February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Bellona]

I'm not putting much stock into the NAM. Hope that doesn't bite me

[Money]

Under a WWA for 2-5 inches of snow and .1-.3 ice accumulations

[pack402]

Omaha peeps looking at a battle on short range models. rap/rgem vs 4knam/hrrr. These sharp cutoffs haven't worked in our favor yet this year though

[james1976]

Under a WWA for 2-5 inches of snow and .1-.3 ice accumulations

Wow if u get quarter inch of ice and a few inches snow on top thats gonna be a mess

[james1976]

I'm not putting much stock into the NAM. Hope that doesn't bite me

DMX said the NAM was an outlier per their morning AFD

[Bellona]

DMX said the NAM was an outlier per their morning AFD

Oh good!! Keeping my hope alive!!!

[Money]

Wow if u get quarter inch of ice and a few inches snow on top thats gonna be a mess

Milwaukee forecasting 5 inches of snow and .33 ice accumulations here with wind gusts up to 40 mph

[gosaints]

KLSE all in 10-18 in the point and click

[Money]

Mark Baden still not impressed

 

He said models are running too cold in the area and thinks it will be mostly rain

[gosaints]

I do think the changeover here could take longer than modeled

[james1976]

Milwaukee forecasting 5 inches of snow and .33 ice accumulations here with wind gusts up to 40 mph

Power outtages!

[Money]

I do think the changeover here could take longer than modeled

I'm hoping dynamic cooling can help with that. Precip is modeled to be really strong so it could happen

[Jaycee]

Rapid Refresh continues to be trash for us in Lincoln, only by a few miles. Thinking we'll stay mostly rain here. Hope to wake up tomorrow morning with a surprise snowfall.

[Bellona]

Well...ONE county away from blizz now...up to 6 inches...still think that is conservative...

[NEJeremy]

Comparing mesoanalysis to the RAP and HRRR, the pressure fields look pretty good, but they both have the low a little further northeast than observed on the SPC site, so maybe they have it moving a bit faster than realized. At any rate, something I have noticed is the trend to have a decent snowband of near 6" totals from the west of Omaha back to southwest to southcentral Nebraska. This goes west of Lincoln too.

19ZHRRR has 3-5" across Omaha, but a narrow tongue of 6-7" in the central part of Douglas county.

[Money]

I do think the changeover here could take longer than modeled

You're gonna get blasted in that defo band

 

35 dbz showing up on HRRR

[james1976]

Im in a blizz warning! 5-8 with 35mph gusts

[Bellona]

Im in a blizz warning! 5-8 with 35mph gusts

I'll just have to stick with my advisory and 6 inches lol...maybe i can get one more tick to the se and wind up blizz with you tomorrow

[Jaycee]

RGEM nails Lincoln and Omaha again. Over 6" in the city for both. This is going to be close-- one of the hardest things to predict is when the changeover occurs. If this happens earlier than anticipated we can definitely crank out some solid amounts down here.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017022318/rgem_asnow_ncus_11.png

[james1976]

I hope gosaints has a yardstick!

[NH4NU]

Currently small hail and thunder downtown LNK

[BrianJK]

I'd be happy if we break the 1" streak and GGEM/GFS show it being a possibility.

No way - keep it alive!

[Tony]

No way - keep it alive!

There is another record to be broken so I agree.

[Tom]

There is another record to be broken so I agree.

It's already broken...now its a matter of time when the streak ends?!

[Tony]

It's already broken...now its a matter of time when the streak ends?!

I believe there is another one...back to back months in the winter with less than 1" of snow has never happened.

[Tom]

I believe there is another one...back to back months in the winter with less than 1" of snow has never happened.

Ahhh, didn't know that...

[Tony]

Ahhh, didn't know that...

Kinda sad really..can only hope for a better winter next year. Hopefully Spring will come sooner rather than later this year.

[WBadgersW]

Tomorrow looks to be awful if the WWA is correct. 2-5" of snow with up .30" of ice. We'll see, it'll probably end up being straight rain.

[james1976]

Storm is really starting to come together

[james1976]

DMX saying thundersnow along highway 20 and north if tstorms develop to the south and run into the cold air. Talkin "very high" snow rates potentially.

[Bryan1117]

Hail covering the ground turning it white in Southwest Omaha, pretty good thunderstorm just moved through.

 

Temperature dropped from near 40 to 35 in the last hour with the storm passing through.

[Money]

DMX saying thundersnow along highway 20 and north if tstorms develop to the south and run into the cold air. Talkin "very high" snow rates potentially.

Yup gonna be some sick rates which should help accumulate on the surfaces/grass pretty quick even though we've been warm recently

[Jaycee]

Hail covering the ground turning it white in Southwest Omaha, pretty good thunderstorm just moved through.

 

Temperature dropped from near 40 to 35 in the last hour with the storm passing through.

 

Same thing happened here in Lincoln. It's really chilly out now. I

 

The Rapid Refresh models are hit and miss right now for Omaha and Lincoln. I really don't know what to expect at this point. As much as I don't want to side with the NWS, I think 1-3" is safe right now, unless the transition happens quicker.

[gosaints]

Corn at the start 37 degrees

[gabel23]

Sleet fell for a short period of time here, really don't know what to expect either. To me I think temp profiles are running colder than expected. Weather channel in Nebraska right now!

[Money]

23z HRRR predicted temps for right now:

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2017022323/000/sfct.us_mw.png

[Money]

That looks like 1-2 degrees warmer than what it is right now.

 

Dewpoints are also a tad on the high side 

[bud2380]

11" in Valentine NE as of 1:30. It's been snowing hard there all day

[gabel23]

11" in Valentine NE as of 1:30. It's been snowing hard there all day

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if there will be spots with close to 2 feet of snow when all is said and done.

[gabel23]

Thunder snow being reported in North Central Nebraska, that's a good sign!