Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 no-- those are running totals the highest that I posted being OSH at .58" Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Hows the 6z nam and gfs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 DMX likely going with advisory and monitoring it for warning potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Keep talking about watching the seeder-feeder for Saturday. Wth is that? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific. This system very well could have some surprises yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Upgraded to a warning here this morning due to the consistency in the model track. 6-10" looking good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 MKX now talking about 8-11". There's still a good amount of spread, 06z NAM says 10" while the GFS/Ggem show 15". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific. This system very well could have some surprises yet. Yep, with an unusually high amount of moisture in the PNW running into an arctic airmass this thing might pop more than models are indicating. Feel like there are a lot more upsides to this storm than usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Keep talking about watching the seeder-feeder for Saturday. Wth is that? Lol http://parkseed.com/images/l/06611.jpg 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Yep, with an unusually high amount of moisture in the PNW running into an arctic airmass this thing might pop more than models are indicating. Feel like there are a lot more upsides to this storm than usual.Oh yea,,all those under the primary axis of the WAA band are going to get it good. Enjoy it! Looks good for 2-4ish here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific. This system very well could have some surprises yet. Map to go along with your comment. Looking good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 So, I pulled up the SREF plume viewer for Omaha and was surprised to see such high amounts...because there aren't really that many models showing anything more than a couple of inches. I know that the models in this tend to overdo it some (especially on the higher end), but perhaps we could get a little more than we're currently expecting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific. This system very well could have some surprises yet. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif I'm too slow 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif I'm too slowYours is a lot better..movie action! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Nothing major of note on the 12z nam. Defo band will contunue to be major wildcard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 All that moisture over-running the artic air. Only good things can come from this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Decent jump in snowfall totals for SE WI. 12-14". Less in Kenosha-Racine area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 How'd it look for msn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 I would say msn does well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Map to go along with your comment. Looking good!That's a deep subtropical connect! Looking better for N IL on the 12z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 WARNING 10:1 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121512/namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 NAM looking better for IA compared to yesterday's runs. Good trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Plenty of juice http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121506/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Money if you want to see the new weenie model check out the 3km NAM totals. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121512/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_54.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 While we're talking about the NAM... I prefer this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Seems like the Euro is a bit colder regarding 850's compared to the GFS around these parts. Using Grizz's Euro txt output, 850's only climb to -2.4C...meanwhile, the GFS brings the 0C line up to ORD. Interested to see how Lehs potential plays out...another wildcard besides the defo band... 06z GFS showing some convergence hugging the coastline... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121506/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 RGEM has the North Iowa peeps back in the WAA game as well. Not fully loaded yet on BW maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 For ORD: EURO 7", GFS 7.6" and now the NAM ticks upwards @ 5.8"....riding the southern edge...still not comfortable but that makes it all that much more exciting. Hope the trends continue upward and onward for those on the southern fringe! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 RGEM has the North Iowa peeps back in the WAA game as well. Not fully loaded yet on BW mapsI believe the RGEM has a south bias. Correct me if I'm wrong though. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 For ORD: EURO 7", GFS 7.6" and now the NAM ticks upwards @ 5.8"....riding the southern edge...still not comfortable but that makes it all that much more exciting. Hope the trends continue upward and onward for those on the southern fringe!This will be interesting to watch it unfold as all it would take is a 20-30 mile shift to be in the heavier snows. Also of great interest will be where the defo bands(if any) sets up as this could really enhance snowfall totals greatly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Up to 18k views! We are going to blow past the previous storm thread. Nice to see all the action and I'm sure many will enjoy another weekend snowstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lutzowgl14 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Hey Tom, thank you for all your information and knowledge. I have learned a lot on here and enjoy all the posts. How much snow do you think the Waukesha, WI area will get? The forecast seems to be calling for around 4-8 inches but the models seem to show much more! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 RGEM thru 48 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Hey Tom, thank you for all your information and knowledge. I have learned a lot on here and enjoy all the posts. How much snow do you think the Waukesha, WI area will get? The forecast seems to be calling for around 4-8 inches but the models seem to show much more!I think that is a conservative amount for your area and might get increased to 6-12" the way things are trending, with possible 12-14" totals if there is consistent banding over a given area which is a nowcast event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 12z GFS nearly identical to 06z on strength and placement through hour 54. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS has a nice defo band forming. Could lay down some heavy amounts of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 12z GFS showing a healthy defo band...bullseye E/C Wisco...model is picking up on a back-end lake plume... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS trending wetter for N IA and those on the southern edge of the storm...last 4 runs... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 The GFS sure has been consistent with that 12"+ area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 MKE area is going to get crushed...the lake set up is looking very favorable... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.