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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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There's a piece in southern Canada which suppresses thing a bit too much, but def. a nice trend. Delayed the energy just a little bit and allowed for more separation.

Key will be how much seperation between the 2 HP's...one in the SE and the other coming down out of Canada.  I like how the storm doesn't weaken as much tracking east.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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We finally end up getting real blocking near the Dakotas this run and place a Banana HP to our north...haven't seen that literally all season long.  Always end up getting some sort of weakness in the north and allows the system to cut.  This go around, blocking play, just need this storm to get juicier!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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By 00z Sat HP entrenched near the Dakotas/Upper Midwest which help seed the cold and keep it bowling east instead of cutting bc that SE HP would no doubt push this storm towards the western lakes.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_21.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The storm behind the Fri storm is doing what the pattern has been all season long with weakness in the Upper Midwest instead of having a strong storm bundle all its energy but instead has it spread north/south.

 

Why can't we get these storms to wind up where the energy is the strongest???  That would be a nice 994mb storm in C KS but instead it ends up being an open wave.  Who knows, maybe future runs dictate otherwise.  Still shows some snow.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_34.png

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Money Proficient

Money

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The storm behind the Fri storm is doing what the pattern has been all season long with weakness in the Upper Midwest instead of having a strong storm bundle all its energy but instead has it spread north/south.

 

Why can't we get these storms to wind up where the energy is the strongest???  That would be a nice 994mb storm in C KS but instead it ends up being an open wave.  Who knows, maybe future runs dictate otherwise.  Still shows some snow.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_34.png

 

 

GEM does this and has a strong low in Colorado but blocking isn't quite there and cuts it up to Chicago and hits MN/WI hard. 

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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-40F in the Dakotas this run in the extended...wonder if the -AO is going to make an impact going forward. Very cold/active run on the GFS. Hope this is a trend and not a "head fake".

Ya this week had ridic cold showing up not gonna pan out... As is modeled it only lasts a day anyhow

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Ya this week had ridic cold showing up not gonna pan out...

Without the snow hard to do and the Dakotas still end up getting down into the double digits sub zero.  However, I know what you mean, it's really really difficult to get it down that cold anyhow.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Totally get that but modeling has been overblowing long range cold and blocking. Hard to ignore

One thing we need is for a stronger Greenland Block to pop to supress the storms from cutting towards the U.S./Canadian border.  GEFS have been trending better in the medium/longer ranger.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Tremendous thermal differences between the GFS and EURO in the extended-- Tues the 10th at 18Z Euro says 50+ in the Central Plains  while the GFS has sub freezing for most of the same area.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Money Proficient

Money

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12z GFS still showing a central/southern Plains snow storm Fri/Sat period.  Too much blocking suppresses it south this run and keeps the storm tracking near TX region.

 

All about when it ejects. NAM much slower and way north.

 

Where does OKWx live? Eastern OK and KS gets nailed this run.

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