December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

It's there, but not looking as good as earlier runs.

So less than 50 percent

[snow_wizard]

Big picture is still good IMO.

[Dave]

Wow the 0z GFS and GEM must have really sucked with nobody talking about it except a single sad face.

I'll add a sad face.  There does appear to be some chance of a few snowflakes in the air both for Seattle and PDX, which is worth a lot more when it falls on Christmas.

[Deweydog]

The Euro has handled the cutoff low completely differently. The GFS has overblown that feature many times this season.

This season? I don't recall any strong cutoff GOA lows being advertised. It's either been strong +EPO stuff or GOA ridging.

 

It's probably full of , but one thing the GFS generally does NOT do is bias toward wildly cutoff stuff in the long range.

[Goducks09]

It's the first official day of winter, so the obvious answer is: WINTER CANCEL!

 

On a positive note, today was a pretty nice way to kick off the season in PDX.  Started off foggy, cold...then the sun broke out mid morning and it ended up being a clear and very cold day.  Aside from not having a foot of snow on the ground, it's hard to imagine a better December 21st!

[snow_wizard]

At lest the end of the GFS looks good.  Amazing how horrible the GFS has looked at the same time the ECMWF has looked so good.  At least the right model is the one looking good.

[snow_wizard]

This season? I don't recall any strong cutoff GOA lows being advertised. It's either been strong +EPO stuff or GOA ridging.

 

It's probably full of s**t, but one thing the GFS generally does NOT do is bias toward wildly cutoff stuff in the long range.

 

There have been a few times it has put too much emphasis on southern stream cutoff lows in the longer range.   I wish I had saved the runs that showed that and then ended up being wrong.

[Deweydog]

There have been a few times it has put too much emphasis on southern stream cutoff lows in the longer range. I wish I had saved the runs that showed that and then ended up being wrong.

At any rate, it'd be nice to get whatever +PNA Tom Foolery the system needs to get out of its system ASAP.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to say no cigar on seeing much snow Friday through Saturday, but cold around New Years is a go IMO.

[snow_wizard]

Still thinking places above 300-500ft have a good chance; might be a case where the EPSL do the best.

 

I mean, Seattle has a white Christmas once every 13 years on average. Crazy stupid statistic. It's nice to even have the chance, especially considering the couple weeks of cold that we've had. I figured we'd be torching by now.

 

It is amazing how bad of luck we have getting snow on that date.  New Years does a lot better historically speaking.

 

Still a chance we could see an unexpectedly long lasting C-Zone.  Too bad the earlier GFS runs were apparently bogus.  A few runs clearly reeked of snow for this area.

[Deweydog]

I'm going to say no cigar on seeing much snow Friday through Saturday, but cold around New Years is a go IMO.

Bumping up your 60% odds?

[snow_wizard]

I am surprised to see the NWS going for snow likely Friday night for this area.  There are some favorable aspects to the scenario being modeled, but I'm less than convinced.

[Bryant]

Runs as recent as 36 hours ago showed a very real snow threat for Seattle. Some of the favorable details have changed though.

The models did tease a bit, but the overall pattern is just too progressive. Without the EPO block, we don't have a cold source like we did previously with the similar pattern. The snow will have to wait, but hopefully it will be worth it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the CFS tonight is a +PNA show for January. Basically the kind of crap you would expect from any January in the last 20 years. 

 

As for a New Year's cold snap, color me skeptical right now, there is really no sign of it showing up in the CFS or any of the GFS ensembles...The EURO is pretty much out on an island on this one, and it really hasn't shown much...Just some faint carrots. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow the CFS tonight is a +PNA s**t show for January. Basically the kind of crap you would expect from any January in the last 20 years. 

 

As for a New Year's cold snap, color me skeptical right now, there is really no sign of it showing up in the CFS or any of the GFS ensembles...The EURO is pretty much out on an island on this one, and it really hasn't shown much...Just some faint carrots. 

 

 

Going to be some serious hissy fits if we have peaked for the winter.    

[crf450ish]

Complex pattern? Hmm...

[Deweydog]

If the CFS doesn't have a handle on the next six weeks...

[liquidsnow]

#warningshot

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be some serious hissy fits if we have peaked for the winter.    

 

I'm sure we can rebound for some wet flakes in March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just remember once we hit New Year's we have about a 6 week window left for legit winter weather in the lowlands... It fades fast!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we base the odds of a top shelf January on the past 35 Januaries we come up with a statistical probability of 0. 

[Deweydog]

Chilly, silly night!

 

27 here!

[crf450ish]

Just remember once we hit New Year's we have about a 6 week window left for legit winter weather in the lowlands... It fades fast!

Be that as it may this season, I am 99.9% positive that window will grow in the coming years. 

 

 

#grandsolarminimum

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we base the odds of a top shelf January on the past 35 Januaries we come up with a statistical probability of 0. 

 

 

So the question then becomes, are we putting our hopes in something that is not just statistically unlikely, but statistically IMPOSSIBLE?! Or is impossible nothing?! We'll know in about a month!

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure we can rebound for some wet flakes in March.

 

For sure.... April too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DRAMATIC ensemble improvement!

[Bryant]

Wow the CFS tonight is a +PNA s**t show for January. Basically the kind of crap you would expect from any January in the last 20 years.

 

As for a New Year's cold snap, color me skeptical right now, there is really no sign of it showing up in the CFS or any of the GFS ensembles...The EURO is pretty much out on an island on this one, and it really hasn't shown much...Just some faint carrots.

The New Years cold snap that is being discussed may be showing up too early, but I think January will flex its muscles evetually.

 

Your use of the CFS is hilarious. You actually think it's worth a damn ?

 

http://i.imgur.com/mYBy0w7l.jpg

[Kayla]

So the question then becomes, are we putting our hopes in something that is not just statistically unlikely, but statistically IMPOSSIBLE?! Or is impossible nothing?! We'll know in about a month!

 

Been drinking a little too much of that cool-aid tonight eh??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been drinking a little too much of that cool-aid tonight 

 

Lol...no. 

[Deweydog]

So the question then becomes, are we putting our hopes in something that is not just statistically unlikely, but statistically IMPOSSIBLE?! Or is impossible nothing?! We'll know in about a month!

[Deweydog]

The savior is running!

 

Prince of peace, born of a virgin.

[crf450ish]

Dude, wtf?     

[Bryant]

What a movie

[snow_wizard]

Wow the CFS tonight is a +PNA s**t show for January. Basically the kind of crap you would expect from any January in the last 20 years. 

 

As for a New Year's cold snap, color me skeptical right now, there is really no sign of it showing up in the CFS or any of the GFS ensembles...The EURO is pretty much out on an island on this one, and it really hasn't shown much...Just some faint carrots.

Looks like the 0z ensemble had a lot of cold members to me. The one that drops to -25 seems a bit out there though.

[snow_wizard]

Wow the CFS tonight is a +PNA s**t show for January. Basically the kind of crap you would expect from any January in the last 20 years. 

 

As for a New Year's cold snap, color me skeptical right now, there is really no sign of it showing up in the CFS or any of the GFS ensembles...The EURO is pretty much out on an island on this one, and it really hasn't shown much...Just some faint carrots.

Looking a bit more closely 3 of the past 4 runs were actually quite good. About 75 to 80% of recent CFS runs have featured cold in January.

[snow_wizard]

The New Years cold snap that is being discussed may be showing up too early, but I think January will flex its muscles evetually.

 

Your use of the CFS is hilarious. You actually think it's worth a damn ?

 

The CFS does have some use if a high percentage of runs show the same thing in a given time frame. I have seen it outdo the GFS in the 10 to 15 day range before.

 

D**n nice 500mb composite BTW!

[Deweydog]

My god... Watching South Park Woodland Critter Christmas.

 

Golden.

 

Keep in mind it premeiered in December 2004. January 1950 (almost) redux followed. Hmmmm.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see it cold at night again. We only had a 2 day break on freezing mins here.

[TT-SEA]

Big increase in snow totals on the 00Z ECMWF...

 

[MossMan]

Big increase in snow totals on the 00Z ECMWF...

 

Wow!! I'm ok with this!