September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country...

 

[TT-SEA]

I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show.   

[Kayla]

I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show.   

 

We're well past the "E's" this season... It's Irma. 

[Jbolin]

We're well past the "E's" this season... It's Irma. 

In all "fairness" (E) and (I) are very close to each other

[Kayla]

12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday.

 

Sat - 97

Sun - 96

Mon - 104

Tue - 108

Wed - 97

[Kayla]

In all "fairness" (E) and (I) are very close to each other

 

Yet (I) always follows (H).

[crf450ish]

I think Texas has a couple more days in the national spotlight and then Erma will steal the show.   

*Irma 

[crf450ish]

The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country...

 

Wheres the model depicting the the weakening ridge out in the Atlantic? In order for Irma to go that far north up the Eastern seaboard, that Atlantic ridge is going to have to decay quite a bit, isn't it?

[stuffradio]

The PDO flipped negative last month according to NOAA.

[Phil]

Thing is, that trough/ULL has trended NE on most guidance, which changes the orientation of the phase enough that it might send the storm out to sea.

 

The 12z GFS is much farther NE with the trough, perhaps sufficiently enough to boot the storm out. We'll see.

Still landfalls on 12z, but have to watch that trough regardless.

[TT-SEA]

Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here.

[stuffradio]

Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here.

[Jesse]

12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday.

 

Today - 96

Sat - 97

Sun - 96

Mon - 102

Tue - 108

Wed - 98

Thinking this will probably bust low.

[Kayla]

Thinking this will probably bust low.

 

Yeah at second look that 96 on Sunday does seem a little low.

[Front Ranger]

No landfall for Irma on 12z Euro.

[Front Ranger]

Consensus growing for a major trough in a week here.

 

The possibility is growing, but given the look of both the EPS and GFS ensemble mean, I wouldn't say consensus is there yet. Neither show a major trough, just near normal heights from day 6 on.

[wx_statman]

12z GFS is absurd. 850mb temps top out at 27º on Tuesday.

 

Sat - 97

Sun - 96

Mon - 104

Tue - 108

Wed - 97

 

Where are you seeing those numbers? I'm seeing 27.4 with an extracted maximum of 103 on Tuesday. 

[James Jones]

100 not looking likely.

[wx_statman]

Smoke has moved into Eugene.

[wx_statman]

100 not looking likely.

 

It hasn't looked likely for a few days.

[wx_statman]

8/31/1987 says we can still hit 102 at this time of year without surface offshore flow...then again, we're running 5 degrees behind 8/31/1987 today. 

[TT-SEA]

Smoke has moved into Eugene.

 

Big time.  

 

Our friend Andrew Mork posted this on facebook from Eugene...

 

 

Severe clear here... no hint of any haze.    But we could see the very top of the smoke plume near Ellensburg coming back from Issaquah on I-90 just now.

 

[wx_statman]

92 at HIO and KLS. Both might hit 100 today.

[wx_statman]

Interestingly, this afternoon's sounding over SLE already showed 24.8C and 595dm heights overhead. Both were higher than modeled for today. Maybe tomorrow will continue the trend...won't take much of a tweak upward to push us into the 98 degree range. Even today, MMV hit 97 and HIO 96.

 

PDX definitely acting like it wants to reach 98...93 @ 3:00 puts us +6 on yesterday, and -4 on 8/31/1987. 

[wx_statman]

Wow, 114 at Paso Robles Airport right now. Sitting within 1F of the all-time record. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KPRB&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[Geos]

The 06Z GFS brings Erma into the most populated area of the country...

 

 

D**n.... Sandy all over again...?

[Geos]

Hit 90 here. 

You can the smoke/haze in the air in Thorp.

 

 

Update on Jolly Mt. Fire.

 

http://www.yakimaherald.com/news/local/jolly-mountain-fire-threatens-homes-unhealthy-levels-of-smoke-hit/article_18b774b2-8ff9-11e7-b9a3-37d1ebacbc8d.html

[wx_statman]

92 at HIO and KLS. Both might hit 100 today.

 

Well, I was right about one of them. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=KHIO&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[WeatherArchive]

d**n.... Sandy all over again...?

That would be insane!  NYC is not prepared for hurricanes like Florida is.  It's like NYC having a tornado which you won't find a tornado shelter there.

 

  It's been nice here in the mornings.  The temps struggled to get much below 70F until about 2am then tumbled to 54F like a cold front came thru.   It was a bit on the nippy side.  

[Phil]

That would be insane! It's been nice in the mornings. The temps struggled to get much below 70F until about 2am then tumbled to 54F like a cold front came thru. It was a bit on the nippy side.

This is so stressful for me. I don't know whether to prepare for 100mph winds or sunny skies.

[Geos]

That would be insane!  NYC is not prepared for hurricanes like Florida is.  It's like NYC having a tornado which you won't find a tornado shelter there.

 

  It's been nice here in the mornings.  The temps struggled to get much below 70F until about 2am then tumbled to 54F like a cold front came thru.   It was a bit on the nippy side.  

 

Yeah the big issue there is high winds and all those windows in the buildings falling down to the ground. That would be insane if that solution pans out.

[Phil]

OMG..the 18z HWRF takes Irma to 225mph at 874mb. This model nailed Harvey, FWIW, but color me skeptical of this particular solution.

 

If it verifies, though, it'd would be the strongest storm observed in the satellite era to this point.

[Deweydog]

OMG..the 18z HWRF takes Irma to 225mph at 874mb. This model nailed Harvey, FWIW, but color me skeptical of this particular solution.

 

If it verifies, though, it'd would be the strongest storm observed in the satellite era to this point.

Al Gore warned us. Twice now.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's time to start posting on here again.  Looks like we might threaten the hottest temps ever recorded in the month of September early next week and then a major cool down to normal or even below by next weekend.  The ECMWF has a decent sized area of 0 to +4 850s over Western WA at day 8 or so.  Nice to see the models have reverted to cool ENSO for this winter.

 

In other news Irma sure looks ominous for the East Coast.

[Phil]

Looks like it's time to start posting on here again. Looks like we might threaten the hottest temps ever recorded in the month of September early next week and then a major cool down to normal or even below by next weekend. The ECMWF has a decent sized area of 0 to +4 850s over Western WA at day 8 or so. Nice to see the models have reverted to cool ENSO for this winter.

 

In other news Irma sure looks ominous for the East Coast.

Jim!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Jim!!!!

 

I can hardly believe I was away for so long.  I've been super busy and have gotten bogged down in politics a bit too much.  Weather trumps all as we get into fall and winter though!

[TT-SEA]

I can hardly believe I was away for so long.  I've been super busy and have gotten bogged down in politics a bit too much.  Weather trumps all as we get into fall and winter though!

 

Bogged down in politics?    You mean watching TV and InfoWars with the batshit crazy Alex Jones?    

 

It was a goldilocks summer up here... except for the first part of August.   July was absolute perfection from start to finish.  

[Kayla]

Where are you seeing those numbers? I'm seeing 27.4 with an extracted maximum of 103 on Tuesday. 

 

WxBell images. Can't access the 12z meteogram now but the 18z is still just as crazy. Surprisingly it verified on the low side today.

 

[Deweydog]

Bogged down in politics? You mean watching TV and InfoWars with the batshit crazy Alex Jones?

 

It was a goldilocks summer up here... except for the first part of August. July was absolute perfection from start to finish.

And heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go...

[TT-SEA]

And heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go...

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees

 

Actually he brought up politics.