September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[epiceast]

Sorry about the perpetual OT posts, but I have to say that, if Irma avoids interaction with Cuba, this could very well be one of the worst natural disasters in US history. Irma is now at 180mph, gusts to 220mph, and SSTs/shear only grow more conducive to development over the next 5+ days.

 

Much of my family, including my 91 year old grandmother, lives in Miami, FL, so I'm pretty worried right now. That area has many more skyscrapers now than it did back when Andrew struck in 1992, and the population has soared. Not a good scenario.

 

Edit, now up to 185mph.

Only if it hits southwest florida. It might just hit the panhandle and then not many people would care/be affected.

[Dave]

Tropical tidbits needs more server

[TT-SEA]

Sorry about the perpetual OT posts, but I have to say that, if Irma avoids interaction with Cuba, this could very well be one of the worst natural disasters in US history. Irma is now at 180mph, gusts to 220mph, and SSTs/shear only grow more conducive to development over the next 5+ days.

 

Much of my family, including my 91 year old grandmother, lives in Miami, FL, so I'm pretty worried right now. That area has many more skyscrapers now than it did back when Andrew struck in 1992, and the population has soared. Not a good scenario.

 

Edit, now up to 185mph.

12Z ECMWF tracks it right over Cuba.

[Geos]

I don't care if you post hurricane posts here, just don't overload the thread with them. There is a thread on the storm(s) already.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1622-atlantic-hurricanes/

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF tracks it right over Cuba.

That would be the only possible saving grace for the US, albeit a terrible outcome for Cuba. People are people regardless of what country they live in, so that would be an equally terrible outcome from my point of view.

 

Maybe the best case for humanity is a curve north before hitting FL and a weaker landfall in the Carolinas. Would almost certainly be reduced loss of life in that case, when compared to either the Cuba --> US solutions and the FL impact solutions.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not show rain on Saturday here like the 12Z GFS and MM5.

 

It also does not even show a solid marine layer Thursday - Saturday.   

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF tracks it right over Cuba.

 

So did the CMC.

[Front Ranger]

GFS ensembles like the idea of a more significant cooldown days 9-10.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF does not show rain on Saturday here like the 12Z GFS and MM5.

 

It also does not even show a solid marine layer Thursday - Saturday.

Does it show much rain for the southern half of BC over the next 5 days.

[TT-SEA]

Does it show much rain for the southern half of BC over the next 5 days.

Widespread .25 across most of southern BC.

[TT-SEA]

Just lovely... 94 degrees out here and blowing smoke so thick you can barely breath.

 

[TT-SEA]

What is the ash accumulation in your backyard?

Hardly anything... maybe too windy here?

[TT-SEA]

AQL of 312 here.   

 

Meanwhile... the AQI is in the 20s in Seattle.  

[wx_statman]

Looks like monthly record warm lows were set at SEA (68), PDX (66), SLE (65) and EUG (63) this morning. 

 

This was also the 3rd straight 65+ minimum up at SEA, and the 3rd straight monthly record...was previously 63. 

 

*Note - the 69 degree minimum at SEA on 9/2/1974 was a data reporting error. The minimum had been 69 up until 6am, before dropping to 58. The updated minimum was never reported on the WA monthly climate report for 9/1974, and thus entered the record books. 

[Geos]

Just lovely... 94 degrees out here and blowing smoke so thick you can barely breath.

 

 

Wow, that's even worse then a couple hours ago.

Smoke smell has reached the surface in Bothell now.

[wx_statman]

Irma is now the strongest hurricane on record in the open Atlantic, i.e. outside of the GOM and Caribbean basins. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds like Squamish BC set their all time record high yesterday. 101F.

[wx_statman]

Sounds like Squamish BC set their all time record high yesterday. 101F.

 

Wow, no kidding. 

 

38.1c broke 37.6c on 7/11/2007. To be fair, Squamish airport records only go back to 1982...but they also easily beat September 1988's monthly record of 37.0c. So I'm pretty sure yesterday would have been the monthly record even with 100+ years of records.  

[Phil]

Not only do we have Irma and Jose, but yet another depression has just formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Goodness gracious.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I kinda overlooked how impressive yesterday was up north. Aside from the 101 at Squamish, you also had 99 at Hope and 97 at Abbotsford, right in line with their 1988 numbers. 91 at Campbell River also could be a monthly record.

[Deweydog]

Not only do we have Irma and Jose, but yet another depression has just formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Goodness gracious.

More flattened high schools to come...

[Phil]

More flattened high schools to come...

Harvey jokes! My sides hurt!

 

Only Sammy made it out. He squeezed himself through his half-open window, Ric said, grabbed a tree branch and clung to it. Then he turned to his mother and father and grandnieces and nephews, and the sinking van that trapped them.

 

He tried to open the door to let Manuel and Belia out, but the door wouldn’t open, Ric said.

 

"He was yelling at the kids to climb out of the back of the van; I’m sure they couldn’t reach it,” Ric said. “He could hear the kids screaming but couldn’t push the doors open. That’s what he keeps hearing in his head. And the van just went underwater and was gone.”

When first responders reached them, police said, Sulcer was floating facedown in rising floodwaters.

 

The toddler was clinging to her mother's back.

 

The child lived, but Sulcer died, police said.

 

"It's a true testament of a mother's will to sacrifice her life to keep her child alive," Officer Haley Morrow, a Beaumont police spokeswoman, told The Washington Post on Wednesday.

 

Morrow said two Beaumont police officers and two fire rescue divers spotted the toddler, who was wearing a small, pink backpack, and pulled the two from the water. Rescuers were able to save the child, police said, but Sulcer never regained consciousness.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/29/he-could-hear-the-kids-screaming-couple-and-great-grandchildren-feared-dead-in-houston-floods/?tid=a_inl-amp&utm_term=.5ff44012986b

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/30/a-toddler-clung-to-her-mother-in-harvey-floodwaters-only-one-survived/

[Deweydog]

Harvey jokes! My sides hurt!

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/29/he-could-hear-the-kids-screaming-couple-and-great-grandchildren-feared-dead-in-houston-floods/?tid=a_inl-amp&utm_term=.5ff44012986b

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/30/a-toddler-clung-to-her-mother-in-harvey-floodwaters-only-one-survived/

Better to make it worse via sensationalism.

 

Fact is, the casualties from Harvey were extremely low considering the circumstances.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, I kinda overlooked how impressive yesterday was up north. Aside from the 101 at Squamish, you also had 99 at Hope and 97 at Abbotsford, right in line with their 1988 numbers. 91 at Campbell River also could be a monthly record.

 

I did too. Too much going on down here. 

 

Campbell River did break the monthly record. They reached 32.7c on the hourlies, previous was 31.6c on 9/3/1988.

[Phil]

Better to make it worse via sensationalism.

 

Fact is, the casualties from Harvey were extremely low considering the circumstances.

You don't need to try so hard all the time.

[BLI snowman]

I did too. Too much going on down here. 

 

Campbell River did break the monthly record. They reached 32.7c on the hourlies, previous was 31.6c on 9/3/1988.

 

They got cheated out of a historic airmass in August due to the smoke, seems fitting that they cashed in a little more this time while the tables flipped. 

[Deweydog]

I don't need to try so hard all the time.

Agreed.

[Phil]

Agreed.

It took you 10 minutes to come up with that? You've really lost your edge.

[Deweydog]

It took you 10 minutes to come up with that? You've really lost your edge.

Agreed.

[Front Ranger]

No Cat 5 has ever maintained that strength for more than 3 days. Will be interesting to how long Irma does, but there's a good chance she won't be that strong whenever she reaches the U.S.

[Deweydog]

GFS taking a bit more of a northerly trek compared to the last few runs.

[Geos]

I feel bad for anyone along the foothills right now. 340 air quality index right now.

 

https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&mapcenter=0&cityid=641

[Geos]

Looks like a typical overcast day in Seattle, but couldn't farther from normal.

 

[Dave]

HRRRR showing some heavy precip in the area of the Chetko Bar fire, which has been responsible for much of Eugene's smoke.  Would love to see this verify.

 

[TT-SEA]

I feel bad for anyone along the foothills right now. 340 air quality index right now.

 

https://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_city&mapcenter=0&cityid=641

 

I am in the foothills!

 

Decided against mowing the lawn today.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a typical overcast day in Seattle, but couldn't farther from normal.

 

 

 

Looks like an inversion day in December.  

 

The sun is actually casting shadows here.   Everything is bathed in an orangish glow.  

[TT-SEA]

East wind seems to have died now... temperature in North Bend went from 95 down to 85 and the smoke seems a little less thick.

[crf450ish]

The west side of cascades if definitely getting the brunt of the smoke these past few days. Still smokey here but nothing like the pictures posted here. 

[wx_statman]

BNO is spending a 4th straight afternoon at/above their previous monthly record, albeit its a period of record that only goes back to 1973. 

[Geos]

I am in the foothills!

 

Decided against mowing the lawn today.  

 

Yeah I wouldn't have done it either.

Eyes and throat get itchy when I spend any length of time outside. 

Kind of a yellowish tint to things here.