May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

66/47 today with 0.08" of rain this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That Aumsville tornado hit my ex wife s church lol

[TT-SEA]

5/21/2006 might be a good analog. S-N moving severe warned storms in the valley. That was a fun evening.

Good insight as always. I need to look that up.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Constant trolling now.   

 

Record setting wet spring outside of a tiny area to the NE of the Olympics.   About as far from "typical" as possible in terms of rain in many areas.   And back-to-back record setting rainy seasons.   It does not get any wetter.   And we live a in a very wet place normally.  

 

Well it depends on whether you include what's technically winter in that (i.e. Feb/Mar). You can't expect spring weather from those months and I agree those were a little wetter than normal; however April has not been particularly abnormal outside of a few small areas. I'd say the previous two Aprils were the real outliers for being warm and dry when looking back at historic data. Either way we need rain in the spring, summer is just around the corner and we aren't fortunate enough to have the Aleutian Low keep things in check during the summer like the Icelandic Low does over Western Europe. Summers in Western Europe are much rainier than summers here.

[Front Ranger]

Stop trying to frame things a certain way. You said Portland in particular is homerish. All I said is there was no reason to single out a specific area. Just ask all of the people from the Seattle area who gave this regionally very good winter an F because it didn't snow as much in a relatively narrow urban corridor who's homerish.

 

Like you said. It isn't a bad thing. Human nature. But it seemed odd to throw the "especially Portland" comment in.

 

Last time I defend you against Tim's baseless attacks. I never once said "homerish". 

 

Everyone knows Portland has long been the forgotten, misunderstood little brother of Seattle. It's perfectly natural that folks from that area feel a little bit stronger urge to defend their fair city. 

 

I would know. I was born there.

[Jesse]

5/21/2006 might be a good analog. S-N moving severe warned storms in the valley. That was a fun evening.

I remember that day very well. I was working at Safeway and actually happened to run into Joe English, who used to forecast for KATU, right as the thunderstorms were moving in. I asked him why they missed those in the forecast.

[Timmy Supercell]

I wasn't comparing the whole season. Just the event itself.

 

This spring has been much more consistently rainy/slightly below average.

 

I remember May 2008 well. It made the t'storms feel very nostalgic because of that particular swing.

[TT-SEA]

Well it depends on whether you include what's technically winter in that (i.e. Feb/Mar). You can't expect spring weather from those months and I agree those were a little wetter than normal; however April has not been particularly abnormal outside of a few small areas. I'd say the previous two Aprils were the real outliers for being warm and dry when looking back at historic data. Either way we need rain in the spring, summer is just around the corner and we aren't fortunate enough to have the Aleutian Low keep things in check during the summer like the Icelandic Low does over Western Europe. Summers in Western Europe are much rainier than summers here.

Most of the area is crazy wet... water worries are as remote as possible right now for the region. Summer comes every year... its just a short break from the rain in our rainy climate.

[Jesse]

Last time I defend you against Tim's baseless attacks. I never once said "homerish".

 

Everyone knows Portland has long been the forgotten, misunderstood little brother of Seattle. It's perfectly natural that folks from that area feel a little bit stronger urge to defend their fair city.

 

I would know. I was born there.

Ok. You are trolling. Got it.

 

Just because your lame arguing style is routinely pointed out and owned by Portland area posters doesn't mean you need to hold a grudge against the city.

[Jbolin]

Here are some of the most picturesque tornado photos ever taken in the western PNW lowlands.

 

First, the EF3 that struck Kent, WA in Dec 1969. 

 

0b7fe283-8b02-461b-b381-8c7f4febf29b-130530_kent_tornado_lg.jpg

 

Second, the EF-1 that hit Gig Harbor, WA in Jan 2015.

 

1ed37742-24f8-4257-ac46-25a0e68f83f0-141011_waterspout_main_01.jpg

 

Third, the EF-2 in Aumsville, OR in Dec 2010.

 

hqdefault.jpg

 

And most recently, the EF-2 in Manzanita, OR in October of last fall.

 

maxresdefault (1).jpg

The last picture is not Manzanita, OR, in fact it's not even from the west coast. 

 

Further proving this is the fact there is a land mass behind the tornado which is very "stove pipe" in nature, additionally the Manzanita, OR tornado came ashore just slightly north of town and just after sunrise.

 

With that said I think it would be prudent to remove the last picture.

 

( In fact, here is the Mazanita, Or tornado )

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember that day very well. I was working at Safeway and actually happened to run into Joe English, who used to forecast for KATU, right as the thunderstorms were moving in. I asked him why they missed those in the forecast.

The streets in downtown Silverton flooded with that and my friends and I stripped to our boxers and splashed in the puddles. Good times we were so young and full of life.

[Front Ranger]

Ok. You are trolling. Got it.

 

Just because your lame arguing style is routinely pointed out and owned by Portland area posters doesn't mean you need to hold a grudge against the city.

 

Portland peeps are my homies. My family lives near there. I was just in the City of Roses recently. Took this pic.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember May 2008 well. It made the t'storms feel very nostalgic because of that particular swing.

I didn't move back to Oregon until August but it seems like we had a nocturnal t storm around maybe the 12th?

[Jesse]

Portland peeps are my homies. My family lives near there. I was just in the City of Roses recently. Took this pic.

 

IMG_20170421_122348371_HDR.jpg

That picture nicely captures Mount Hood's crushing inferiority complex. It doesn't like being compared to Rainier.

[TT-SEA]

Last time I defend you against Tim's baseless attacks. I never once said "homerish".

 

Everyone knows Portland has long been the forgotten, misunderstood little brother of Seattle. It's perfectly natural that folks from that area feel a little bit stronger urge to defend their fair city.

 

I would know. I was born there.

I would not calling pointing out other aspects of 2008 an "attack".

[Front Ranger]

The last picture is not Manzanita, OR, in fact it's not even from the west coast. 

 

Further proving this is the fact there is a land mass behind the tornado which is very "stove pipe" in nature, additionally the Manzanita, OR tornado came ashore just slightly north of town and just after sunrise.

 

With that said I think it would be prudent to remove the last picture.

 

( In fact, here is the Mazanita, Or tornado )

 

I thought it looked suspect, but decided to trust the internet out of laziness. Thanks for the correction, pic is removed.

[Jbolin]

I thought it looked suspect, but decided to trust the internet out of laziness. Thanks for the correction, pic is removed.

No problem

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland peeps are my homies. My family lives near there. I was just in the City of Roses recently. Took this pic.

 

IMG_20170421_122348371_HDR.jpg

I always remember you lived in Silverton. During a terrible period for Silverton weather though. I think you are a few years older than me, did you play any sports at Silverton?

[Jesse]

I would not calling pointing out other aspects of 2008 an "attack".

Yeah. I think he was just looking for an opportunity to make a backhanded statement about Portland.

[Front Ranger]

I would not calling pointing out other aspects of 2008 an "attack".

 

I was referring to when you said Jesse was "insanely defensive". Nothing to do with 2008.

[Front Ranger]

I always remember you lived in Silverton. During a terrible period for Silverton weather though. I think you are a few years older than me, did you play any sports at Silverton?

 

I actually lived in the Portland area until I was almost 10 before that. But yeah, two years of HS in Silverton, only one real snowfall in town during that time. Nice summer in '98, though. I just did track and field (long jump, triple jump, 400), would have tried to get into football and/or basketball but it was tough after having not played freshman/sophomore years.

[TT-SEA]

I was referring to when you said Jesse was "insanely defensive". Nothing to do with 2008.

That was just trolling in response to trolling.

[Timmy Supercell]

I didn't move back to Oregon until August but it seems like we had a nocturnal t storm around maybe the 12th?

 

Yes we had at least 2 or 3 nocturnal t'storms in summer 2008. 07/03, 08/16 and 08/17 if I am correct. They were all early AM storms, 2-4am ish. 

[Phil]

05/19/1993 also. Described on NCDC Storm Events Database as a "midwest like squall line" in the Willamette Valley. Isolated reports of golfball size hail and high winds.

There's that year again.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 3KM NAM fires the convection mostly along the Cascades on Thursday evening and then shoves it eastward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually lived in the Portland area until I was almost 10 before that. But yeah, two years of HS in Silverton, only one real snowfall in town during that time. Nice summer in '98, though. I just did track and field (long jump, triple jump, 400), would have tried to get into football and/or basketball but it was tough after having not played freshman/sophomore years.

I played varsity baseball at Silverton in 2000 before transferring to Kennedy in Mt Angel, for my jr and sr years. The 97-03' period was awful for snow there. They usually do okay with snow, but not during that time. Notable screw jobs were January 1998 and December 2000. The December 2000 one was especially painful, my mom worked in Keizer and we went to her work that evening and they had a good 3-4" on the ground. Ouch!

[wx_statman]

05/19/1993 also. Described on NCDC Storm Events Database as a "midwest like squall line" in the Willamette Valley. Isolated reports of golfball size hail and high winds.

 

I remember that one. I was a 4th grader in Canby, sitting in class, when the squall line passed. Kicked up a dust storm from a nearby field before the rain started. I remember we all ran to the window to watch the dust moving in. 

[Timmy Supercell]

FWIW... the 3KM NAM fires the convection mostly along the Cascades on Thursday evening and then shoves it eastward.

 

It is going to initiate on the cascades but I believe there is a legit risk for lowland storms. It's said that the flow is southerly which in some events there are storms that form west of the cascades. We don't always need SE flow for that.

[BLI snowman]

Then of course we have the devastating trio of twisters that struck Charleston, SC in August 2014.

 

maxresdefault.jpg

A lot of people actually aren't even aware of the Charleston earthquake in 1886. Pretty remarkable event and one of the bigger seismic anomalies.

[Timmy Supercell]

I remember that one. I was a 4th grader in Canby, sitting in class, when the squall line passed. Kicked up a dust storm from a nearby field before the rain started. I remember we all ran to the window to watch the dust moving in. 

 

That sounds exciting. I had only been less than 5 months old at the time, couldn't remember much of anything until 3-4 years. I have fond memories of some particularly good storms in 1998-1999.

[wx_statman]

The drizzly, gloomy transition to this warm pattern, and then the very short lived nature of the warm airmass coming up, is interesting.

 

Brought to mind the mid-May 2008 heatwave. I will never forget sitting under warm frontal drizzle with temps in the 50s then hitting mid-90s a few days later (with an unseasonably muggy airmass, as this one looks to be). This one obviously won't get as warm, but the spike and drop will be even more dramatic.

 

We had an evening t-storm drop 0.93" in one hour @ PDX on 5/24/2008 as well. Was an all-time record at the time, though it's been exceeded since. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of people actually aren't even aware of the Charleston earthquake in 1886. Pretty remarkable event and one of the bigger seismic anomalies.

I was not aware of that. Incredible.

[Timmy Supercell]

We had an evening t-storm drop 0.93" in one hour @ PDX on 5/24/2008 as well. Was an all-time record at the time, though it's been exceeded since. 

 

Ah yes, I recall that to the detail. Storms came in from the east that day. Behind the initial storms there were more streaming in. NWS issued a Flood Advisory right after sunset. Earlier before the sun went down, from 6-8pm there had been 3 separate Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for 3 cells in Washington/Clackamas/Multnomah counties. Not an extremely widespread event but each cell gained merit for their strength. I remember an article indicating 1.50" hail fell at Multnomah Falls.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

FWIW... the 3KM NAM fires the convection mostly along the Cascades on Thursday evening and then shoves it eastward.

 

It moves east pretty rapidly. It's a shame this doesn't have more of a negative tilt to it; we could still use the rain up here.

[wx_statman]

That picture nicely captures Mount Hood's crushing inferiority complex. It doesn't like being compared to Rainier.

 

Nah, I'm sure Mt. Hood is still coasting on the fact that both St. Helens and Mazama blew their tops off. Anything to make it look taller...

[Jesse]

We had an evening t-storm drop 0.93" in one hour @ PDX on 5/24/2008 as well. Was an all-time record at the time, though it's been exceeded since.

I remember that. We also had a similar heat wave in mid-August that year that crashed dramatically from close to 100 to 60 with heavy rain in a day or so.

 

2008 was a really fun year overall.

[wx_statman]

A lot of people actually aren't even aware of the Charleston earthquake in 1886. Pretty remarkable event and one of the bigger seismic anomalies.

 

That's one of the more interesting intraplate quakes. Along with New Madrid and Charlevoix (1663). Damaging quakes in areas not prepared for them, at all. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I remember that. We also had a similar heat wave in mid-August that year that crashed dramatically from close to 100 to 60 with heavy rain in a day or so.

 

2008 was a really fun year overall.

 

2008-2009 group overall is definitely a period to look back to. Actually I should probably start with Dec 2007 through end of 2009. Nostalgia times infinity.

[wx_statman]

I remember that. We also had a similar heat wave in mid-August that year that crashed dramatically from close to 100 to 60 with heavy rain in a day or so.

 

2008 was a really fun year overall.

 

Yeah, it was. Probably the most dynamic year in the last couple decades. 

[Phil]

That's one of the more interesting intraplate quakes. Along with New Madrid and Charlevoix (1663). Damaging quakes in areas not prepared for them, at all.

The quake we had in 2011 taught me never to take anything for granted. That was only a 5.8 and it caused major issues.

 

Some of these faults are very old and have remained dormant for relatively long periods of geologic time, often making them difficult to locate.