Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I think this is a more difficult summer to forecast than normal. My number one analog is 1991, followed by 2014. 1986 seems like a decent analog as well. I wouldn't rule out a 1983-type summer, but I think that's less likely. But the list of years above had nothing to do with my analogs, just examples of years where the general warm/dry summer pattern set in during May.Understood. I agree with the difficulty, but I think that uncertainly is centered more over the North Atlantic and Arctic this year, rather than over the NPAC. Though obviously, the NAO is a significant player on the summer NPAC state, much more than during the winter. Still, without dateline/Pacific forcing in the background state, anything resembling a +PNA will be tough, if not impossible, to obtain in the long run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Thanks! Sorry for agreeing with Phil. You jumped in to challenge me by default. Ha, had nothing to do with Phil. Just seemed like a really obvious point. The models are extremely dry/warm right now...of course that will change, and June will almost certainly feature at least one wet/cool period. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Ha, had nothing to do with Phil. Just seemed like a really obvious point. The models are extremely dry/warm right now...of course that will change, and June will almost certainly feature at least one wet/cool period. My statement was directly related to Phil stating that the models are going to turn (and possibly without warning) to a cooler/troughier scenario. I said that was my general feeling as well. Primarily because it makes sense when you look at our history. Thanks for the lengthy subsequent discussion challenging me first on the fact that sometimes it does stay warm and dry through September and that its likely that there will be a cooler/wetter period ahead. Great insight! Feels like you are just looking for something to nitpick. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I have noticed at times in the models that little events happening upstream can have a profound effect later on. Or maybe I am imagining it that way. You're definitely correct about that, but usually we're talking about burps lasting 3-5 days. This one started a 10 day feedback loop to counter the tropical forcing, then will be reinforced by an equally fluky MJO/CCKW juxtaposition timed perfectly with the EAMT to maintain the ridge while reversing both the Asian and polar states (basically everywhere except over the western United States, where the state is maintained). You have to go back to 2012 for the most recent warm-season extratropical excursion of this magnitude. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Some of those had prolonged cool periods interspersed, though. July 1986 and August 1995 were both very cool (by today's standards). True. It's very, very rare to have every month from May-Sep be warmer than normal. Even 1958 turned cool in September, as did 2015. 1994, 2013, and 2014 pulled it off for some places. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 My statement was directly related to Phil stating that the models are going to turn (and possibly without warning) to a cooler/troughier scenario. I said that was my general feeling as well. Primarily because it makes sense when you look at our history. Like I said, just seemed like a very obvious point. They have nowhere to go right now but cooler/troughier. Nothing personal. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Some of those had prolonged cool periods interspersed, though. July 1986 and August 1995 were both very cool (by today's standards). I would welcome another 1995 despite that year having cool downs. I'm sure you know my reason why by looking at my username. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Like I said, just seemed like a very obvious point. They have nowhere to go right now but cooler/troughier. Nothing personal. Then we all agree. I think Phil's point was valid and interesting. I said that I had the same general sense. Thanks again for the great follow-up discussion! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Nice day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Then again, nearly all of the analog years I'm looking at actually did feature a period of western ridging in April or May, and the few years that didn't usually ended up featuring one in June or July. So, maybe there's an underlying process at work that hasn't been discovered yet. It's almost like Mother Nature is purposely taking pity on the region after fire-hosing it for 8+ months. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Then again, nearly all of the analog years I'm looking at actually did feature a period of western ridging in April or May, and the years that didn't often featured one in June or July. So, maybe there's an underlying process at work that hasn't been discovered yet. It's almost like Mother Nature is purposely taking pity on the region after fire-hosing it for 8+ months. This is how I do my forecasting. Silly of course because I do not understand all of the global drivers. I just go by what typically happens here using 125 years of historical data. Which is nothing of course in the big picture. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Then we all agree. I think Phil's point was valid and interesting. I said that I had the same general sense. Thanks again for the great follow-up discussion! It wasn't clear to me whether your point was that warm/dry spells in May are usually followed at some point by cooler/troughier weather in June (duh), or that a warm/dry pattern in May rarely bleeds into a warm/dry summer. Thanks for clarifying! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Just hit 86 here, no wind. Gonna play on the water slide when the kiddo gets outta school! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 This is how I do my forecasting. Silly of course because I do not understand all of the global drivers. I just go by what typically happens here using 125 years of historical data. Which is nothing of course in the big picture. I think there's a place for both. And there are so many variables, that even if you're aware of all the major forcings and how they work, they could combine in a way that creates a different scenario. Or another, unrecognized factor could emerge. Weather is complicated and chaotic. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 18Z GFS turns quite troughy after day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 18Z GFS turns quite troughy after day 10.Yeah, this 18z run makes more sense to me, especially over the NPAC and western Arctic. Timing is the big question, as usual. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 It's funny Tim acts like people in the pnw like this kind of weather. Everyone I've talked to today is bitching about the heat and how much they hate it. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 18Z GFS turns quite troughy after day 10.We were warned this could happen without warning!! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 It's funny Tim acts like people in the pnw like this kind of weather. Everyone I've talked to today is bitching about the heat and how much they hate it. Yeah... that is how I am acting. Its over 90 degrees down there. Outside of our summer goldilocks range of 70-82. I am sure everyone would love 48-degree rain all summer too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 We were warned this could happen without warning!! I have learned not to bet against Phil in the big picture... simple as that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 I have never learned not to bet against Phil in the big picture... simple as that.You just never learn. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 You just never learn. Crap... typo. I guess that is also true though! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 91 at PDX. Would have set a record yesterday or tomorrow, but not today. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 It's funny Tim acts like people in the pnw like this kind of weather. Everyone I've talked to today is bitching about the heat and how much they hate it. What I hate is withdrawal from thunderstorms. I'll endure 100 degrees if it means I get my fix at the end of the tunnel. Jokes aside... lol I guess when I was younger I sorta complained about it being hot but now I could care less. I see it too around me. Full grown adults who do not have a middle ground for weather. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 I have learned not to bet against Phil in the big picture... simple as that.Thanks. Now I'm gonna screw up somehow, and all faith in me will be lost. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Crap... typo. I guess that is also true though!There's an infinite amount of potential knowledge permeating the universe, all of it just waiting to be learned. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Thanks. Now I'm gonna screw up somehow, and all faith in me will be lost. Nahhh... little things can screw up specific forecasts but you have proven an in-depth knowledge of the big picture drivers. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Nahhh... little things can screw up specific forecasts but you have proven an in-depth knowledge of the big picture drivers.You're gonna turn Flatiron green. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Looks like we might be waiting another year for a 92+ event in May. Unless the models suddenly turn dramatically warmer for next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Topped out at 87 here, awesome day!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 High of 83 at KLMT (but haven't seen the 6 hour max yet). The record is 87 in 2001. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 You're gonna turn Flatiron green. It's always all about me for you. Obsess much? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 It's always all about me for you. Obsess much? The magnetic pull of your forecasting prowess is inescapable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 The magnetic pull of your forecasting prowess is inescapable. I get that a lot. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 I get that a lot. Self-affirmation can do wonders. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Kinda odd that EUG was only slightly warmer than SEA for this warm spell. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Some pretty high dewpoints in the south valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Some pretty high dewpoints in the south valley. Extremely dry humidity here. Below 20%. That better change if I want booms later in the week. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Eugene has become a humidity vortex! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Eugene has become a humidity vortex!L'il Dallol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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