September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

It's been pretty consistent on the Thursday-Friday timeframe being wet at least. Not sure what the Euro precip maps have shown.

 

I was planning to hike Eagle Creek soon, once the weather cools down.

I haven't been able to really get a read on how much of the trail corridor proper has been burned. Likely it won't be the same for the rest of our lifetimes though. That was always such a lush spot.

[wx_statman]

I wonder if the smoke had an affect on boundary layer temps overnight? 850 sounding came in at just 21.6C @ SLE this morning, which was actually lower than at 841hpa (22.0C) and almost identical to the 20.8C observed at 788hpa (over 2,000 feet higher). The 12Z sounding yesterday was 25.8C, and on 9/2/1988 was 26.0C. I'm aware that the nighttime boundary layer is more sensitive to aerosols than the daytime boundary layer, so it makes me wonder. Also makes me think the 850's will recover this afternoon for that reason.

[wx_statman]

6z NAM going with 28.3C @ 850 tonight. 

[wx_statman]

Going to Camp Dakota out past Scotts Mills. Going to be a hot, smoky time. 

[Jesse]

Going to Camp Dakota out past Scotts Mills. Going to be a hot, smoky time. 

 

String some steaks up in a tree and make jerky!

[wx_statman]

String some steaks up in a tree and make jerky!

 

I don't know what that means, but maybe I'll find out??

[Jesse]

I don't know what that means, but maybe I'll find out??

It will be smoky and hot outside. Not unlike a jerky smoker.

[Front Ranger]

And running a -2 departure this morning. Will be an uphill battle to 100 today. Smoke already a factor?

 

NWS seems to think so. Going with 98 for a high today, 97 tomorrow.

 

Then again, they're also going with a low of 70 tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

We'll see. Some of the thickest I've seen this year so far at the moment. And there have been a lot of smoky days this year.

 

Checking web cams and it actually looks clear just to your northwest... Kelso and Longview don't have much smoke at all but Vancouver looks sort of nasty.

[Jesse]

NWS seems to think so. Going with 98 for a high today, 97 tomorrow.

 

Then again, they're also going with a low of 70 tonight.

That's the point forecast for Rob's house.

[Front Ranger]

CMC is noticeably cooler with the brief trough later this week.

[BLI snowman]

Checking web cams and it actually looks clear just to your northwest... Kelso and Longview don't have much smoke at all but Vancouver looks sort of nasty.

 

Visible loop show it creeping NNW steadily this morning so far, day started clear here and has turned pretty smoky.

[wx_statman]

It will be smoky and hot outside. Not unlike a jerky smoker.

Ah, in that case yeah.

[Geos]

Some smoke aloft this morning. I suspect it'll probably get worse as the day goes on.

[Jesse]

PDX now running -3 compared to yesterday. Also ended up hitting 62 this morning.

[Phil]

Wouldn't it be something if SEA/PDX finished September with a higher average temperature than DCA? Has that even happened before?

 

The final third of September into October looks increasingly cool/wet, though, as the GOA trough/+EPO gets going.

[BLI snowman]

Wouldn't it be something if SEA/PDX finished September with a higher average temperature than DCA? Has that even happened before?

 

The final third of September into October looks increasingly cool/wet, though, as the GOA trough/+EPO gets going.

 

Won't happen. 1963 was kinda close for PDX though, DCA was 66.47 and PDX was 65.10.

[Jesse]

Wouldn't it be something if SEA/PDX finished September with a higher average temperature than DCA? Has that even happened before?

 

The final third of September into October looks increasingly cool/wet, though, as the GOA trough/+EPO gets going.

Sounds like you are pushing back the pattern change. In line with the models.

[Geos]

Smoke is thickening up here. Running a couple degrees behind compared to yesterday at this time. 

[Phil]

Sounds like you are pushing back the pattern change. In line with the models.

No changes (yet). The final third of September is still my call.

[luminen]

85F with a 66F dew point. Yesterday was pretty humid here.

[Geos]

Smoke really visible at Snoqualmie Pass.

 

 

Smoky over Index as well.

 

[Jesse]

PDX still running -3 compared to yesterday (which "only" hit 95). Smoke is so thick they are reporting OVC on the hour. Not looking great for extreme heat fans today.

[ShawniganLake]

PDX still running -3 compared to yesterday (which "only" hit 95). Smoke is so thick they are reporting OVC on the hour. Not looking great for extreme heat fans today.

Smoke isn't much of an issue up here yet. Running +3 to 5 over yesterday around SW BC. 88F here but many stations are pushing into the low 90's at 1pm.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Running several degrees warmer than yesterday at this time up here in Victoria. Looks like yesterday made it up to 88F. There was no hint of smoke up at Sproat Lake when I came back this morning but there's a clear layer of haze looking south from here. If we're going to break records today will likely be the day, I'm not sure this city has ever seen a 90F+ high in September. The monthly record for YYJ is 88F, with the airport currently at 85F. Tomorrow looks warmer aloft but I have a feeling smoke will be more at play by then.

 

Still nothing up at Rathtrevor:

 

http://webcam.beachacresresort.com/webcam/current.jpg

[Jesse]

Seems like Western Europe is seeing an unusually cool and wet late Summer/early Fall. A good friend of mine lives in Trier, Germany, and every time I've checked the weather there it has been in the 60s or 70s with showers. Highs are expected to be in the 50s by this weekend.

 

#jealous

[TT-SEA]

Just got back home... smoke is not too bad at the surface here.   It looks strange though as the tops of the mountains are hazy... including Mt Si.   At least the low levels are clear and there is no smell of smoke.

 

[Deweydog]

Three straight at 85+ at Astoria. That's definitely a first for September.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like Western Europe is seeing an unusually cool and wet late Summer/early Fall. A good friend of mine lives in Trier, Germany, and every time I've checked the weather there it has been in the 60s or 70s with showers. Highs are expected to be in the 50s by this weekend.

 

#jealous

 

 

We got married in the little town New Trier, MN which was founded by people from Trier in the 1800s.

[stuffradio]

Seems like Western Europe is seeing an unusually cool and wet late Summer/early Fall. A good friend of mine lives in Trier, Germany, and every time I've checked the weather there it has been in the 60s or 70s with showers. Highs are expected to be in the 50s by this weekend.

 

#jealous

I was in Trier Germany last year. It's a nice place. I love the hillside orchards they have in those areas of Germany.

[Geos]

Smoke and haze keeping it in the mid 80s here.

[snow_wizard]

I was over in Liberty WA yesterday and it was pretty awful there.  Probably the driest I have ever seen it with thick dust settled over everything along with smoke, falling ash, withered vegetation, and a hellish looking red sky.  The dust on the roads was so bad you had to wait for about a minute to exit the car to not become overwhelmed by a cloud of dust.

 

No question extremes beget extremes.  Lets hope this winter gives us the extremes we want. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the huge pattern shift has been watered down a bit for later in the week, but it still drops to near normal.  Looks like a brief warm up after than and then dropping to normal again.  

[snow_wizard]

No changes (yet). The final third of September is still my call.

 

That would be fine with me.  Late heat like this is actually pretty common with cold ENSO.  1988 was a fabulous example of that.

[Deweydog]

The smoke is nice.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 88 as of 3pm. If they don't get some serious warming in the next 2.5 hours today might not even crack 95.

[snow_wizard]

PDX up to 88 as of 3pm. If they don't get some serious warming in the next 2.5 hours today might not even crack 95.

 

#lame

[snow_wizard]

A heat wave ruined by smoke could be a first if it happens.

[snow_wizard]

The smoke is nice.

 

Good for the lungs I hear.

[ShawniganLake]

A heat wave ruined by smoke could be a first if it happens.

Happened in southern BC 1 month ago. Lots of mid 80s instead of low to mid 90s.