September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[crf450ish]

How big of an idiot do you have to be to use fireworks in the woods when it's this dry? Totally insane. He could end up paying dearly.

Hopefully he does pay. Lots of young people being brought up improperly with no respect or forethought. Dumb.

[Jesse]

Jesse, I was talking about forest fire ecology while you were cracking jokes about Mark Nelsen losing his house. So where does that leave us?

Nice attempt to reframe things here.

[BLI snowman]

Nightmarish conditions at Vista House right now. 91 degrees and a gusty east wind blowing in heavy smoke and ash.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off

 

Fire blizzard...

[snow_wizard]

It's kind of interesting to look at the 850mb temperature graph.  In spite of unimpressive model runs it continues to show a dramatic temperature drop this week.  Pretty nice roller coaster actually.

 

[snow_wizard]

Fire blizzard...

 

For sure.  The fire moving 4 miles in 3 hours is downright ominous no matter how you slice it.  Worst case scenario right now.

[Jesse]

All of the models roast us again next week now. Unreal.

[Deweydog]

76 at midnight in September. Pretty crazy.

[wx_statman]

Sorry man. I like you. But you have come off pretty arrogant this whole exchange. It seems like you think people either have to be one or the other. A wobbling emotional jellyfish incapable of rational thought or a heartless, stoic robot. Just not the case. Being bummed about a wildfire burning up one of my favorite places should be pretty understandable. And it is possible to feel that way while also grasping larger concepts about the nature of wildfire ecology/the inevitability of change, believe it or not.

 

Sorry man. I actually forgot you lived out there. This definitely hits closer to home for you. I should have been more sensitive to that.

[wx_statman]

God help anyone living near there.  This looks dire right now.  It almost looks like it could rival the horrible 1902 Yacolt fire.  That one also featured hot / dry east winds.

 

Yeah, this is a nightmare for people in the west end of the Gorge. I have a friend who lives in Troutdale and he's having a hard time sleeping tonight.

[wx_statman]

Fire blizzard...

 

No kidding.

[Dave]

{{{ Group Hug }}}

[TT-SEA]

All of the models roast us again next week now. Unreal.

What part of roller coaster don't you understand? Normally it would just stay record hot with no change.

[wx_statman]

0z GFS going for 26.1c and an optimistic 101 at the surface tomorrow...the smoke will have something to say about that.

[TT-SEA]

Unreal outside... hot gusts of wind and some ash falling like snowflakes.

[Deweydog]

0z GFS going for 26.1c and an optimistic 101 at the surface tomorrow...the smoke will have something to say about that.

85 might be the target.

[TT-SEA]

Its 85 degrees here right now. Insane.

[snow_wizard]

Its 85 degrees here right now. Insane.

 

I don't envy that at all.  67 here with the house cooling off nicely.

[Deweydog]

92 at Larch at midnight. 72 here about five miles away.

[snow_wizard]

92 at Larch at midnight. 72 here about five miles away.

 

Wow!

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF both have a sharper trough and decently cool air around day 9 or 10.

[Dave]

Its 85 degrees here right now. Insane.

What an odd heat wave this has been.  wx_statman should have some interesting data to plow through for days.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

[wx_statman]

85 might be the target.

 

Wouldn't surprise me with the smoke thickening overnight.

[wx_statman]

Still some 90's at 1:00 AM. 91 at Larch Mountain, 90 at a station in Corbett at 600'.

[snow_wizard]

On a lighter note it appears a map showing a questionable track for Irma went viral tonight, showing the same basic track that Harvey took.  I'm betting it was a map some weenie drew up on a weather forum that somehow went viral.  Very possible we will see things like that happen more often as amateur mets post their own maps on forums.

[snow_wizard]

What an odd heat wave this has been.  wx_statman should have some interesting data to plow through for days.

 

The smoke and east winds have certainly messed with things more than a little bit.  All in all this has been the driest and smokiest summer I've ever seen.  It hasn't even seemed like the same climate this year.

[snow_wizard]

We have ash falling and a blood red moon here tonight.  Never seen anything like it in all my years here.

[Dave]

We have ash falling and a blood red moon here tonight.  Never seen anything like it in all my years here.

Eugene has been in the hazardous category several times in the last couple of days.  I've never seen anything like it and I've been around for the barely regulated field burning days in the 80's.  Disgusting way to end what was once a great summer.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ducE7tX.png

[wx_statman]

The smoke and east winds have certainly messed with things more than a little bit.  All in all this has been the driest and smokiest summer I've ever seen.  It hasn't even seemed like the same climate this year.

 

Down here, it's looked and felt like the central valley of CA since the start of August...without exaggeration.

[wx_statman]

71 at SLE at 3am...in September. With light winds.

[Phil]

Irma is now officially a category 5, with sustained surface winds of 175mph, gusts to 195mph. Pressure still dropping too.

[wx_statman]

Irma is now officially a category 5, with sustained surface winds of 175mph, gusts to 195mph. Pressure still dropping too.

Will likely hit Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands at cat 5 strength.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty crazy what's going on in the PNW with wildfires. And silly that some of us argued smoke could have significant affects on temps...

 

It was increasingly smoky here yesterday as well.

[Phil]

Will likely hit Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands at cat 5 strength.

Farthest east ever recorded for a 175mph hurricane in the Atlantic. The strongest hurricane to ever strike the Lesser Antilles in the post WWII era was hurricane David, at 165mph, so this could break that record too.

 

All of a sudden, the Atlantic has flipped into an old school negative meridional mode, in tandem with the +SIOD. Very 1950s/1960s esque in this case, though whether it's a more prolonged flip remains to be seen.

[Phil]

Wind gusts in Irma now at ~ 215mph. Holy guacamole.

 

It is undergoing an ERC now, as indicated by warming cloud tops since sunrise, so maybe the storm will weaken a bit this afternoon/evening as it passes through the islands (the windfield will grow, however). In addition, shear decreases further and SSTs warm as the storm moves W/NW, so I anticipate another round of strengthening overnight tonight.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX has a new monthly record MAX/MIN in the bag (68).

 

I think the smoke was thick enough overnight to actually inhibit radiational cooling.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like PDX has a new monthly record MAX/MIN in the bag (68).

 

I think the smoke was thick enough overnight to actually inhibit radiational cooling.

 

SEA was still at 72 at 5 a.m. which would have been a new all time record low but then dropped to 69 last hour.

[snow_wizard]

Just enough ash has fallen here to make the cars filthy.  Yuck.

[Phil]

Looks like PDX has a new monthly record MAX/MIN in the bag (68).

 

I think the smoke was thick enough overnight to actually inhibit radiational cooling.

But Jared said that's impossible..