12/10-12/12 Plains/Midwest/Lakes Weekend Snowstorm

[Hawkeye]

Does EuroWx also have a 10:1 ratio map, or just the derived ratio map?

[Tom]

Is this energy on shore yet? Or are we still waiting so we can get better data?

First wave should be sampled Fri night and second Sat am roughly.

[jaster220]

Just a reminder for this and future systems..

 

 

 

As usual, the EPS/ECMWF is leading the way in terms of 0z 4-5 day CONUS SLP verification over the last month(Order is EPS-->ECMWF-->GEFS/UKIE-->GFS).

[Tom]

Just a reminder for this and future systems..

Btw, if you haven't noticed, thread name has been edited.

[Tony]

I was reading through another forum and found the bolded part somewhat interesting. 

 

"I would expect this storm to overperform relative to current guidance, and warm advection will be very limited, rain-snow line may end up closer to central IL and IN than currently speculated, but a very heavy snowfall likely ORD-DTW-YYZ, would expect 12-18 inches. The depth and stability of the cold air banked up over central Canada spilling out over fresh snow cover from recent storm in ND-nwMN will keep the Pacific wave train from making any moves but it will be strong enough to create strong cyclogenesis over KS-MO by Sunday night. Track of low most likely to be about SPI-CMH-SYR. Something in 980s not improbable, current models look too flabby for the energy peak available on 12th."

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro.image.jpeg

Just to be honest, not liking this one bit.  Leaves most Nebraskans high and dry.  Seems like it was further south yesterday.

[gosaints]

I was reading through another forum and found the bolded part somewhat interesting. 

 

"I would expect this storm to overperform relative to current guidance, and warm advection will be very limited, rain-snow line may end up closer to central IL and IN than currently speculated, but a very heavy snowfall likely ORD-DTW-YYZ, would expect 12-18 inches. The depth and stability of the cold air banked up over central Canada spilling out over fresh snow cover from recent storm in ND-nwMN will keep the Pacific wave train from making any moves but it will be strong enough to create strong cyclogenesis over KS-MO by Sunday night. Track of low most likely to be about SPI-CMH-SYR. Something in 980s not improbable, current models look too flabby for the energy peak available on 12th."

good old roger smith.

[Tony]

good old roger smith.

I'm guessing you're not a big fan of his.

[Niko]

I was reading through another forum and found the bolded part somewhat interesting. 

 

"I would expect this storm to overperform relative to current guidance, and warm advection will be very limited, rain-snow line may end up closer to central IL and IN than currently speculated, but a very heavy snowfall likely ORD-DTW-YYZ, would expect 12-18 inches. The depth and stability of the cold air banked up over central Canada spilling out over fresh snow cover from recent storm in ND-nwMN will keep the Pacific wave train from making any moves but it will be strong enough to create strong cyclogenesis over KS-MO by Sunday night. Track of low most likely to be about SPI-CMH-SYR. Something in 980s not improbable, current models look too flabby for the energy peak available on 12th."

He has DTW in the 12-18inch range. Where do I sign for that!

[gosaints]

I'm guessing you're not a big fan of his.

smart guy...  sometimes gets a little a little oversealous.  big believer in the moon driving weather patterns

[hlcater]

smart guy...  sometimes gets a little a little oversealous.  big believer in the moon driving weather patterns

Yea. He's definitely pretty bullish. Certainly a few inches over final totals you ask me.

[jaster220]

Btw, if you haven't noticed, thread name has been edited.

 

Nice! You should pull this reverse psychology on every system me thinks 

 

I was reading through another forum and found the bolded part somewhat interesting. 

 

"I would expect this storm to over-perform relative to current guidance, and warm advection will be very limited, rain-snow line may end up closer to central IL and IN than currently speculated, but a very heavy snowfall likely ORD-DTW-YYZ, would expect 12-18 inches. The depth and stability of the cold air banked up over central Canada spilling out over fresh snow cover from recent storm in ND-nwMN will keep the Pacific wave train from making any moves but it will be strong enough to create strong cyclogenesis over KS-MO by Sunday night. Track of low most likely to be about SPI-CMH-SYR. Something in 980s not improbable, current models look too flabby for the energy peak available on 12th."

 

Somebody else quite knowledgeable seems to agree on that part at least:

 

 

 

12/19/08 is the leading CIPS analog at 84 hours.  But again, going through the full list, it looks like we're going to snow farther south than almost all 15.

[Tony]

18z NAM for wave #2. Wave #1 was north again

[St Paul Storm]

Yea. He's definitely pretty bullish. Certainly a few inches over final totals you ask me.

I've probably received 20% of the snow he's predicted for my backyard over the last 3 years. He gets a little wild with his 'forecasts'.

[Tom]

18z NAM for wave #2. Wave #1 was north again

Would be even better if it can wrap those thunderstorms into cold sectors. Baby steps. Did the 1st wave tick south? I'm on my phone.

[Tony]

Would be even better if it can wrap those thunderstorms into cold sectors. Baby steps. Did the 1st wave tick south? I'm on my phone.

If it did tick south it wasn't much

[Tom]

If it did tick south it wasn't much

Looks like the 2nd wave gets going a little later than the other models.  Heading in the right direction I guess.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks a little south.  Wave 2 would be good for a lot of Nebraskans.

[Tom]

NAM 8.gif

Looks a little south.  Wave 2 would be good for a lot of Nebraskans.

A lot of potential with this second wave...

[CentralNebWeather]

A lot of potential with this second wave...

Excited to track it.

[Tony]

NAM seems to be the outliner with the first wave with regards to how far north it sets up.

[Tony]

LOT is going with roughly 3"-6" on wave #1. Says 2nd wave could be significant but too far out to go into specifics. Also talks a little about the next system after that.

[FV-Mike]

LOT is going with roughly 3"-6" on wave #1. Says 2nd wave could be significant but too far out to go into specifics. Also talks a little about the next system after that.

LOT also not favoring the NAM

[gosaints]

LOT also not favoring the NAM

Nobody would at this range much less 24 hours

[gosaints]

Nam stronger out west so far compared to 12z

[Tony]

Looking forward to the 0z runs to see what crazy changes transpire.  

[Tony]

Nam stronger out west so far compared to 12z

Watch the GFS come north now

[gosaints]

Watch the GFS come north now

Sorry I meant gfs

[gosaints]

Cuts over right southern lake michigan

[St Paul Storm]

Watch the GFS come north now

Definitely north thru hour 75

[Tom]

18z GFS much juicier and wide spread 12"+...getting stronger each run...

[Tony]

Model mayhem at it's finest. 18z runs always drive me nuts.

[hlcater]

R/S line gets as far north as Mt. Pleasant IA thru Chicago this run.

[East Dubzz]

Would like the second wave to be a little further south, just so I don't have to worry about rain becoming part of the mix. Looking good, though. Hopefully that second wave doesn't go too far north - I'd hate to miss out on both.

[Money]

Nice model spread 3 days out

[gosaints]

R/S line gets as far north as Mt. Pleasant IA thru Chicago this run.

Definetly a concrete mixer for some areas verbatim. Stronger storm more waa

[hlcater]

I think this is as far as the R/S line gets. based on the first wave, and where snow is projected to fall with that, I think this is about the limit the R/S line will travel

[NEJeremy]

both waves too far north to really do much for Omaha/Lincoln. Although the surface low on the 2nd wave is down in the panhandles, yet the heavier snow is way north in northern Nebraska. 

[gosaints]

I think this is as far as the R/S line gets. based on the first wave, and where snow is projected to fall with that, I think this is about the limit the R/S line will travel

Given current data sure but none of the waves are on shore. Plenty of room for changes

[CentralNebWeather]

both waves too far north to really do much for Omaha/Lincoln. Although the surface low on the 2nd wave is down in the panhandles, yet the heavier snow is way north in northern Nebraska.

I thought the same thing.