May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Meant for nino thread.

I figured as much. Funny. Without context it just seemed incredibly racist.

[stuffradio]

I figured as much. Funny. Without context it just seemed incredibly racist.

Best things in life have no context.

[Deweydog]

I figured as much. Funny. Without context it just seemed incredibly racist.

Incredibly. Indescribably. Iridescently.

[Jesse]

Best things in life have no context.

Life has no context.

[Phil]

Life has no context.

I was posting this exact response when I saw yours.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This has been going on for weeks with him. Its trolling. There is a 3 square mile area near his house that is in crippling drought while the rest of Vancouver Island and the Pacific Northwest has been experiencing epic wetness and setting rainfall records.

 

Sorry for being a minority, this area needs rain! Sunny and 63F this evening, feels eerily like a summer evening.

[Jesse]

Sorry for being a minority, this area needs rain! Sunny and 63F this evening, feels eerily like a summer evening.

Yeah, the sunset is pushing 8:30 now. Seems a lot later than usual, especially compared to the last few years.

[TT-SEA]

Sorry for being a minority, this area needs rain! Sunny and 63F this evening, feels eerily like a summer evening.

 

Scary!   Feeling sort of like a summer evening as we approach mid-May.    More prayers coming your way.   We are taking a huge risk at our house and having a fire and smores knowing that we could burn up the entire forest if one ember gets away from us.   We are all very sad that we finally get to enjoy an evening outside.   That should only happen for 10 days in late July.   Making the best of the situation though... and tolerating the temporarily pleasant weather.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah, the sunset is pushing 8:30 now. Seems a lot later than usual, especially compared to the last few years.

 

Last year was a leap year, our perspective is off.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Scary!   Feeling sort of like a summer evening as we approach mid-May.    More prayers coming your way.   We are taking a huge risk at our house and having a fire and smores knowing that we could burn up the entire forest if one ember gets away from us.   We are all very sad that we finally get to enjoy an evening outside.   That should only happen for 10 days in late July.   Making the best of the situation though... and tolerating the temporarily pleasant weather.  

 

It's all fun and games until somebody loses a house:

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

[TT-SEA]

It's all fun and games until somebody loses a house:

 

http://bcfireinfo.for.gov.bc.ca/Weather/Maps/pcp.png

 

Some areas did not see rain today.   It was actually the first dry day of the month at my house.    And only the 10th day since January without rain here.  

[Phil]

FWIW, the EPS weeklies cycle out the MJO and return to the default pattern during late May. In other words, we return to the Hudson/Baffin Bay vortex, SE-ridge, west coast/GOA low pattern to open the heart of the warm season.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the EPS weeklies cycle out the MJO and return to the default pattern during late May. In other words, we return to the Hudson/Baffin Bay vortex, SE-ridge, west coast/GOA low pattern to open the heart of the warm season.

 

Yeah... but its actually pretty benign.   Here is June 1st on the latest ECMWF weeklies:  

 

[Jesse]

Yeah... but its actually pretty benign. Here is June 1st on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

 

Looks like a marine layer pattern. But no blue make me happy boy! Blue bad.

[ShawniganLake]

Probably gonna be our more typical July 5th type of start to summer.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a marine layer pattern. But no blue make me happy boy! Blue bad.

 

Troll.

[TT-SEA]

Probably gonna be our more typical July 5th type of start to summer.

 

Maybe for consistent warm and sunny... but there will be plenty of summery days between now and then.  

[Phil]

Yeah... but its actually pretty benign. Here is June 1st on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

 

Try running the weeklies averaged over 7 days. Higher skill scores..also remember that ensemble means will wash out with time.

 

This isn't "benign" at all. It's just ensemble variance dampening the mean:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BCA38392-62ED-4F44-9F78-453F24389AAB_zpsqkaxpbwz.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ECC2F83D-C019-4B0F-B519-DE1AB2F0A5F8_zpshhqu4jtq.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AFFB5EDE-64BA-4F45-A509-DDB1CBB135D2_zpsl8bput9t.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F0CF0A41-D7A5-4F4A-B703-9E271A65D7F5_zpsvtvouxrl.png

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe for consistent warm and sunny... but there will be plenty of summery days between now and then.

Yea. Probably.

[Phil]

Sometimes you have to mentally extract the pattern from the ensemble mean. Everything will look "benign" once out several weeks in advance, so that's an incorrect interpretation of the solution depicted.

[TT-SEA]

Other than the first trough... it looks very benign for us.   

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes you have to mentally extract the pattern from the ensemble mean. Everything will look "benign" once out several weeks in advance, so that's an incorrect interpretation of the solution depicted.

 

Either way it will likely be rather benign for our area.   We saw that last July.   Troughing and cooler air aloft is sometimes sunnier and more enjoyable here in the warm season.

[Phil]

850mb temperatures..this out to late June:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C646A52A-8490-4657-96D8-A649786BEBEA_zpsce9o52si.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93FDF690-5C78-4531-9DA8-4DDB35272AFB_zpszgqlowlo.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64291F14-152F-4F66-AA2A-5E0E8B9084B8_zpsb6swxhhk.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DDB72A2-63DF-43B7-A69C-4C133F195809_zpsbeajauaw.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/699F51DF-B8C6-4DAE-8937-0428247DDF03_zpshj5l22wu.png

[TT-SEA]

850mb temperatures..this out to late June:

 

 

Looks very nice overall.

[Jesse]

Apparently this summer might be benign in the PNW. Well now I've heard everything!

[Phil]

Either way it will likely be rather benign for our area. We saw that last July. Troughing and cooler air aloft is sometimes sunnier and more enjoyable here in the warm season.

Not the same pattern, but it depends what your definition of "benign" is. You'll have more GOA/BC troughing this go around, rather than a -PNA/GOA ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Apparently this summer might be benign in the PNW. Well now I've heard everything!

 

Usually is benign.  

[Jesse]

Usually is benign.  

 

No blue on map mean super benign!

[TT-SEA]

No blue on map mean super benign!

 

Troll.  

[Jesse]

Other than the first trough... it looks very benign for us.   

 

Troll.

[Jesse]

Some areas did not see rain today.   It was actually the first dry day of the month at my house.    And only the 10th day since January without rain here.  

 

Troll.

[Phil]

Looks very nice overall.

Sure, I guess. A few degrees colder than average with more zonal/onshore flow in the mid/upper levels vs last year. Probably will be a similar pattern (aloft) to 1980, 1993, 2010, or 2011.

 

FWIW, 2010 has been running at the top of the EPS analog set, though I personally don't like that year as an analog.

[TT-SEA]

Troll.

 

No... that was just a factual post.   

[Jesse]

No... that was just a factual post.   

 

Troll.

[Phil]

No... that was just a factual post.

Whoosh.

[Jesse]

Anyhow, Tim's constant trolling aside, it has been a great last few days. If we can get a break in early May without a ridiculous warm airmass overhead it can make for some of the most picturesque weather around here, IMO. The still snowy mountains and freshly green plants add to the scene.

[Phil]

[troll] Gonna be a wet, drippy, drizzly summer at Tim's house.

 

Muahahahaha. [/troll]

[TT-SEA]

Anyhow, Tim's constant trolling aside, it has been a great last few days. If we can get a break in early May without a ridiculous warm airmass overhead it can make for some of the most picturesque weather around here, IMO. The still snowy mountains and freshly green plants add to the scene.

 

You are the only one trolling.

 

And it has been visually gorgeous.

[Jesse]

You are the only one trolling.

 

And it has been visually gorgeous.

 

Troll.

[Jesse]

[troll] Gonna be a wet, drippy, drizzly summer at Tim's house.

 

Muahahahaha. [/troll]

 

I really hope so!