September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[James Jones]

It's funny, none of the most comparable heat waves to this event (1944, 1987, 1988) had record warm mins.

 

NWS is going with lows of 66, 68, and 66 for the next three nights, which would all beat the monthly record of 64. Seems very doable for PDX, significantly less likely for less UHI-influenced places like EUG and OLM.

 

Yep, record warm minimums at this point generally require clouds and/or humidity.

 

1987 did have a daily record of 66 on 8/31 at PDX. But yeah, the UHI makes it a lot easier than it used to be - I don't think anybody is going to be blown away if they don't drop below 65 tomorrow morning.

[Deweydog]

GFS sure changed its tune with Irma (Erma).

[wx_statman]

Wow, I knew PDX has been on a tear lately but didn't know it was that bad!

 

Looks like it would be a first for September in any year though if I'm not mistaken.

 

Only in the current era. September 1-3, 1988 held that distinction for 15 years until we reached 94 on 9/3/2003, knocking off the 93 from 1988 on that date.

[Kayla]

Only in the current era. September 1-3, 1988 held that distinction for 15 years until we reached 94 on 9/3/2003, knocking off the 93 from 1988 on that date.

 

Your climate history stat savvy never ceases to amaze me!

[wx_statman]

Yep, record warm minimums at this point generally require clouds and/or humidity.

 

1987 did have a daily record of 66 on 8/31 at PDX. But yeah, the UHI makes it a lot easier than it used to be - I don't think anybody is going to be blown away if they don't drop below 65 tomorrow morning.

 

That day was such an oddball. We essentially pulled off a temperature and wind profile that would be expected a month earlier in the season. Low of 66 followed by 102, without any surfacing east wind.

[Front Ranger]

GFS sure changed its tune with Irma (Erma).

 

Look out, Miami!

[Deweydog]

F*ck you, Florida!

[wx_statman]

Your climate history stat savvy never ceases to amaze me!

 

I gave myself a lofty name to live up to. 

[Jesse]

Yep, record warm minimums at this point generally require clouds and/or humidity.

 

1987 did have a daily record of 66 on 8/31 at PDX. But yeah, the UHI makes it a lot easier than it used to be - I don't think anybody is going to be blown away if they don't drop below 65 tomorrow morning.

I'll go with another 63.

[Geos]

Hit 87 here today. Saw that the top half of Rainier was shrouded in smoke this afternoon. Smoke probably took a few degrees off the high today. Can't wait for more troughs.

[Geos]

Geezzz!

 

[wx_statman]

Back to back 98's at SLE...will probably make it 4 straight. 

 

Impressive readings on the east side today as well. La Grande set a monthly record at 102, breaking 100 degrees in 1955 and 1998. Both Rome (105, tying 1955) and Baker City (101, tying 1998) were in monthly record territory as well. Burns hit 99 just missing the city record of 100 from 1950 for September.

[wx_statman]

Geezzz!

 

 

Labor Day 1935 redux with Andrew's track. 

[wx_statman]

FYI, this is from Wunderground regarding the ability of the GFS to model hurricane strength in the long range:

 

We cannot rule out the chance that Irma will reach Category 5 strength, but we can safely discount some of the most extreme model-generated intensities. The GFS global model and the new HMON regional hurricane model have consistently been deepening Irma to pressures below 900 millibars (mb). However, neither of these models fully incorporates the interaction between ocean and atmosphere that serves as a check on a hurricane’s peak strength.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian smoke model shows the smoke arriving in the lower levels tomorrow and Tuesday will be downright disgusting.   

 

I am hoping the onshore push on Thursday morning clears it out for good.

 

Here is Tuesday... really bad deal.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Geezzz!

 

The GEM has a very similar track to the GFS.

[seattleweatherguy]

Weather app now going for 96 for bothell tues

[Front Ranger]

Canadian smoke model shows the smoke arriving in the lower levels tomorrow and Tuesday will be downright disgusting.   

 

I am hoping the onshore push on Thursday morning clears it out for good.

 

Here is Tuesday... really bad deal.

 

 

Smoke has been noticeable here the past few days.

[Geos]

Weather app now going for 96 for bothell tues

 

Yuck.

[Geos]

Canadian smoke model shows the smoke arriving in the lower levels tomorrow and Tuesday will be downright disgusting.   

 

I am hoping the onshore push on Thursday morning clears it out for good.

 

Here is Tuesday... really bad deal.

 

 

The area of 200+ is really extensive. 

Need those rains soon.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day on Lake Whatcom in Bellingham... 

 

[wx_statman]

Tuesday will be a tough nut to crack, although the 0Z GFS keeps insisting on 27.3C and offshore flow.

 

At any rate, we've been on a tear lately. We had three separate stretches last year alone:

 

April 17-19 (81-87-89)

August 18-20 (99-100-100)

November 8-10 (68-66-68)

 

We almost did again from August 1-3 this year. The 97 on 8/1 came up a degree short. 

 

Have to correct myself here, turns out I was looking at the 12Z. The 0Z has lowered Tuesday to 26.1C but shows what could be a perfect heating scenario - light east winds during the early part of the afternoon that presumably die down during peak heating hours, and transition to light northerly by 5pm. 

 

The 0Z also shows tomorrow at 27.0C - I believe the highest for Monday yet - with light NE winds throughout the day. We could see 100 tomorrow if that were to verify. 

[Phil]

I think Irma broke the Euro.

[epiceast]

Canadian smoke model shows the smoke arriving in the lower levels tomorrow and Tuesday will be downright disgusting.   

 

I am hoping the onshore push on Thursday morning clears it out for good.

 

Here is Tuesday... really bad deal.

 

I was hoping that North & East winds would clear us out for a couple of days at least like they did last time.

[ShawniganLake]

Models liking the Florida idea tonight.

 

Euro continues to be a little less aggressive with the cool down, troughing potential.

[wx_statman]

FWIW, the 0Z sounding over SLE this afternoon came in at 24.8C with 594dm heights. A few days ago the GFS was showing just 22.9C for this afternoon, when it looked like today might not climb above the low 90's.

 

Ridge is overperforming. 

[epiceast]

Smoke so thick you can't even see a mile this morning.

[Kayla]

Canadian smoke model shows the smoke arriving in the lower levels tomorrow and Tuesday will be downright disgusting.   

 

I am hoping the onshore push on Thursday morning clears it out for good.

 

Here is Tuesday... really bad deal.

 

 

Your turn! Smoke is notably better out this way and improving this morning.

[Jesse]

Today could be one of those days where the smoke is actually thick enough to have an affect on temps. The sun is getting higher in the sky but it's still so red you can almost look right at it.

[BLI snowman]

Today could be one of those days where the smoke is actually thick enough to have an affect on temps. The sun is getting higher in the sky but it's still so red you can almost look right at it.

 

Gonna be really close for 100 today.

[Kayla]

I'll go with another 63.

 

Nice call!

[Jesse]

Nice call!

Thanks. At this point in the season it's really hard to avoid that sunrise dip if skies are clear.

[Kayla]

Thanks. At this point in the season it's really hard to avoid that sunrise dip if skies are clear.

 

And running a -2 departure this morning. Will be an uphill battle to 100 today. Smoke already a factor?

[Jesse]

And running a -2 departure this morning. Will be an uphill battle to 100 today. Smoke already a factor?

We'll see. Some of the thickest I've seen this year so far at the moment. And there have been a lot of smoky days this year.

[BLI snowman]

12z ups the rainfall amounts a tad this week.

[Jesse]

Gonna be really close for 100 today.

Upper air certainly supports it. The 06z spit out a 29c over PDX for 00z (4pm) today. Insanely hot airmass.

 

If the smoke keeps up it could be a mitigating factor though. 98-99 would be my call at the moment.

[Jesse]

12z ups the rainfall amounts a tad this week.

Thank goodness. Seeing Indian Heaven on fire now is pretty devastating. That has been a favorite hiking area for years.

 

Not to mention Eagle Creek.

[BLI snowman]

Also kills Miami.

[BLI snowman]

Upper air certainly supports it. The 06z spit out a 29c over PDX for 00z (4pm) today. Insanely hot airmass.

 

If the smoke keeps up it could be a mitigating factor though. 98-99 would be my call at the moment.

 

I'll go with 100 on the button. Smoke has a better chance of impacting things in the valley by a couple degrees, wouldn't be surprised to see SLE pull off another 98.

[BLI snowman]

Thank goodness. Seeing Indian Heaven on fire now is pretty devastating. That has been a favorite hiking area for years.

 

Not to mention Eagle Creek.

 

It's been pretty consistent on the Thursday-Friday timeframe being wet at least. Not sure what the Euro precip maps have shown.

 

I was planning to hike Eagle Creek soon, once the weather cools down.