September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Skies are now cloudy and temps are @ 58F. Its actually raw out there. Break out the blankets tonight as temps drop into the low to mid 40s.

 

Btw: colors are starting to show. Kinda early this year!

[jaster220]

Skies are now cloudy and temps are @ 58F. Its actually raw out there. Break out the blankets tonight as temps drop into the low to mid 40s.

 

Btw: colors are starting to show. Kinda early this year!

Stepped outta work to heavy LEShowers and 55 degs! Definitely 2-3 wks early for this and a massive contrast from the last two Autumn's. If Tom's call for a neg NAO comes to pass, there should be some snow flying around MI next month

[Niko]

Stepped outta work to heavy LEShowers and 55 degs! Definitely 2-3 wks early for this and a massive contrast from the last two Autumn's. If Tom's call for a neg NAO comes to pass, there should be some snow flying around MI next month

Tis The Season!

[jaster220]

Wrecking ball CAT-5 Irma takes out camera at Maho Beach

 

http://www.mahobeachcam.com

[Niko]

My area had a lightning show in the sky for a bit. No thunder or rain. Lightning was seen in the far distance.

[Niko]

Irma so far is the 2nd strongest Hurricane in the Atlantic. Very impressive.

[Niko]

TWC said that Irma is the first hurricane ever to hold the longest 185mph for such a long time. Dang....Irma is really something out there. Hope everyone down there is safe!

[Minny_Weather]

Gee, I wonder if this station in Barbuda was in the eye or not?

[Tom]

I'm hearing parts of IA got down into the upper 30's this morning.  How low did you get James?

[james1976]

[james1976]

Irma now 180mph and 921 pressure

[Tom]

JMA weeklies are in today and they continue to suggest a cooler theme in the East...of note, the JMA is now seeing a big signal of a Greenland Block Week 3 & 4 as does the CFSv2.  We are seeing some hints of blocking next month near Greenland.

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

We are seeing some hints of blocking next month near Greenland.

 

Northern LES belts better get those leafs raked up quickly or they'll be buried for the winter. That was always a problem at my place, and the thick leafs killed what bit of lawn I struggled to maintain up in the forest. Man, Oct of '95 inland was non-stop LES squalls - so many days commuting home in them. It was at least a full month early that year. By November, it was full-on winter, with a bliz on 11/11 Vet's Day at my place a few miles from GT Bay. I miss legit bliz conditions - there I said it

[jaster220]

These upper level lows over/near Georgian Bay are in a perfect position for LES in the winter. Most of SWMI will do well in the cold season with that scenario.

 

 

 

For autumn ofc, you won't get the rain to move inland as far due to lower winds, etc.. but nonetheless, near the shore can get hit good like this morning. In winter this would be a pounding of LES!

 

 

[Tom]

I found this on Twitter...this doesn't happen to often in Nature...

 

 

 

[james1976]

Gee, I wonder if this station in Barbuda was in the eye or not?

IMG_20170907_004314.jpg

Thats wicked!

[jaster220]

I found this on Twitter...this doesn't happen to often in Nature...

 

 

 

 

Especially the SAME 3 letters, I, J, K   What's the odds???

[Niko]

Sunny, chilly, crisp morning.

[Niko]

All hell is breaking loose down in FL. from evacuees. Preparations underway!!!

[Niko]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/114654_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Niko]

My local forecaster last night said that SEMI next week might be feeling the remnants of Irma with lots of rain and wind and then potentially eastward. We will see about that.

[Minny_Weather]

Chilly here with yet another night in the lower 40s. Going to get to 80 here today. Goodbye first taste of Fall!

[Tom]

Chilly here with yet another night in the lower 40s. Going to get to 80 here today. Goodbye first taste of Fall!

For you guys out there, I think the pattern going forward is going to have big swings back and forth for the remainder of the month.

[St Paul Storm]

Hurricane Watches just posted for S FL. Water temp at South Beach is 88F. Although winds are down to 175 mph currently, there's little reason to believe any major decreases in intensity will occur before it hits.

 

I'll take my 'boring' Midwest weather any day of the week over the possibility of having to go through a hurricane.

[Niko]

Hurricane Watches just posted for S FL. Water temp at South Beach is 88F. Although winds are down to 175 mph currently, there's little reason to believe any major decreases in intensity will occur before it hits.

 

I'll take my 'boring' Midwest weather any day of the week over the possibility of having to go through a hurricane.

I'll sign for that as well.

[Minny_Weather]

Hurricane Watches just posted for S FL. Water temp at South Beach is 88F. Although winds are down to 175 mph currently, there's little reason to believe any major decreases in intensity will occur before it hits.

 

I'll take my 'boring' Midwest weather any day of the week over the possibility of having to go through a hurricane.

I've been through 2 hurricanes (Rita & Ike) and missed a third by 4 days (Harvey). It's not fun having no power for 2 weeks.

[Niko]

The cone from NHC is shifting slightly to the east with every update so far.

[jaster220]

Irma, Irma, Irma...why u picking on poor little Miami? How many more records can you put on your list??

 

 

 

 

My local forecaster last night said that SEMI next week might be feeling the remnants of Irma with lots of rain and wind and then potentially eastward. We will see about that.

The cone from NHC is shifting slightly to the east with every update so far.

 

Dude, you're "in the (remnant) cone"??   You better hope Irma's calmed way down before she visits yby

[jaster220]

I've been through 2 hurricanes (Rita & Ike) and missed a third by 4 days (Harvey). It's not fun having no power for 2 weeks.

 

Had twisters followed by ice storm in 2 yrs, both lost power for 2-3 days, and that was bad enough!

[Niko]

Irma, Irma, Irma...why u picking on poor little Miami? How many more records can you put on your list??

 

20170907 Irma strongest the longest!.PNG

 

 

 

Dude, you're "in the (remnant) cone"??   You better hope Irma's calmed way down before she visits yby

Irma knows better than to mess with my property!! She can only rain a little bit, just enough to break the dryness.

[Niko]

Man, it feels like Mid October out there. Mean looking clouds in between some blue skies hidden in there, temps in the low 60s, along with a chilly breeze blowing. Heck, I am ready to go buy a pumpkin.

[Tom]

Man, it feels like Mid October out there. Mean looking clouds in between some blue skies hidden in there, temps in the low 60s, along with a chilly breeze blowing. Heck, I am ready to go buy a pumpkin.

I know that feeling!  This morning I noticed a few yards in the neighborhood starting to collect freshly fallen leaves.  I think the leaves changes are bit earlier than 2013???

[james1976]

[Tom]

Interesting stat for the opening week of Sept:

 

 

 

The unseasonably cool weather during the 1st week of Sept. has broken or tied nearly 300 daily low temperature records across the #Midwest.

 

[Tom]

12z GFS starting to hone in on a more active weather pattern as we near the middle of the month.  Fits the pattern.  Def looking forward to seeing more action packed weather around these parts.

[Niko]

I know that feeling!  This morning I noticed a few yards in the neighborhood starting to collect freshly fallen leaves.  I think the leaves changes are bit earlier than 2013?

To me the change in leaves occurred in late August, so the same or a tad earlier.

 

Need I say Hello 13-14".

[Niko]

12z Euro is further west and makes landfall over south central or possibly SW FL and 12z GFS shifts a tick west as well.

[Niko]

Hurricane Jose a Cat2 now. Hopefully, he is no threat to land, although, Bermuda needs to keep an eye on him.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro is further west and makes landfall over south central or possibly SW FL and 12z GFS shifts a tick west as well.

It's almost beyond words how much that tick west means for Miami and Ft Lauderdale on the GFS. They escaped with their lives on Matthew. Let's hope their luck continues with Irma. 12z HWRF is west as well. Landfall around Ft Lauderdale and hugs the entire coast until it reaches the FL/GA line. Wow.

 

So much attention is being given to the south and east coast of FL. If the Euro pans out, Tampa/Clearwater is in trouble. Truly amazing how many people are under the gun.

[St Paul Storm]

Hurricane Jose a Cat2 now. Hopefully, he is no threat to land, although, Bermuda needs to keep an eye on him.

Looks like Jose loses its steering component and circles around for a bit. These storms are crazy. I wonder what the upwelling of cooler waters Irma might have on Jose.