the 00z, in better agreement with the other models again.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF has a 960ish low crashing into central Vancouver Island on Saturday evening. Might be an interesting day up there.

Still pretty dangerous looking for up here, if it actually makes landfall and doesn't just spin off the coast as it weekens. A 960 into central Vancouver island would knock down a lot of trees across the south and east Island.

[MossMan]

Still pretty dangerous looking for up here, if it actually makes landfall and doesn't just spin off the coast as it weekens. A 960 into central Vancouver island would knock down a lot of trees across the south and east Island.

The sick and twisted side of me still hopes for a last nights Euro solution...I do love the windstorms!

[Phil]

No, we don't disagree at all on frost development. That was the point. We were saying the same things but for whatever reason you kept nit picking....

You said you disagreed with me, sir.

 

If you think the dewpoint needs to drop below 32F for frost formation, we disagree. If you think frost and frozen dew are the same thing, we disagree.

 

Nothing wrong with that.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also quiets the pattern down effectively later next week.

 

Looks like a wild 6-day period though.  

[TT-SEA]

Still pretty dangerous looking for up here, if it actually makes landfall and doesn't just spin off the coast as it weekens. A 960 into central Vancouver island would knock down a lot of trees across the south and east Island.

 

 

Ironically... the path shown on Saturday usually results in perfectly calm conditions here even though it would be breezy in Seattle.     For strong wind here... we usually need the low to track inland around Bellingham or just north of the border.

[TT-SEA]

The sick and twisted side of me still hopes for a last nights Euro solution...I do love the windstorms!

 

 

We actually disagree on something!   

 

I don't like windstorms at all.

 

The only wind I really like is a good east wind in the winter.