September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

That's a nice looking boat. A shame it's going to be destroyed.

 

http://keywestharborside.com/livecam.cfm

[snow_wizard]

That's a nice looking boat. A shame it's going to be destroyed.

 

http://keywestharborside.com/livecam.cfm

 

I wonder what kind of images that camera will capture before it goes down.  I have a feeling there are going to be some jaw dropping videos from this.

[Jesse]

The GFS is slightly further east than the 18z.  Very bad track.

 

Too bad. We just can't seem to get a direct hit from a trough lately.

[Phil]

I wonder what kind of images that camera will capture before it goes down. I have a feeling there are going to be some jaw dropping videos from this.

Probably something like the last 3 minutes of this recording when Irma struck St. Bart's/Barbuda.

 

Winds were ~ 170mph during the final 2 minutes of this..fast forward to the end and it's pretty gnarly:

 

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

[stuffradio]

The 00Z GFS continues to be more below normal in temps than above normal, continuing the trend from earlier today. Not sure why people are still so sad. Here's an example of tomorrow.

 

[snow_wizard]

Too bad. We just can't seem to get a direct hit from a trough lately.

 

 

I was talking about Irma.  I wasn't very clear on that.

[snow_wizard]

The 00Z GFS continues to be more below normal in temps than above normal, continuing the trend from earlier today. Not sure why people are still so sad. Here's an example of tomorrow.

 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_5.png

 

I agree.  The rest of the month looks decent overall....at least for the time being.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting to note the strongest land falling hurricane in the US was the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in Florida.  Top 1 minute wind speed was 185.  Many of the 10 strongest events were pre 1950.  Keep that in mind when Al Gore and friends try to tell you Irma is from global warming.

 

As an aside years with very strong hurricane strikes in Florida have a history of being in years that lead to interesting winters in the NW.  Not saying it means anything, but interesting none the less.

[Jesse]

Pretty interesting to note the strongest land falling hurricane in the US was the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in Florida. Top 1 minute wind speed was 185. Many of the 10 strongest events were pre 1950. Keep that in mind when Al Gore and friends try to tell you Irma is from global warming.

 

As an aside years with very strong hurricane strikes in Florida have a history of being in years that lead to interesting winters in the NW. Not saying it means anything, but interesting none the less.

How do number of casualties correlate with good winters? Something tells me we'll like what we see!!

[snow_wizard]

Probably something like the last 3 minutes of this recording when Irma struck St. Bart's/Barbuda.

 

Winds were ~ 170mph during the final 2 minutes of this..fast forward to the end and it's pretty gnarly:

 

http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html

 

Jaw officially on the ground.  Wow!

 

That is one freeking strong tree!

[snow_wizard]

How do number of casualties correlate with good winters? Something tells me we'll like what we see!!

 

I doubt that enters into it.  I'm just saying the correlation is excellent...not perfect but excellent.  If you look at it in the sense the conditions needed to make an extreme event happen in Florida may be related to the conditions needed for a good winter here it seems possible.  Just throwing it out there.

[Phil]

2AM: Irma still not giving a s**t about Cuba, holds as a 160mph Category 5 with an expanding windfield.

 

Has to weaken at some point, I would think..

[BLI snowman]

2AM: Irma still not giving a s**t about Cuba, holds as a 160mph Category 5 with an expanding windfield.

 

Has to weaken at some point, I would think..

Eye is looking pretty ragged. I would think it's down to 140mph or so in another 12 hours.

[seattleweatherguy]

The 00Z GFS continues to be more below normal in temps than above normal, continuing the trend from earlier today. Not sure why people are still so sad. Here's an example of tomorrow.

 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_5.png

Cold day tommrow high of 61 according to the app

[snow_wizard]

2 different troughs bring thicknesses into the 540s over Seattle on the latest GFS.  Fall is coming!

[Phil]

Eye is looking pretty ragged. I would think it's down to 140mph or so in another 12 hours.

It definitely does. The core itself has shrunk by about 15 miles, which could explain the increase in winds, despite the downsloping/ragged appearance.

[Phil]

Extrapolating from the pressure fields, I think Irma has lost at least a good 20mph. Will probably have to weaken below 125mph to avoid a Category 5 at landfall, though. Those SSTs are pure jet fuel.

[wx_statman]

Irma is definitely looking like Charley '04 now. Cat 4 into SW Florida. 

[wx_statman]

Looks like the 65 is official. 4th straight minimum above previous monthly record @ PDX. 

[Tenochtitlan]

Irma is definitely looking like Charley '04 now. Cat 4 into SW Florida. 

Way bigger in size than Charlie though, and a bigger threat to the Tampa area. A big cat-4 tracking just west of Tampa is almost a worst-case scenario and the city hasn't seen anything like it since 1921. (not that it's certain it'll take that track, but it could.)

[wx_statman]

Way bigger in size than Charlie though, and a bigger threat to the Tampa area. A big cat-4 tracking just west of Tampa is almost a worst-case scenario and the city hasn't seen anything like it since 1921. (not that it's certain it'll take that track, but it could.)

 

I agree. A Cat 4 pushing storm surge into Tampa Bay would definitely be a worse scenario than Charley. 

[Tenochtitlan]

I agree. A Cat 4 pushing storm surge into Tampa Bay would definitely be a worse scenario than Charley. 

Yeah, I have a bad feeling about this one. Even though Irma is a little degraded from land interaction with Cuba, she should strengthen quite a bit once over the Florida Straits. She could be one of the most impactful storms to hit Florida in history. Florida's population has increased a lot over recent years and there are millions of people there who have never experienced a serious hurricane...I hope that all the recent development in places like Tampa is well-built enough to withstand the winds.

[Phil]

Irma down slightly to 155mph. I'm surprised it's only lost 5mph in the 12hrs it's been riding the Cuban coast. Question is, what happens after the sun rises and we approach diurnal minimum?

 

Irma needs to weaken below 135mph within the next 18hrs to have any chance of landfalling in FL with winds under 150mph.

[Geos]

Irma down slightly to 155mph. I'm surprised it's only lost 5mph in the 12hrs it's been riding the Cuban coast. Question is, what happens after the sun rises and we approach diurnal minimum?

 

Irma needs to weaken below 135mph within the next 18hrs to have any chance of landfalling in FL with winds under 150mph.

 

Down to 130 mph this morning. Irma made landfall as a cat 5 with 160 mph winds. The northern coast of Cuba must be devastated. 

 

 

Good news for southern FL.

[Jesse]

Looks like many of the fire areas will get some needed rainfall today.

[TT-SEA]

The smoke is finally gone completely here.   Yesterday it looked really gunky under the marine layer... which was obviously trapped smoke.   

 

This morning its cloudy but its all clear below the clouds.   I can make out the fine details on Mt Si again... the first time in 6 days.

 

[Guest happ]

It is fortuitous that both the PacificNW and southern California should benefit nicely from the rain effects on fire burn areas this weekend.   

[Phil]

Down to 130 mph this morning. Irma made landfall as a cat 5 with 160 mph winds. The northern coast of Cuba must be devastated.

 

Good news for southern FL.

Now down to 125mph as of the 11AM advisory. Downsloping off the terrain certainly helped out as the system underwent another ERC.

 

I don't think it will matter much in the end, given the westward trend in track (though maybe instead of an 150mph+ landfall we see a 140mph landfall).

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone

[Phil]

This does kind of remind me of Charley, which (IIRC) weakened to a category 2 after interaction w/ Cuba, then blew back up into a category 4 once over those warm waters near the FL Straits.

 

Seems that's the route NHC is taking.

[Guest happ]

Senator Rubio is addressing Floridians: "don't be the guy hit in the head by a tree" flying in hurricane winds since some people on the eastern side of the peninsula are taking down shutters   

[Phil]

Dewey ended up being on the money. I hope people aren't letting their guards down in FL, or there will be a ton of regret.

 

Just seems odd to me the experts would be so reactive to different aspects of the storm. They didn't account for the potential strengthening on approach of landfall until late today despite nearly every model indicating some manner of intensification just offshore. Now they seem to be discounting any potential weakening from a Cuba landfall. I can see a lot of Floridians, a place with an inordinately large moron population, seeing updates about a weakening storm early tomorrow and throwing caution to the wind.

[TT-SEA]

Let's hope your take here is better than your Jose call.

 

It only loses 25mph/^20mb on the 12z ECMWF due to favorable upper level conditions. I think a weakening to 130mph or so is reasonable. Not sure why NHC wants to keep it at 155mph.

 

 

The eye of Jose is passing well north of Barbuda this morning on a path that will miss all of the islands and head farther out into the open Atlantic.

[Madtown]

Heard up to 20cm Of snow possible Thurs night in the Canadian rockies!

[Phil]

The eye of Jose is passing well north of Barbuda this morning on a path that will miss all of the islands and head farther out into the open Atlantic.

I was (jokingly) referencing your call for significant weakening two nights ago. Jose might end up pulling a Jeanne '05 as steering currents collapse following Irma's phasing with that ULL.

[TT-SEA]

I was (jokingly) referencing your call for significant weakening two nights ago. Jose might end up pulling a Jeanne '05 as steering currents collapse following Irma's phasing with that ULL.

 

I was referring to the media hype that another massive hurricane was going to follow the same path and crush the devastated areas again.   I said that was not going to happen.   I know nothing about it curving back around later... but the media had no basis for making that claim about the current track of Jose.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Irma is starting the turn to the north.  

[Jesse]

Heard up to 20cm Of snow possible Thurs night in the Canadian rockies!

Must be the far outer bands of the hurricane.

[Phil]

Looks like Irma is starting the turn to the north.

Yeah, pressures dropping too. She's waking up after her sabbatical in Cuba.

 

Probably won't see winds spike until later this afternoon/evening though.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-10

[snow_wizard]

Jesse has to like this!  Looks like the big atmospheric flip in the tropics is translating to the mid latitudes.

 

 

 

[Phil]

Jesse has to like this! Looks like the big atmospheric flip in the tropics is translating to the mid latitudes.

Was going to say. I bet he's doing the Macarena after seeing the last two GEFS runs.