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September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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Not too much longer until we're looking at the CMC snow output now!

NH snowcover extent has started the season above average by almost +2SDs, thanks to a relatively cloudy, chilly summer in the high latitudes.

 

nh_sce.png

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Starting off with a refreshing 50* here this morning. Clear as can be. Longer night should mean more 40s at night soon.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.0", 01/12

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's September, which means PNW people who are not accustomed to hot, sunny weather will soon get the endless cloudy, drizzly, or rainy days they have all been longing for. Lots to look forward to.

 

Funny how a person in Phoenix thinks 90 is cool and a person in Minneapolis thinks 50 degrees is shorts and sandals weather.

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It's September, which means PNW people who are not accustomed to hot, sunny weather will soon get the endless cloudy, drizzly, or rainy days they have all been longing for. Lots to look forward to.

 

Funny how a person in Phoenix thinks 90 is cool and a person in Minneapolis thinks 50 degrees is shorts and sandals weather.

 

Lots of shorts and sandals break out here when it reaches the mid 40's come spring time even with snow still on the ground. It's all relative.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Hard to see how this month will not end up being record warmest at PDX. Perfect timing on the start of the sustained heat once again.

 

No guarantee it will be as sustained as the first 10 days of August. Odds are, it won't. Latest GFS trends don't think so.

 

Even with a few days to start the month putting up huge anomalies, there's plenty of time for things to change. Sep 1988 ended up barely above normal. Sep 1944 was quite warm, but not even as warm as the previous September and well short of the record today.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Record warmest September at PDX and record coldest in Bozeman, right?

 

I wish... It was a hot end of the month here and this weekend it continues before cooling off somewhat. I still have plenty of family in Portland so I feel for you guys while also feeling lucky that we'll get a cool NW flow starting Monday.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Big trough as well... within 10 days.

 

 

About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10.

 

There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS.

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No guarantee it will be as sustained as the first 10 days of August. Odds are, it won't. Latest GFS trends don't think so.

 

Even with a few days to start the month putting up huge anomalies, there's plenty of time for things to change. Sep 1988 ended up barely above normal. Sep 1944 was quite warm, but not even as warm as the previous September and well short of the record today.

 

Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August.

 

Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August.

 

Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".

You make some points. But this is all pretty preliminary. It's the 1st. Maybe we can be having this discussion in a couple weeks but right now it comes off a little sensationalistic.

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CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Yeah obviously it's way early but average temps have dropped 3-4º on both ends since early August so they'll likely see even larger departures than in early August.

 

Also the ECMWF EPS has been consistent in showing sustained warmth through mid month. Likely a big drop off by then but will it be enough to overcome beating another record warm month? I have my money on "no".

 

But they'll also probably see overall temps 3-4 degrees colder, at least the hottest days.

 

I would put money against a record month (even with PDX putting up record months much easier thanks in part to UHI increase). Let's call Vegas.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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You make some points. But this is all pretty preliminary. It's the 1st. Maybe we can be having this discussion in a couple weeks but right now it comes off a little sensationalistic.

 

Of course it's preliminary... I wasn't aware that long range forecasts were now considered "sensationalism". Lots of people were having discussions of a record warm August early in the month as well so it's not like it's not unreasonable to talk about on the 1st when clearly the models support it through the first half of the month. 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10.

 

There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS.

 

12Z GEM completely agrees with the GFS:

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_38.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GEM completely agrees with the GFS:

 

gem_z500_mslp_namer_38.png

Thank the Lord. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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But they'll also probably see overall temps 3-4 degrees colder, at least the hottest days.

 

I would put money against a record month (even with PDX putting up record months much easier thanks in part to UHI increase). Let's call Vegas.

 

I'll settle for circling back to this page on the 30th!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Of course it's preliminary... I wasn't aware that long range forecasts were now considered "sensationalism". Lots of people were having discussions of a record warm August early in the month as well so it's not like it's not unreasonable to talk about on the 1st when clearly the models support it through the first half of the month.

Sorry, not trying to go after you. Not all models support the warmth continuing for the entire first half of the month. Right now they seem to be in two camps. That's important to consider.

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Sorry, not trying to go after you. Not all models support the warmth continuing for the entire first half of the month. Right now they seem to be in two camps. That's important to consider.

 

Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53)

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 60.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 3.0º

Coldest low: -12.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53)

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png

 

I can handle upper 70s. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Yeah absolutely. You know as well as I that betting against the ECMWF/EPS is always going to be against the odds though. EPS shows mainly well above average temps over the next 15 days at PDX. (Average temps by Sept 15th is 76/53)

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-01 at 11.06.48 AM.png

That actually doesn't look as bad as I thought it would.

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CFS now saying moderate Nina. Some members showing a very strong Nina. Interesting no one is talking about this. 

 

I noticed that too. That definitely wasn't in the cards earlier this year. Cold pool off the coast...

 

cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_5.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.0", 01/12

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Euro's blinked next week.

It did. Still seems to want to keep the ridge nearby a lot longer than the GFS or Canadian, though. Struggling with how to phase the low down off the California coast with the offshore trough as the pattern starts to progress. That sort of setup is a classic Euro blind spot in the long range.

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Look out South Carolina and Georgia!

Parade of aquatic monsters.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zpssbn9h3hm.png

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Parade of aquatic monsters.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zpssbn9h3hm.png

 

Charleston!   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF control run shows the trough next weekend as well... then returns to warm ridging fairly quickly.

 

12Z EPS is much weaker with the trough and we just stay in flat ridging for the rest of the run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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95/45 so far at RDM today. Nice 50 degree swing there.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.

Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003.

 

We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much.

 

It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon.

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