March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Snowshoe]

Woke up to this on my phone this morning.

[Snowshoe]

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI

1232 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014



...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...



AN INTENSE ARCTIC AIR MASS DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES REGION LAST

NIGHT...LEADING TO NUMEROUS RECORDS BEING BROKEN. HERE IS A LIST

OF PRELIMINARY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BROKEN.



----------------------------------------------------------------

                 NEW RECORD      PREVIOUS

LOCATION          LOW TEMP        RECORD           YEAR

----------------------------------------------------------------

ANTIGO             -29             -19             1972

APPLETON           -12             -10             1943

GREEN BAY          -24             -10             1943 & 1950

MANITOWOC           -8              -6             1943

MARSHFIELD         -20             -17             1943

MERRILL            -32             -24             1943

OSHKOSH            -15              -8             1943

RHINELANDER        -28             -23             1972

STEVENS POINT      -29             -14             1972

WISCONSIN RAPIDS   -23             -22             1943

 

[Geos]

Woke up to this on my phone this morning.

 

Nice! ...not

 

 

-4.2° at my house for a low. Was +1° by the time I had to leave for work. 

 

16° with full sun in Racine.

[CentralNebWeather]

The Nebraska snow donut hole, boy have we seen that this winter.

[Tom]

18z GFS back to its cold/snowy pattern from Plains on east.  Something I was referring to would happen around March 10-12th period as there would be a good 2 week period of cold and snow before the pattern shifts to a SW Flow around the last week of March. 

[The Snowman]

Very stormy pattern expected March 12-20. Potential for a storm in our neck of the woods before best potential shifts east to the coast.

[james1976]

GFS showing warmup early next week. We'll see. Everytime it shows it, it never seems to happen.

[tim the weatherman]

GFS showing warmup early next week. We'll see. Everytime it shows it, it never seems to happen.

you are right james1976 that the nws calling lower 40's for my area under mostly sunny skies.

[Geos]

If the warm up stays for early next week, I'd say it could be well into the 40s. If SW winds are strong enough to mix that air to the ground.

 

Skilling going with 40° for Friday. 32° Thursday.

[james1976]

surprise snow tonight. coming down way hard. just measured 0.6"

[Money]

Geos is going to hate the long-range GFS this time around.

 

0 to -10 degrees for HIGHS on the 15th.

[Money]

GFS has 2 days above freezing through the 17th. 

[East Dubzz]

Geos is going to hate the long-range GFS this time around.

 

0 to -10 degrees for HIGHS on the 15th.

Lol, no way that happens, and if it did, I wave my white flag to this winter and give up! lol

[Geos]

Lol, no way that happens, and if it did, I wave my white flag to this winter and give up! lol

 

Haha. 

 

GFS is cold biased, enough said. GFS has 850mb temps approaching 50° for Monday. Combination with that and the nearly 45° angle, snow will be melting like mad.

 

0 - -10° for highs on the 15th of March - IMPOSSIBLE! GFS is joking around with us. 

850 mb temps are like -10°C at 276 hours. Way too warm to support anything that cold.

 

Record low max for that date in Chicago is 17°, 1893. Record low 6°, 1890.

Record low for MKE for that date 2°, 1877

[tim the weatherman]

Haha. 

 

GFS is cold biased, enough said. GFS has 850mb temps approaching 50° for Monday. Combination with that and the nearly 45° angle, snow will be melting like mad.

 

0 - -10° for highs on the 15th of March - IMPOSSIBLE! GFS is joking around with us.

good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country.

[East Dubzz]

good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country.

We don't need to stop talking about big snowstorms, because they can still happen if it can far cold air wrapped in, but pretty soon here the very brutal temps will go away. The DVN even had highs today to cold and they mentioned how the sun is now having a bigger effect, so highs below 0 are bascially impossible in mid-March. It can still be way below normal, but normal is getting much warmer, so it'll actually seem warm compared to what we've been getting. Like Geos said, GFS has been having a crazy cold bias as of late, and what it's showing is just ridiculous. But we can't count out snowstorms yet, still plenty of them left for those..

[Geos]

good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country.

 

Yep still showing the shifting of the blocking.

 

[abhidupage]

good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country.

Weren't you saying we were going to get 12-18" from like 3 storms this year? LOL

[abhidupage]

Haha. 

 

GFS is cold biased, enough said. GFS has 850mb temps approaching 50° for Monday. Combination with that and the nearly 45° angle, snow will be melting like mad.

 

0 - -10° for highs on the 15th of March - IMPOSSIBLE! GFS is joking around with us. 

850 mb temps are like -10°C at 276 hours. Way too warm to support anything that cold.

 

Record low max for that date in Chicago is 17°, 1893. Record low 6°, 1890.

Record low for MKE for that date 2°, 1877

I agree with you Geos We would need a big snowstorm to get us close to a 0 degree temp otherwise its gonna be pretty hard to achieve a sub zero low/high mid-march on.

[East Dubzz]

Yep still showing the shifting of the blocking.

 

Yeah, and looks like zonal flow may start to take over, which the DVN has been hinting at. That's fine with me. I mean it's not crazy warm, but mild weather sounds fine with me and maybe we can get some storms to fire up out west and bring a larger scale storm across our area.

[Money]

I agree with you Geos We would need a big snowstorm to get us close to a 0 degree temp otherwise its gonna be pretty hard to achieve a sub zero low/high mid-march on.

 

It shows snow the day before, so I'm guessing that could be part of why it shows cold temps.

[tim the weatherman]

Weren't you saying we were going to get 12-18" from like 3 storms this year? LOL

yes i did

[abhidupage]

It shows snow the day before, so I'm guessing that could be part of why it shows cold temps.

If thats the case then it could push zero. Does Ggem still have a weekend system or has it backed off on it?

[East Dubzz]

In the meantime, 11 degrees here and and breezy wind from the south with a cloud cover should keep temps right around there for most of the night. Nothing like last night. Man, can't believe it almost got to -15... Which was once again colder than Dubuque. I wonder if I am colder than Dubuque when there is a slight wind since it doesn't get as windy in my neighborhood as it would in the open. Makes sense, that's not the first time I've been several degrees colder than what Dubuque reported.

[Geos]

GFS isn't factoring in what time of year it is then. A month ago, yes I might actually believe it. or even 3 weeks.

 

I don't think the models have been exposed to this extensive snow cover so late in the season and they're probably struggling trying to figure out how cold or not so cold to project temps.

 

Will see what the 6z run brings. Could be more model drama. lol

[abhidupage]

yes i did

How did that pan out? Not too good. So I wouldn't say with 100% confidence that the countries not going to have a big snowstorm after the 16th. 3 or 4 of the biggest snowstorms in Chicago History have came after March 1st.

[East Dubzz]

GFS isn't factoring in what time of year it is then. A month ago, yes I might actually believe it.

 

I don't think the models have been exposed this extensive snow cover so late in the season and they're probably struggling trying to figure out how cold or not so cold to project temps.

 

Will see what the 6z run brings. Could be more model drama. lol

I could see maybe lows pushing zero if a storm came through and then cold air. I mean it got to -15 here last night, I wouldn't doubt 0 or so again for a low, but no way a high doesn't reach above 0, I just can't see that.

[tim the weatherman]

How did that pan out? Not too good. So I wouldn't say with 100% confidence that the countries not going to have a big snowstorm after the 16th. 3 or 4 of the biggest snowstorms in Chicago History have came after March 1st.

i agree

[tim the weatherman]

i am thinking that from the 16th on that our winter is done.

[East Dubzz]

i am thinking that from the 16th on that our winter is done.

I'm not. Just because we may finally see average temps doesn't mean the year is over.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS isn't factoring in what time of year it is then. A month ago, yes I might actually believe it. or even 3 weeks.

 

I don't think the models have been exposed to this extensive snow cover so late in the season and they're probably struggling trying to figure out how cold or not so cold to project temps.

 

Will see what the 6z run brings. Could be more model drama. lol

 

You're actually arguing in favor of potential subzero temps in the next week or two by implying that the models haven't dealt with extensive snow cover this late in the season, hence it may be underdoing the cold skewing towards climo.  I don't think that's the case, but your argument isn't helping your case.

[East Dubzz]

You're actually arguing in favor of potential subzero temps in the next week or two by implying that the models haven't dealt with extensive snow cover this late in the season, hence it may be underdoing the cold skewing towards climo.  I don't think that's the case, but your argument isn't helping your case.

Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense.

[tim the weatherman]

Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense.

east dubzz does make a good point that every time we get a warm up that we get a storm that knocks temps back down because the polar vortex and cold fronts from canada.

[midwest buildit]

pretty sure it can snow in march..and these are just the big ones..

 

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
4. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
5. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
6. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
7. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
8. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
9. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970
10. 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

Snowfall of 10 Inches or More - Storm Total

March 25-26, 1970 14.3 inches

March 2-3, 1954 11.8 inches

March 7-8, 1931 16.2 inches

March 25-26, 1930 19.2 inches

March 30-31, 1926 12.6 inches

March 23-24, 1897 10.0 inches

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense.

 

You're right about that, it could go either way.  In the case of the GFS it is probably underdoing temps, but hard to say.  The GFS has had trouble in the past not taking into account aspects like drought, I'm quite disappointed in the model given it's one of the main American computer models.

[Money]

euro still showing that storm it looks like.

 

994.9 in N. KY

[East Dubzz]

Got 1.5" here last night, temp got down to 6 degrees as well.

[Iowawx]

Looks like all models have backed off on that large storm that the Euro was showing. Weekend storm appears to be fading away as well. GFS hardly showing any snow after tonight. Subject to change of course and could come back. 

[East Dubzz]

Looks like all models have backed off on that large storm that the Euro was showing. Weekend storm appears to be fading away as well. GFS hardly showing any snow after tonight. Subject to change of course and could come back.

That big storm that gave us all that rain a little while back... the Euro originally showed that, backed off for a while, and then it eventually came back. Models aren't going to show the storm run after run this far out, they're simply not that good (heck they can't even figure it out 24 hours out...), so the storm can definitely come back and would not surprise me if it did..

[Tom]

00z Euro EPS Control model still showed a major snowstorm for IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/MI into the east coast even though the 00z Euro OP went south through the Ohio Valley.