Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[St Paul Storm]

GFS throws the Dakotas and N MN another gift. Just awesome.

[Tom]

Tom you are supposed to bring us hope. Ha. I guess it is just one of those years. Can hope for something later on, but those don't tend to keep a snow cover for any great length.

It's the season that keeps on giving for them up north.  I'm hopeful the pattern gets blocked up next month and gets more exciting for us.

[CentralNebWeather]

Honest question as I want to keep learning about weather. With this extreme cold approaching, why wouldn't this storm be suppressed further south? In the past I always hoped a strong high wouldn't push things too far south of me.

[CentralNebWeather]

Ramifications of flooding down the road in the Missouri River system if this pattern continues.

[Tom]

Honest question as I want to keep learning about weather. With this extreme cold approaching, why wouldn't this storm be suppressed further south? In the past I always hoped a strong high wouldn't push things too far south of me.

The teleconnections are really not that favorable for a storm to dig into the west and eject out into the southern Plains.  Need a -AO for that and currently its minimally positive and heading negative Post-storm.  We do have a strongly -EPO evolving but that necessarily doesn't brew a good storm system for us.

[gosaints]

Honest question as I want to keep learning about weather. With this extreme cold approaching, why wouldn't this storm be suppressed further south? In the past I always hoped a strong high wouldn't push things too far south of me.

whats coming doesnt so make a difference to whats in place at the time of the storm. Any blocking in the long range has been an illusion. Until it changes any wound up storm will have no problem cutting...

[Tom]

Ramifications of flooding down the road in the Missouri River system if this pattern continues.

Definitely going to be a problem I think later in March and early April. I think the cold sticks around into Spring this year up there.

 

FWIW, 12z GFS opens the door now for a storm mid week next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

The teleconnections are really not that favorable for a storm to dig into the west and eject out into the southern Plains. Need a -AO for that and currently its minimally positive and heading negative Post-storm. We do have a strongly -EPO evolving but that necessarily doesn't brew a good storm system for us.

Thanks Tom. I guess we wait for the next one to track.

[CentralNebWeather]

whats coming doesnt so make a difference to whats in place at the time of the storm. Any blocking in the long range has been an illusion. Until it changes any wound up storm will have no problem cutting...

Thanks gosaints. Appreciate the information.

[Tom]

Ya, 12z GFS now showing potential for another cutter mid next week.  First run we have seen and something Gary Lezak mentioned would make sense according to the LRC.

 

 

[Money]

Just to show you how bad the GFS was for this storm:

 

0z last night:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123000/120/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

12z today:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123012/108/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

[Tom]

Maybe not necessarily a cutter but a west/east storm track would suffice.  Better riding showing up along the EC now which supports the teleconnections during this time frame.

[Grizzcoat]

If this trend continues like it did the winter of 96-97',, the Red River of North will likely flood much quicker then the Mighty Missouri. Small lakes are still around in the areas that flooded the worse in Spring of 97'.

[gabel23]

Just to show you how bad the GFS was for this storm:

 

0z last night:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123000/120/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

12z today:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123012/108/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

For those of you who follow Gary Lezak, he has an awesome video post on how bad the models are just 72 hours out. He showed the 10 day forecast, then came back and showed the same forecast 72 hours out and it was so completely wrong with the upper air pattern by about 500 miles! Pretty remarkable with how bad the models are, now with that being said it's just like Tom said......we need the teleconnections to play ball and we are all in business. Otherwise North Dakota might never seen the ground until may!!

[CentralNebWeather]

00z had storm from New Mexico, Oklahoma, and north Texas. 12z run nothing.

[Money]

GGEM gives ND/SD less than 3-4 inches of snow while GFS is 14-16.

 

GGEM for the mid-week storm gives central IL/IN/OH/N. OK/S. KS about 2-4/3-5 

[CentralNebWeather]

For those of you who follow Gary Lezak, he has an awesome video post on how bad the models are just 72 hours out. He showed the 10 day forecast, then came back and showed the same forecast 72 hours out and it was so completely wrong with the upper air pattern by about 500 miles! Pretty remarkable with how bad the models are, now with that being said it's just like Tom said......we need the teleconnections to play ball and we are all in business. Otherwise North Dakota might never seen the ground until may!!

Good points. Might be several more days until things are resolved.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z gfs for what it's worth.

[jaster220]

Well, what do ya know...Dakotas with another major snow storm???

 

Man, that'd be like the most majors in a row for one region since Mid-Atl to SNE run back in 09-10. As said though, see 96-97 for Dakotas = ground zero winter.

[jaster220]

12z gfs for what it's worth.IMG_0855.GIF

 

GFS trying to Grinch Okwx out of his storm - he not gonna be happy if that happens   Would shift the luv to that dude in KS though, who also needs something.

[SE Wisconsin]

I also watched Gary Lezak this morning.  A graphic demonstration in his video on how horrible modelling is in the long range.  He also states that according to the LRC the pattern should be flatter and not nearly as cold as some of the models are depicting.  Personally, I have a hard time believing that snow "doughnut hole" over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest in the long range.     

[jaster220]

I also watched Gary Lezak this morning.  A graphic demonstration in his video on how horrible modelling is in the long range.  He also states that according to the LRC the pattern should be flatter and not nearly as cold as some of the models are depicting.  Personally, I have a hard time believing that snow "doughnut hole" over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest in the long range.     

 

From a poster in MO. Keeping hope alive next week further north..just maybe. GGEM gets a better feel for the strength of HP's dropping in from Canada, while the GFS does better with the SLP strength. Keeping that in mind, if the GFS is showing suppression, might want to weigh it against the what the GGEM is showing for HP's to the north..

 

 

[Tom]

Looks like 12z Euro came in a little colder for MN/N MN...

[Tom]

I might as well start a thread for this storm system.....keep things compartmentalized...

[OKwx2k4]

No panic yet. Ensembles are still great. Still a major moving piece on the board to get clear of as well.

[Tom]

12z Euro has a strong low in the 4 corners 4th/5th of Jan...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123012/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123012/ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

[jaster220]

 

12z Euro has a strong low in the 4 corners 4th/5th of Jan...

 

There comes our share the wealth "hooker"...12z GFS has a nice LES signal on south end of the lake at 162. Beginning of fun tracking times me hopes!

 

 

[Money]

Too much blocking in place on the EURO which suppresses it way too far south.

[Money]

KY/TN and the east coast gets nailed (10-14) 

 

General 1-3 for Texas/OK/AR/MO/S. IL/OH

[Tom]

All of a sudden, tracking systems became more interesting...

[OKwx2k4]

Too much blocking in place on the EURO which suppresses it way too far south.

I guess I'm the only one who liked the Euro.

[Money]

I guess I'm the only one who liked the Euro.

 

Not even that good for you either tbh. Much less than previous runs 

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO show something big targeting the west/Rockies Day 9-10.  Blocking should be established with a jet cutting underneath.  Hope this will deliver, given the 500mb pattern being advertised on both the GEFS/EPS ensembles I'd be shocked for it not to.

[Money]

All of a sudden, tracking systems became more interesting...

 

It's got a strong system to start (HR 144) but there's way too much strong blocking in front of it which causes it to head south. Need less blocking and it has a chance. 

[jaster220]

..and while the BSR map would indicate the southern "slider" is in play for the 2nd system (4-6th), it's been noted that the correlated storms have been verifying to the NW so far this season. Thus, that 996mb low, shown running towards MD, might well verify going up the Ohio River. We'll have to wait and see ofc. Just .02 worth.

 

 

[Tom]

It's got a strong system to start (HR 144) but there's way too much strong blocking in front of it which causes it to head south. Need less blocking and it has a chance. 

Could very well trend that way but we shall see.  Euro tends to over play the -EPO in the longer range and given the strength of the southern ridge this season, anything is possible or even a weak sheared out wave.

[OKwx2k4]

Not even that good for you either tbh. Much less than previous runs

I never assumed it was going to be more than 2.5-4 inches anyway. Hard to be disappointed at this point.

[Money]

Could very well trend that way but we shall see.  Euro tends to over play the -EPO in the longer range and given the strength of the southern ridge this season, anything is possible or even a weak sheared out wave.

 

 

We've seen how bad models have been this year even inside 96-120 hours. Plenty of time for things to change, but we are going to need that blocking to relax big time before we even have a shot. 

[hlcater]

LOL that screw hole over Iowa and N Illinois. Can't make this stuff up, it would really be a shame if something like that verified due that high pressure as modeled on the models. 

[jaster220]

LOL that screw hole over Iowa and N Illinois. Can't make this stuff up, it would really be a shame if something like that verified due that high pressure as modeled on the models. 

 

Watch the GGEM for a better take on HP strength(s). As Tom said, at this range Euro tendency is to over-play, GFS tendency is to be clueless.

 

Edit: at least for the minute, GFS and GGEM seeing things remarkably similar wrt snow swath late next week:

 

GFS:

 

 

 

GEM: