September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

Might be best to avoid bringing politics into natural disasters like this. It's a bit distasteful IMO.

He wasn't the first...

[Phil]

Looks like WNW.

Yeah, latest fix is W/NW.

 

What happens after sunset/during diurnal maximum is key. If convection fires close to the center, then rapid-intensification and core contraction is very possible. If it fires in the outer eyewall or farther away from the center, then the windfield will expand and the pressure will drop but max winds might not increase much.

[Phil]

Hmm..extrapolated pressure down to 933mb already, which is a drop of 9mb in 2hrs. Should it continue, these models showing drops of 20-30mb over 6hrs might not be too far off.

[TT-SEA]

Filtered sun and 70 here... better than I expected today.

[stuffradio]

It's still raining and 57F here. My temperature actually dropped. Max temp at 59 so far today. I'm at at least .48" of rain so far today.

[ShawniganLake]

Filtered sun and 70 here... better than I expected today.

Over a .25" of rain and still 56 here. We did need the rain though.

 

Hopefully the interior gets some too. We are still evacuated from our cabin up there. It's not long until freezing becomes a concern as we haven't winterized it.

[Phil]

Looks like ~ 60-70mph now in Marathon Key.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&noapp=1&v=gaErEed7UPI

[Deweydog]

90 today?

[stuffradio]

90 today?

More like 100!

[wx_statman]

90 today?

 

Bit of a downslope assist today maybe? 79 with 11C up above...

[Guest happ]

Filtered sun and 70 here... better than I expected today.

 

Gee Tim, your comments remind me of Mr Marine Layer who you mock for being concerned with sunshine rather than hurricane disasters in Texas/ Florida   

[Deweydog]

Bit of a downslope assist today maybe? 79 with 11C up above...

Southerly flow ahead of the "front." A perfect storm.

[epiceast]

They are comparing Irma to Charley in 2004. And we all know how awesome the winter of 2004-05 was here. The Summit at Snoqualmie was opened for maybe 2 weeks and all season pass holders got free passes for the next season. We built our house over that winter and I remember many warm, sunny days that winter monitoring the progress. It wae delightful.

Needs more     

[wx_statman]

Southerly flow ahead of the "front." A perfect storm.

 

Yeah, I just noticed the gusty SW winds at UAO and SLE. It's interesting because PDX had the ENE @ 9 obs earlier...must have been a local wind variation.

[wx_statman]

79/63 at PDX today under a "cool" airmass. 

 

This month is on fire.

[TT-SEA]

Gee Tim, your comments remind me of Mr Marine Layer who you mock for being concerned with sunshine rather than hurricane disasters in Texas/ Florida

No.

[TT-SEA]

Front is over SEA now... streak ends today.

[stuffradio]

It's 55F here now and about .5" of rain.

[TT-SEA]

Almost looks like Irma is going to keep chugging west and miss Florida.   

 

That would be awesome for Florida and a massive blow to the forecasting community.  

[Deweydog]

Almost looks like Irma is going to keep chugging west and miss Florida.

 

That would be awesome for Florida and a massive blow to the forecasting community.

I think they've done a pretty piss poor job so far. Anyone with internet access could have done as good a job or better. They seemed ignorant to the land interaction with Cuba and inevitable weakening. They also seemed to ignore the progged strengthening leading up to landfall until late yesterday.

[Phil]

Almost looks like Irma is going to keep chugging west and miss Florida.

 

That would be awesome for Florida and a massive blow to the forecasting community.

It can't keep chugging west. There's a huge ULL dropping into the northern Gulf.

[Jesse]

79/63 at PDX today under a "cool" airmass.

 

This month is on fire.

Probably more like 80-81.

 

Shouldn't come as much of a surprise. We've basically been stuck in a subtropical airmass the last 4-5 days. Hopefully tonight's front can clear out the humid low level gunk.

[liquidsnow]

Irma still tracking WNW...It appears as if it will miss Florida!

[Phil]

Concentric eyewalls holding for now. Until these two consolidate, winds will be slow to increase despite pressure falls.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/80AD3A6A-28D4-4654-AB40-24F659502E83_zpsxclq8pg0.png

[Phil]

Irma still tracking WNW...It appears as if it will miss Florida!

The turn N/NW has consistently been modeled to occur between 23z and 03z, by both the 12z EPS and the majority of the higher resolution/mesoscale guidance. I would be surprised if it had already occurred. I'm thinking it'll start between 8-9pm.

[WeatherArchive]

9 inches of rain and highs in the 50's and 60's all month didn't exactly scream summer to me....

But nights were pretty warm.  Nothing (bone) chilly about it.  Hardly any in the way of clear chilly/cold nights.

[WeatherArchive]

I agree.  It just kills me they don't get called out on this stuff though.

But if a Republican (that isn't a Rhino) is caught filing the wrong tax form or something minor that won't kill the earth get's treated like they just ran over a cat.

[wx_statman]

Probably more like 80-81.

 

Shouldn't come as much of a surprise. We've basically been stuck in a subtropical airmass the last 4-5 days. Hopefully tonight's front can clear out the humid low level gunk.

 

Easy call to make, considering they were already at 80 on the 3:20 intermediary. 

 

I was just showing the spread at the time I made my post.  

[TT-SEA]

Got the lawn mowed... started out with filtered sunshine and warmth but ended up being drenched.   The clouds have steadily lowered and now its actually raining pretty good.

 

I was sweating during the first hour... and I greatly preferred that to the mess that I finished up in out there with the mower getting clogged and being soaking wet from rain.  

[Deweydog]

Got the lawn mowed... started out with filtered sunshine and warmth but ended up being drenched. The clouds have steadily lowered and now its actually raining pretty good.

 

I was sweating during the first hour... and I greatly preferred that to the mess that I finished up in out there with the mower getting clogged and being soaking wet from rain.

You're dumb.

[TT-SEA]

You're dumb.

 

I know.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Irma has ground to halt now.

[TT-SEA]

Looks gorgeous in Eugene.  Visibility is awesome and the sun is shining.   Huge improvement over the smoky mess last week for the Ducks game.

[TT-SEA]

SEA streak is officially over... 68 for the high today.   

 

72 consecutive days at or above 70.  

[Phil]

Looks like Irma has ground to halt now.

Yeah, the pull N/NW is beginning now. Irma's central pressures are way down (~930mb), but winds are still just 120mph. For context, last night she was 931mb with 160mph winds.

 

Once the concentric eyewalls consolidate, winds are going to respond in a hurry. A 930mb central pressure is something you'd expect to see in a 150mph storm, not a 120mph one.

[wx_statman]

Pretty interesting two-day heatwave ended today in 1963, in which the PDX-Vancouver corridor appears to have been strangely avoided. PDX only managed 89-89 on the 8th & 9th (with 87-88 at Vancouver), but surrounding readings were much more impressive: 98-98 at Bonneville Dam, 98-94 at Hillsboro, and 96-95 at Salem.

 

Kind of a head-scratcher since winds were out of the west on both days. Strong east winds would have been the obvious culprit to suppress maximums in September, but this was not the case.

[TT-SEA]

HRRR shows a massive eye and an asymmetrical shape tomorrow morning.   Does not look impressive here at all. 

 

[Deweydog]

HRRR shows a massive eye and an asymmetrical shape tomorrow morning. Does not look impressive here at all.

 

Should landfall as a strong TD.

[TT-SEA]

Should landfall as a strong TD.

 

If that.  

[Front Ranger]

18z is an impressively cool run for the PNW from day 4 on.