November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

La la land GFS is starting to look interesting

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112900/312/500h_anom.na.png

[FroYoBro]

Doesn't look as good as GFS...slower with cold air.

Canadian shows no real cold air making it south. 850mb temps are very unimpressive. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Once again definitely 00z GFS and GEM were very different after day 6....

 

EURO in 49 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian shows no real cold air making it south. 850mb temps are very unimpressive. 

That's what I expected based on 500mb evolution after day 6-7.

[Heavy Snow]

If one member logs on we will have a new record for number of members logged on in one day.

 

The anticipation is building!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Canadian is actually better than the 12z Canadian though...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our prayers have been answered...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_49.png

[Deweydog]

Too many warning shots and not enough kill shots!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1861-62 redux?

[Bryant]

Great so now I get screwed and Seattle gets all the snow again

Lol dude it's one run. Further north is always favored, I'd be happy to be where you're at. Plus, mods don't get to throw tantrums

 

Edit: GEM snowfall map attached. Cheer up

[snow_wizard]

1861-62 redux?

 

I like the way this is unfolding, but that might be going a bit far.

 

I would gladly settle for an 1865-66 type winter.

[Deweydog]

So now what?????

[stuffradio]

Lol dude it's one run. Further north is always favored, I'd be happy to be where you're at. Plus, mods don't get to throw tantrums

 

Edit: GEM snowfall map attached. Cheer up

It's my party and I can tantrum if I want to

[Bryant]

So now what?????

We watch the Euro screw everyone

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS looks very improved 500mb cold anomaly digs more southward over WA/OR instead of 18z, 12z which it moved it off to the southeast quickly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So now what?????

Smoke a cigarette... relax.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS surface and temp anomalies MUCH colder over WA/OR compared to 18z, 12z. Expect 850mb Ensembles to improve nicely.

[Timmy]

Lol dude it's one run. Further north is always favored, I'd be happy to be where you're at. Plus, mods don't get to throw tantrums

Edit: GEM snowfall map attached. Cheer up

Actually is the best snowfall for my location. Although I think if this plays out as modeled I would end up with more than just 4" of snow

[Gradient Keeper]

Coldest day on 00z GEFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112900/gfs-ens_T2m_wus_31.png

[Gradient Keeper]

We SHOULD see appreciable improvements on the 850mb Ensembles which comes out in around 8 minutes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We SHOULD see appreciable improvements on the 850mb Ensembles which comes out in around 8 minutes.

 

OMG I can't ******* wait!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Begins in.... 5 minutes

 

Hoping we see improvements from the 12z run. A less progressive pattern. Stronger ridge. Anything similar to the 00z would be great.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112612&fh=24

[seattleweatherguy]

Will try to look at models!

[Bryant]

OMG I can't ******* wait!!!!

Sarcasm doesn't work for you

[Heavy Snow]

I just looked at the updated run of the MeteoStar 00z GFS data and its cold.

 

YVR:525mb and lower thickness from hr 129 to 192 peaking at 516mb and -10C 850mb.

 

SEA:524mb and lower thickness from hr 135 to 192 peaking at 518mb and -9C 850mb.

 

TTD:525mb and lower thickness from hr 138 to 192 peaking at 519mb and -8C 850mb.

 

It should be cold enough for snow down to sea level especially if there's lots of moisture.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent ensemble improvement. The operational is pretty much in line with the mean through the 9th. 

[Bryant]

We SHOULD see appreciable improvements on the 850mb Ensembles which comes out in around 8 minutes.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sarcasm doesn't work for you

 

I was being serious. 

[bainbridgekid]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Nice to see every single member drop to at least -6 by day 7.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 6-10 / 8-14 day Composite analogs show a real potential for a long duration cold spell

[Bryant]

Nice to see every single member drop to at least -6.

Agreed. Timing and amount of cold shown on the 00z GFS is supported by the ensembles.

[Bryant]

00z GFS 6-10 / 8-14 day Composite analogs show a real potential for a long duration cold spell

Post em up! I personally enjoy them

[snow_wizard]

 

The valley is getting wider and deeper.  I like how the control goes to -12.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then there is this!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAVGEM! 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016112900/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_28.png

[snow_wizard]

Then there is this!

 

 

Weird that 1983 would be there.  I had a freeze in September that year.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Composite Analogs

Day 6-10, 8-14 - Perhaps not idea, but it looks like the potential is there for a long cold wave to me. Definitely some cold/snowy years showing up. Correlation score needs some improvement. Improved from the past few runs.

 

Day 6-10

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

Day 8-14

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Weird that 1983 would be there. I had a freeze in September that year.

Man that was awhile ago. I was born in 85

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weird that 1983 would be there.  I had a freeze in September that year.

 

PDX all time September low is 34...So..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Man that was awhile ago. I was born in 85

 

85 was the last time PDX had an all time record cold month! 

 

They have had 7 record warm months in the past 2 1/2 years!