jaster220 Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 ^^^ Nice Torch! (hopefully it's still lagging from last year's outcome..) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 You bet I do , but you get lake effect where you live, so something like this is more common for your area. I can receive a snowfall such as that pic from a big Winterstorm, whereas you can collect snowfall from LES as well. Man, I hope we can get something like that this Winter. I mean, look at that beautiful snowfall on that pic. Can you imagine 2 days later, another footer+? Try now to imagine that pic with more snow. I get LES in Marshall but I'm still 80 miles from Lk. Michigan so I'll nevva see anything like that at home. At work, maybe.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Here's a post from a met diagnosing the latest ECWMF seasonal: Huge flip! New Sept ECWMF seasonal now forecasts weak-mod La Nina for boreal winter. Different look in NoAm b/c of this- snowy NW-Midwest. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 I get LES in Marshall but I'm still 80 miles from Lk. Michigan so I'll nevva see anything like that at home. At work, maybe.. Yes, but ya still get LES, no matter how ya slice it. For me to get LES, they have to survive across the state, if they do, or maybe get LES from Lake Huron with a NNE wind ( or is it a north wind...you probably know the answer to that) and thats a BIG maybe. Jaster, you have it betta there in your neck of the woods, in terms of snowfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Cant wait for new Winter Outlooks to come out. Hopefully, snowy and frigid ones. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 8, 2017 Report Share Posted September 8, 2017 Yes, but ya still get LES, no matter how ya slice it. For me to get LES, they have to survive across the state, if they do, or maybe get LES from Lake Huron with a NNE wind ( or is it a north wind...you probably know the answer to that) and thats a BIG maybe. Jaster, you have it betta there in your neck of the woods, in terms of snowfall. Won't argue that last point.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 9, 2017 Report Share Posted September 9, 2017 Won't argue that last point.. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 The Old Farmers Almanac was out when I grabbed groceries this evening. In a nutshell it has our sub shown as "mild and snowy" but with a funky wet streak up thru Illinois that ought to make Tom shake his head. Of note, they push the "cold and snowy" zone south down to OKwx's region. Almost like an 07-08 & 09-10 hybrid if you ask me. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 The Old Farmers Almanac was out when I grabbed groceries this evening. In a nutshell it has our sub shown as "mild and snowy" but with a funky wet streak up thru Illinois that ought to make Tom shake his head. Of note, they push the "cold and snowy" zone south down to OKwx's region. Almost like an 07-08 & 09-10 hybrid if you ask me.That sounds so ridiculous. I am shocked they even posted it. Dont trust a word they say. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 That sounds so ridiculous. I am shocked they even posted it. Dont trust a word they say. I wish I could, but their map for SMI last year was pretty good i.e. "warm and wet" Anyways, here's their map fwiw: Yeah, Idk how you get cold down south with us warm. That'd be like a Nino winter where the cold is timed perfectly to give the TN valley on east to the Mid-Atlantic a snowstorm, then back to "torchy" in the Lakes. Now if they meant temps relative to norms, then "average and snowy" would've been better than mild and snowy. Even with that, in order for states to our south to get below normal, that air mass has to move in from the north, so we'd be pretty cold as well. Just see Feb 2015 for an example. If we have any snow cover, it'll be cold up our way as well. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 I wish I could, but their map for SMI last year was pretty good i.e. "warm and wet" Anyways, here's their map fwiw: US_winter-2017-18 Old Farmers Almanac.jpg Yeah, Idk how you get cold down south with us warm. That'd be like a Nino winter where the cold is timed perfectly to give the TN valley on east to the Mid-Atlantic a snowstorm, then back to "torchy" in the Lakes. Now if they meant temps relative to norms, then "average and snowy" would've been better than mild and snowy. Even with that, in order for states to our south to get below normal, that air mass has to move in from the north, so we'd be pretty cold as well. Just see Feb 2015 for an example. If we have any snow cover, it'll be cold up our way as well.Wait woah woah. Let me get this straight. They have all the way down towards the Arklatex being cold and snowy. Meanwhile, Eastern MT and WY and Western ND and SD are mild and wet aka mild and rainy? I don't see how that is possible but okay. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Wait woah woah. Let me get this straight. They have all the way down towards the Arklatex being cold and snowy. Meanwhile, Eastern MT and WY and Western ND and SD are mild and wet aka mild and rainy? I don't see how that is possible but okay.It would in all likelihood be versus averages not mild and rainy where there would normally be snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 It would in all likelihood be versus averages not mild and rainy where there would normally be snow. nope. clearly says wet, not white. Just a screwy map in so many ways Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Cold n snowy for Phoenix, Albuquerque and Dallas!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 I wish I could, but their map for SMI last year was pretty good i.e. "warm and wet" Anyways, here's their map fwiw: US_winter-2017-18 Old Farmers Almanac.jpg Yeah, Idk how you get cold down south with us warm. That'd be like a Nino winter where the cold is timed perfectly to give the TN valley on east to the Mid-Atlantic a snowstorm, then back to "torchy" in the Lakes. Now if they meant temps relative to norms, then "average and snowy" would've been better than mild and snowy. Even with that, in order for states to our south to get below normal, that air mass has to move in from the north, so we'd be pretty cold as well. Just see Feb 2015 for an example. If we have any snow cover, it'll be cold up our way as well.Look at how they have Michigan set up......."Mild N Wet" for my area, "Mild and Snowy" for your area and "Mild and Dry" for NMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Look at how they have Michigan set up......."Mild N Wet" for my area, "Mild and Snowy" for your area and "Mild and Dry" for NMI. Just a screwy map in so many ways Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Rumor is there's been a 6th solar ejection already. What happened to our "quiet sun"?? Isn't that potentially bad timing for our winter. No expert on the stuff, but seems I recall somebody saying if the timing is just right (all wrong if you love cold-n-snow) those things will wreck what would otherwise be a good season. SOOOO many ways to get hosed, omg Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted September 11, 2017 Report Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just plan on a crapy winter and anything we do get is a bonus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Good news...starting to see some model consistency as the latest UKMET showing a La Nina for the heart of winter DJF...central-based for that matter... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_sst_months46_global_deter_public.png Looks very active and wet.... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_prec_months46_global_deter_public.png SE Ridge??? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png Not terribly cold overall, except for the PAC NW... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Since the beginning of September, we saw Summer flip to Winter quickly across Alaska and northern Canada. An early season snow cover has begun to take shape across N.A. and into Siberia. The map below is the state of the snow cover on Sept 1st... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2017/ims2017244_alaska.gif Here is yesterday's snow/ice cover map...you can see the increase of snow across the Archipelago regions of Canada... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2017/ims2017254_alaska.gif Where do we go from here??? The pattern is favorable for more snow to build and continue to grow across Siberia/Archipelago and the mountains of Alaska. The snow advance is nearing the pace of 2013-14 across N.A. at the moment. I'm curious to see if we beat that year at some point this month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 One day this warm run of winters will end for me. Hopefully it starts this year or next. So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 One day this warm run of winters will end for me. OK-CD00.tavg.Winter.png Hopefully it starts this year or next. So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed.Hey, you have the UKMET in your camp showing a decent mean pressure pattern for cutters to dig far enough south for ya...very wet also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Now, that's what I'm talking about......."2013-14 Outlook" 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Looks very active and wet.... Can't start soon enough LOL! A bit concerning those temp avg's though. Would like to see that lower over our way. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Now, that's what I'm talking about......."2013-14 Outlook" My personal fave from 4 yrs ago 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 My personal fave from 4 yrs ago Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpgSweet! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 My personal fave from 4 yrs ago Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg My personal fave from 4 yrs ago Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpgIf you think about, that is almost as spot on as you can get for a long range forecast. I think they did a good job. Do they have any prelim outlooks out yet? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 One more, why not? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 If you think about, that is almost as spot on as you can get for a long range forecast. I think they did a good job. Do they have any prelim outlooks out yet? Sure was. As said, for some reason that season was a "slam-dunk" easy forecast for 80+% of those who were brave enough to tackle it. Wish they were all that straight-forward tbh. No, haven't looked for theirs yet, was still too early - might now though Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 While we're hoping that a -QBO will be a big help this winter, strangely this snippit from Sep of '13 indicates they were expecting a +QBO (that was apparently overridden by other drivers)? Also of note, this indicates some kind of correlation between hurricane season height placements, and 5 mos later for winter. During Irma, we just had quite the trough over the GL's as well.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 One day this warm run of winters will end for me. OK-CD00.tavg.Winter.png Hopefully it starts this year or next. So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed. 3 of last 9 below, heck if you were batting in the majors you'd have an all-star avg @ .333 But yeah, look at those (3) DECADES of mostly below normal winters! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 One more, why not? Winter 2013-14 Snow Day Graphic.jpg Winter_Outlook_2013-14.jpgNice Winter words...I like best where it saids "Copious amounts of snowfall" 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Do they have any prelim outlooks out yet? Everyone's out to make a buck online, but looks like he publishes 1st call to the non-paying public Sept 30th 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 I predict that the California and the rest of the West Coast will see another Wet Winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 I predict that the California and the rest of the West Coast will see another Wet Winter.Hopefully, those lows can turn into "Panhandle Hooks" or "Colorado Lows" and hammer the GL's region with heavy snow and wind and other parts of the nation as well this Winter. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Everyone's out to make a buck online, but looks like he publishes 1st call to the non-paying public Sept 30th 20170912 Snow-day ad.PNGLooks like a couple of ft of snow! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Looks like a couple of ft of snow! Could be many places in the mountains, but could be Boston a couple yrs ago as well. It was me in my driveway Feb '14 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Could be many places in the mountains, but could be Boston a couple yrs ago as well. It was me in my driveway Feb '14 OOOOH...a guessing game , eh! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 So some IL poster on Amwx said he was at "another forum" where every winter is going to be another 2013-14 and everything's over-hyped about the coming winter. People pushed him and he said it was here, lol. Saying how the followers drink the koolaid in here. Too funny. He seems to be rubbing peeps the wrong way when he pops in over there with warminista bias to his comments. Ofc, he could be posting under another name here, but I don't see any regular posters in here that would match that profile. Some traditional core winter posters are ready to have him gone, I know that.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 12, 2017 Report Share Posted September 12, 2017 Speaking of Winter, January 2015, Boston...take a look at this: WHOA 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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