May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS looks like its heading towards the warm and ridgy scenario for next week.

Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.

[TT-SEA]

Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.

Congratulations!

[ShawniganLake]

Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.

Seemed like you had been pretty quiet. Congrats!

[Deweydog]

Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.

Is she pregnant again yet?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is she pregnant again yet?

Thanks everyone. This should be the last for awhile. 4th girl so may try for a boy at some point.

[Phil]

12Z GFS looks like its heading towards the warm and ridgy scenario for next week.

Or not..

 

If there's a ridge next week it likely won't last long. Removal of AAM begins June 7th. I always lean towards deeper western troughing/-PNA when that happens..I've made the mistake of underestimating that response so many times.

[TT-SEA]

Or not..

 

If there's a ridge next week it likely won't last long. Removal of AAM begins June 7th. I always lean towards deeper western troughing/-PNA when that happens..I've made the mistake of underestimating that response so many times.

Where can I track the AAM?

[Jesse]

Still in the 50s down here with the marine layer holding on.

 

Wasn't today supposed to hottest of our long weekend, capping off a three day stretch of low-mid 90s?

[TT-SEA]

Still in the 50s down here with the marine layer holding on.

 

Wasn't today supposed to hottest of our long weekend, capping off a three day stretch of low-mid 90s?

 

I am glad the warmth was tempered.

 

74 here now.

[Jesse]

Another 12 hours, another wildly different Euro run.

 

Seems like the models are having a hard time figuring out how to handle an unusually strong and southward displaced NE Pacific jet, at least for this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

77 here... only 58 at SEA.   But the low clouds have cleared there now so it should warm up.  

[Phil]

Where can I track the AAM?

I'll link you to the site I use when I get home tonight.

 

I tell ya, AAM almost never fails me.

[Phil]

Another 12 hours, another wildly different Euro run.

 

Seems like the models are having a hard time figuring out how to handle an unusually strong and southward displaced NE Pacific jet, at least for this time of year.

Yeah, this is even worse than I thought it would be.

 

I mean, you always see model swings when AAM exchanges are running counter to the tropical forcing background, but this getting ridiculous.

[ShawniganLake]

77 here... only 58 at SEA. But the low clouds have cleared there now so it should warm up.

Similar here.... 76F but only mid to upper 50s along the ocean in Victoria. It's probably sunny there but just a cool sea breeze.

[TT-SEA]

My son... pond skimming at Mt Bachelor yesterday.    He had never even tried it before and came in 3rd place.   And he stuck the landing.   

 

 

 

[Phil]

Wow.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4B838DC0-4F4A-4BEA-90A1-3AF1A2884A5F_zpswfyeiwjv.png

[TT-SEA]

Wow.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4B838DC0-4F4A-4BEA-90A1-3AF1A2884A5F_zpswfyeiwjv.png

That looks fairly bland to me.

[Jesse]

That looks fairly bland to me.

I think he is referring more to the very large area of below normal heights than to the direct affects on our region.

[Phil]

That looks fairly bland to me.

It's a cool/zonal pattern, verbatim, but what's more impressive is that most of the ensemble members are freezing the crap out of the high latitudes. Asian monsoons are vital in warming the Arctic during the summer, and they're struggling again this year.

[TT-SEA]

It's a cool/zonal pattern, verbatim, but what's more impressive is that most of the ensemble members are freezing the crap out of the high latitudes. Asian monsoons are vital in warming the Arctic during the summer, and they're struggling again this year.

 

 

Ahhh.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny and 66 now.

[TT-SEA]

84 here today with wall-to-wall sunshine... wrappimg up a perfect holiday weekend.

 

Not one cloud has passed over the sun for the last 4 days here. Very nice timing.

[Jesse]

Very pretty day up at Lost Lake. There are still lots of snow drifts around, but most the camp sites are open.

 

[ShawniganLake]

84 here today with wall-to-wall sunshine... wrappimg up a perfect holiday weekend.

 

Not one cloud has passed over the sun for the last 4 days here. Very nice timing.

81F here today. Places further inland topped out around 84F on the southern island.

[Phil]

This 00z GFS run is garbage after 132hrs.

[TT-SEA]

This 00z GFS run is garbage after 120hrs.

Link me to a place to track the AAM.

[Phil]

Link me to a place to track the AAM.

Here's a free site (GFS based). Scroll down for current projections: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

[TT-SEA]

Here's a free site (GFS based). Scroll down for current projections: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

 

 

Awesome... thanks!  

[Phil]

Awesome... thanks!

No problem. I'm working with a few peers on a better AAM website on the UMD database that will include tendency calculations as well.

[Blizzard777]

Interesting clouds at sunset tonight!

[luminen]

A cloudless and warm day until very late today but thankfully not too hot as I was expecting. Tomorrow will be interesting though with thunderstorm threat.

 

Still a balmy 68F at nearly 11PM though.

[luminen]

Woke up to loud boom of thunder and it's still going. Raining a bit but not too much yet.

[ShawniganLake]

Thunder here too.

[Jesse]

Looking like a fairly variable pattern going forward.

[ShawniganLake]

Nature is taking care of the lawn watering that I had been putting off. Just pouring right now.

[TT-SEA]

Nature is taking care of the lawn watering that I had been putting off. Just pouring right now.

 

That would be nice... its drizzly and gloomy here but its not adding up to much.   If its going to rain then it should really rain.  

[Phil]

ECMWF has joined the fail party, albeit not to the extent of the GFS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F1299F8E-B3AA-450E-8061-039ECD731C26_zpsrcaeam0d.png

[Jesse]

Temps only in the mid-upper 50s throughout the metro area this afternoon. Pretty impressive marine layer.

[Phil]

12z GEFS looks like something Jim/Jesse et al drew up.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57185B0C-A6CA-4807-9130-2E77931938B2_zpsrx6kqtca.gif

[Jesse]

ECMWF has joined the fail party, albeit not to the extent of the GFS:

 

 

Verbatim, the 12z Euro would put your cool June call in jeopardy with a fairly warm first 1/3.