seattleweatherguy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00Z ECMWF certainly shows less snow than the WRF tomorrow. Its does not show that heavy snow in north King County either. Generally 1-2 inches away from the water... barely a dusting in Seattle. Total snow through Tuesday morning... Hmmm at least I get an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Wow, KING EURO has the over-running system more South than previous runs. Moisture doesn't reach PDX Metro until Thursday around 10am. This could potentially keep the cold pool thicker with the East winds having a longer duration to blow in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Good thing the radars are fixed now, eh? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looking at hindcast-corrected values for the 00z GFS Op there's a pretty nice arctic front Day 9-10 (high/low at PDX):Mon Dec 12: 44/35Tue Dec 13: 35/6Wed Dec 14: 20/12Thu Dec 15: 26/15Fri Dec 16: 35/15Sat Dec 17: 25/16 (reload)Sun Dec 18: 18/6Mon Dec 19: 15/5 (would be coldest since Feb 1989) 2 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Yup, KING EURO showing solid 2"-4" snow for PDX Metro through Thursday at 10pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 10 a.m. Thursday on the 00Z ECMWF.... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Definitely a stronger system than the GFS is showing.The notorious model battle of the northern stream v.s. the southern stream has begun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Rigjt now conversion zone over everett? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00Z ECMWF certainly shows less snow than the WRF tomorrow. Its does not show that heavy snow in north King County either. Generally 1-2 inches away from the water... barely a dusting in Seattle. Total snow through Tuesday morning... Wouldn't you think WRF would handle this situation better? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 5 ... Look upstream.... block anyone? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120500/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Wouldn't you think WRF would handle this situation better?WRF almost always loses when it disagrees with the ECMWF. I watch this all year long. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Rigjt now conversion zone over everett? Yeah, reporting snow and 34. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 WRF almost always loses when it disagrees with the ECMWF. I watch this all year long. Yeah, but these snow forecasts are so hard for all of the models to get right. The bottom line is that over the next 30 hours or so, it will be cold enough to snow most of the time for most of the lowlands, and there will be precip around. And convergence zones. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Yeah, but these snow forecasts are so hard for all of the models to get right. The bottom line is that over the next 30 hours or so, it will be cold enough to snow most of the time for most of the lowlands, and there will be precip around. And convergence zones. Yes... and the ECMWF shows that as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Yeah, but these snow forecasts are so hard for all of the models to get right. The bottom line is that over the next 30 hours or so, it will be cold enough to snow most of the time for most of the lowlands, and there will be precip around. And convergence zones.Accept for the swamp of course Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 WRF almost always loses when it disagrees with the ECMWF. I watch this all year long.WRF this evening was a bummer for whatcom county and my area, especially compared to the run this morning. Euro is a bit better, but would disappoint a lot of people. I have no idea what to expect around my area honestly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Have to love where the euro is headed at day 6... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 WRF this evening was a bummer for whatcom county and my area, especially compared to the run this morning. Euro is a bit better, but would disappoint a lot of people. I have no idea what to expect around my area honestly I am almost certain you will have snow on the ground by this time tomorrow. My guess is 2-3 inches. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z GFS Composite AnalogDay 6-10, 8-14 Quite simply the best pattern and analogs I've ever seen. Just look at the years popping up. One year after another is flat out epic. Look how the block holds in the sweet spot. Done deal. Day 6-10 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif Day 8-14 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks like our friend Timmy is about to get a very healthy snow shower. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Accept for the swamp of course Our only hope is a convergence zone. Not very likely in this situation though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 6 .... Uhhhh.... Heck of a block! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120500/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Everett Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Have to love where the euro is headed at day 6... It actually looks like a compromise between the GFS and GEM. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I am almost certain you will have snow on the ground by this time tomorrow. My guess is 2-3 inches.I'll let you know, hope you're right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks like our friend Timmy is about to get a very healthy snow shower. Don't forget about me!!! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 6 .... Uhhhh.... Heck of a block! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120500/144/500h_anom.na.png Yeah, the next couple frames is going to be crucial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It actually looks like a compromise between the GFS and GEM. Much better looking than the 12z run though. Edit: Definitely trends away from the GEM at day 7 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 7 . Amazing agreement with the GFS.. MEga block, PV pivoting SW http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120500/168/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Didn't you guys do pretty well the last few years though Ha. I just realized you weren't talking about the Oregon ducks. Yes, we've done well until recently. March 2012, Dec 2013, and Feb 2014 were all incredibly special. That being said, I haven't seen a single flake since Feb 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks like our friend Timmy is about to get a very healthy snow shower.We will see, doesn't look that great to me... I took some sleep medicine too, because I know how this night plays out. Lots of trips to the window. I can't afford that now with a newborn in the house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 5 ... Look upstream.... block anyone?Yeah I like the pattern a lot in the long range. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 7 . Amazing agreement with the GFS.. MEga block, PV pivoting SW http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120500/168/500h_anom.na.png Stunning..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Everett Nice! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 7 . Amazing agreement with the GFS.. MEga block, PV pivoting SW It's more similar to the GFS than the 12z, but the block is quite a bit different. The main block is way further west, there isn't that huge negative tilted ridge in AK pushing the PV down and west. I could be wrong, but I think the main cold (of which there is a ton and it's ridiculous) will go further east this run. Or just stall more to the north. Obviously, either way there's huge potential with this pattern. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Actually that band is increasing in intensity, I thought it was going to do the opposite. Dumping on 26 west of vernonia. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Only 780' elevation too. http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/US26%20at%20Timber%20Jct_pid2736.JPG?rand=1480920219419 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Actually that band is increasing in intensity, I thought it was going to do the opposite. Dumping on 26 west of vernonia. That band will be hitting most of the metro over the next hour or so assuming it doesn't fall apart. #momentoftruth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Day 8 awwww.... Block just not close enough and lifted too far north into Aleutians, Siberia http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120500/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I could be wrong, but I think the main cold (of which there is a ton and it's ridiculous) will go further east this run. Or just stall more to the north. Obviously, either way there's huge potential with this pattern.Bingo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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