September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Boy, what an active time!

I agree. But focusing on disaster porn 3,000 miles away is just so much more fun!!

[Jesse]

FWIW... the ECMWF control takes that trough later next week and creates a cut-off low to our SW which keeps us pretty warm and the 12Z EPS is just warmer and less troughy than the operational run in the long range.

I looked for myself. Just for the sake of accuracy, the 12z Euro ensemble mean is about the same if not lower with 500mb heights than the Euro. Definitely not warmer/less troughy.

[BLI snowman]

I agree. But focusing on disaster porn 3,000 miles away is just so much more fun!!

 

 I just looked at some pics of the Miami area and it looked like there probably wouldn't even be many beautiful hiking trails around there at all.

[Deweydog]

Pressure back down to 914.

 

Pretty steady at PDX at 1014.

[Deweydog]

Long way to 88...

 

#keepingitlocal

[Jesse]

Long way to 88...

 

#keepingitlocal

Why be right when being wrong feels soooooooOoooooo good?

[Deweydog]

Why be right when being wrong feels soooooooOoooooo good?

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

I looked for myself. Just for the sake of accuracy, the 12z Euro ensemble mean is about the same if not lower with 500mb heights than the Euro. Definitely not warmer/less troughy.

 

I looked at the 850mb temps and it was not below normal overall... while the operational was cooler.

 

Also... at day 10 the operational run has a 500mb height of about 568DM over PDX while the EPS has about 575DM.  

[TT-SEA]

I looked for myself. Just for the sake of accuracy, the 12z Euro ensemble mean is about the same if not lower with 500mb heights than the Euro. Definitely not warmer/less troughy.

 

And here is the control run at the same time... as the trough begins to cut off at day 10.   Its gets warmer in the day 12-15 period.  

 

[Jesse]

I looked at the 850mb temps and it was not below normal overall... while the operational was cooler.

 

Also... at day 10 the operational run has a 500mb height of about 568DM over PDX while the EPS has about 575DM.

Splitting hairs. You were making it sound worse than it was. 500mb heights are lower on the whole on the EPS. Of course things will start to skew toward climo by day 10.

[TT-SEA]

Splitting hairs. You were making it sound worse than it was. 500mb heights are lower on the whole on the EPS. Of course things will start to skew toward climo by day 10.

 

Did not see a cool, troughy period on the EPS.    The operational (late in the run) looked cooler and troughier.   And the operational only goes out to day 10.   

[Deweydog]

So am I supposed to be extremely melancholy about the models right now or not???

[wx_statman]

I agree. But focusing on disaster porn 3,000 miles away is just so much more fun!!

That's kind of a dumb way of putting it, no offense. We're all weather fans here....interested in the meteorology of things. A 185 mph hurricane is very interesting from a meteorological standpoint. You're making it sound like we're googling pictures of floating corpses.

[Timmy]

looks like Multnomah Falls isn't as bad as many thought!  KATU was just live there and although visibility isn't perfect, the picturesque of the falls and the immediate area is not too badly burned.  obviously a lot of the area around it immediately is not trees so that helps.

[Timmy]

If what the PM is saying is accurate..my god. Hopefully this is an error in communication.

 

http://abstvradio.com/radio/

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3787063F-9EFA-4C3F-B452-21859D0D8FC8_zpsox8wfbkt.png

hope so... 

 

The NY times is reporting 2 confirmed deaths in Barbuda with 90% of structures demolished with the PM as a source. 

[Jesse]

As always, its perfectly find to have topical weather talk when it is the most powerful storm on the face of the earth.

Just like football talk is totally ok when you are talking about the most powerful team on the face of the earth.

 

Go Hawks!!!

[TT-SEA]

hope so... 

 

The NY times is reporting 2 confirmed deaths in Barbuda with 90% of structures demolished with the PM as a source. 

 

The population of the island is only 1,638.   

[Geos]

I just noticed some very fine ash particles falling here. Sitting at a comfortable 79 deg.

[stuffradio]

So am I supposed to be extremely melancholy about the models right now or not???

You can be whatever you want to be.

[Dave]

I was told the smoke would clear out today. 

[crf450ish]

I was told the smoke would clear out today. 

Don't count on it until it rains. 

[GobBluth]

I was told the smoke would clear out today. 

need a west wind to move it out. coming tonight.

[crf450ish]

 

 

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday: Little change in the smoke situation for

the next 24 hours. But changes will be taking place aloft in the

higher in the atmosphere. Moisture from the south continues to

stream into the region. Meanwhile a cold front in the Gulf of

Alaska is approaching from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are

expected to develop over Oregon on Thursday afternoon. The

Cascades could also see a local shower or thunderstorm at that

same time. But as the afternoon fades into the evening, the

remnants of these Oregon showers will move over Washington. So

I`ve put showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area

Thursday night into Friday morning. Not expecting a lot of rain or

lightning if anything at all does happen.

 

The cold front will sweep the moisture and smoke out of the area

on Friday morning. By the afternoon, breezy winds will develop.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will form over the

northern mountains, and in the Panhandle. RJ

 

Friday night through Wednesday: The change in the weather pattern

continues as the upper level ridge axis is to the east of North

Idaho. A synoptic size open low pressure area just off the Northern

California Coast is ejecting small disturbances coupled with limited

moisture up from the south and up the west side of the earlier

mentioned upper level ridge which will steer these disturbances over

Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho Friday night on into Saturday.

This change in the flow may not get rid of all the smoke but it

should allow for an improvement as far as a decrease in its

concentration and areal coverage over the area. Otherwise over the

remainder of the weekend the flow across Eastern Washington and

Northern Idaho is more progressive and zonal which is another way of

saying that there will be a stronger west to east flow aloft. The

zonal flow briefly interrupted as longwave ridging reamplifies and

pushes it northward and away from the region which allows for a

return to dry conditions coupled with a warming trend Monday. In

turn this ridging is then interrupted by a perhaps two dry cold

front dropping down from the northwest which flattens the ridge

again, allowing for a return to a lesser intense zonal flow and/or

flow from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooling trend runs

through the weekend bottoming out Monday morning with temperatures

still on the warm side of climo for this time of year. This is

followed by slight warming brought about by the brief interruption

of the zonal flow Monday into Tuesday that may yet be interrupted by

the height falls in the zonal flow going into Wednesday. /Pelatti

[Deweydog]

Seems smokier today than yesterday here. No ash, though.

[TT-SEA]

I was told the smoke would clear out today. 

 

Smoke model says its still around even on Friday morning... just not as bad.   This is going to take a couple more days. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today is smokier down in the Salem area too. 

[Front Ranger]

It's partially a result of the tropical WPAC heat release that's been ongoing since 2013. Don't confuse that with climate cooling, though. It's a conduit to cooling, but not while it's ongoing.

 

It's not global warming, it's climate change.

[Deweydog]

Biggest solar flare in over a decade today?

[Geos]

EURO map showing Irma with Miami in its sights.

 

[Front Ranger]

Biggest solar flare in over a decade today?

Just when things were looking promising.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says cold spring.

 

[Jesse]

CFS says cold spring.

 

 

Hopefully not just fake cold like last spring.

[TT-SEA]

This going to really stretch FEMA thin... and be very expensive.  

 

Luckily Trump appears to be turning into a Democrat and they like spending money.   Now if they would only drop this stupid Russia investigation and leave him alone!  

[crf450ish]

CFS says cold spring.

 

Hopefully that verifies to some degree because last spring (in eastern wa) resulted in multiple devastating rain ontop of snow events causing washouts and flooding around most parts of northeast wa. I have a few images of the damaged road leading to porcupine bay campground. Repair is going to be in the multi millions.... driving piles, backfill enough to fill century link field etc.

 

 

A slow melt would be ideal.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully that verifies to some degree because last spring (in eastern wa) resulted in multiple devastating rain ontop of snow events causing washouts and flooding around most parts of northeast wa. I have a few images of the damaged road leading to porcupine bay campground. Repair is going to be in the multi millions.... driving piles, backfill enough to fill century link field etc.

 

 

The CFS is unbelievably accurate when you get out past 6 months.    Take it to the bank.  

[crf450ish]

This going to really stretch FEMA thin... and be very expensive.

 

Luckily Trump appears to be turning into a Democrat and they like spending money. Now if they would only drop this stupid Russia investigation and leave him alone!

I thought you hated trump? All it takes is one slightly democratic move on his part turn the tide? Just asking.... not trying to start a forum pissin match.

[Phil]

All of the cell towers on Barbuda were snapped, and all the trees were ripped bare. Those winds were easily over 180mph.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EC8F4857-4E7D-40E9-8F90-1E161B05FB5D_zpsyqac7mpj.jpg

[TT-SEA]

I thought you hated trump? All it takes is one slightly democratic move on his part turn the tide? Just asking.... not trying to start a forum pissin match.

I am being a smart a*s.

 

Although he does seem to be turning into a Democrat... slowly but surely.

[Phil]

This looks more like EF4 tornado damage. Crazy how all the trees are were stripped to just a bunch of sticks.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/17FE5086-96CD-4D43-B1D8-9D3835F830FE_zpslzkr5l0u.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C8A516D6-4589-4665-91B4-15FEEC4135EF_zps1rrjwgqo.jpg

[crf450ish]

All of the cell towers on Barbuda were snapped, and all the trees were ripped bare. Those winds were easily over 180mph.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EC8F4857-4E7D-40E9-8F90-1E161B05FB5D_zpsyqac7mpj.jpg

 

*disclaimer*

 

I'm only commenting as an attempt to clarify something. Albeit that was reinforced steel.... towers have a very high center of gravity. Although their thickeness steel at the base may be greater than the thicknesses up towards the top. The wind towards the top against the thinner material up top is producing greater shear strengths comparable to the shear strength of the material at the base. This hurricane is no joke. These things are engineered into the design of steel structures.