October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[St Paul Storm]

I bet you guys get some windy snowshowers atleast. Thats enough to put ya in the mood with it still being October!

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll never say I don’t want a good snow. But I’ll take just mood flakes this weekend. My yard is a flippin disaster. Several inches of snow now mean fall cleanup in the spring is gonna suck.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

There is a significant trend in the Canadian/Euro for the end of the
work week/Weekend, as it now appears the next strong upper wave/cold
pool will be cutting off over the Midwest (Iowa) on Friday, keeping
southeast Michigan on the milder/wetter side into the first half of
the weekend, with a weaker shot of cold air (850 mb temps -2 to -4
C) for the second half of the weekend as the trough axis finally
moves over the Central Great Lakes.

[Tom]

Started a Storm thread for the late week system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1660-1026-1029-upper-mwgls-snow-system/

[jaster220]

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll never say I don’t want a good snow. But I’ll take just mood flakes this weekend. My yard is a flippin disaster. Several inches of snow now mean fall cleanup in the spring is gonna suck.

 

Welcome to my life along the coast of NMI back in the 90's    Almost every year, due to the lake shadow warmth our leafs hung on until the last week of Oct, yet winter storms could hit first wk of Nov. Leaving me zilch window to get a ton of lawn killing leafs collected. I was known to leave work at Noon if we scored a decent day in the middle of the week just to make sure it got done. And that wasn't paid time off 

[jzuzphreek]

Welcome to the Forum!  Great to hear we have a new member in the KC region.  We do have a couple members down there that post on here but since the last couple of dud winters it's been rather quiet.  Do you follow Gary Lezak by any chance?  He's prob THE guy down there in terms of meteorologists. As for this winter, I have to agree, that this season is shaping up a lot better for those in your region.  Don't hesitate to post or comment on here.  The more the merrier!

 

Thanks for the warm welcome! 

 

I had actually never heard of Gary Lezak until finding this forum. The channel he's on in KC isn't broadcast here in St. Joseph, but I've begun following him on social media. 

 

I think the irony of all this is that my folks are still watching the Gulf for possible development! Personally, I'll stick with the snow! 

[Tom]

The first WSW's of the season hoisted for ND and parts of W MN.  Very strong wording, including possible Blizzard conditions.

 

 

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Travel could be very
difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of up to 2
inches, with localized amounts up to 4 inches, are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota, west central
Minnesota, northeast North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...Winds will pick up Thursday morning, but rain will change
over to snow Thursday afternoon and evening. The strong winds
and snow possibilities will continue into Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 60 mph could
cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is also possible.

 

[Tony]

Started a Storm thread for the late week system...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1660-1026-1029-upper-mwgls-snow-system/

Well it looks like it's time to start getting into winter mode. Not sure what to expect this year but it looks like a fast start to winter will be in the works.

[Niko]

Man, it is windy out there. My subdivision has garbage bins flying all ova the place. Winds are gusting to 45mph. Luckily, I secured mine earlier today .

[Tony]

Maybe parts of NE IL might see some flakes flying in the air Saturday night. This run couple days old.

[james1976]

The first WSW's of the season hoisted for ND and parts of W MN. Very strong wording, including possible Blizzard conditions.

You know.....i was thinking today about possible blizzard conditions due to the wind and even a couple inches of snow. Nice to see it in the wording. Now come south!

[St Paul Storm]

The first WSW's of the season hoisted for ND and parts of W MN.  Very strong wording, including possible Blizzard conditions.

Would probably have been a Blizzard Watch if they hadn’t changed the winter weather alerts. Bummer.

[Niko]

Per Noaa:

 

The upper wave ejecting southeastward from the Canadian Prairies will
then dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday as an upper low
develops. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly flow will boost 850
mb temps above 5 C on Friday across Southeast Michigan allowing highs
to make a run for the low 60s. Model guidance has trended slower and
further south with the low tracking through the Great Lakes this
weekend. The main impact across SE Michigan will be the potential for
a slightly warmer, wetter Saturday as a cold front slowly pushes
east through the region. Once the front passes, a modest push of cold
air (850 mb temps near -5 C) will linger over the region through
early next week as the upper low slowly moves northeast across the
Great Lakes before another upper low becomes established over
Ontario. This will keep a northwest flow in place as disturbances
riding southeast across the region keep a chance for showers and a
few wet snowflakes in the forecast. Highs will remain in the upper
40s early next week with lows in the mid 30s.

Nice to have a little flurry activity right b4 Halloween.

[Niko]

Would probably have been a Blizzard Watch if they hadn’t changed the winter weather alerts. Bummer.

Big mistake that they decided that. Makes no sense.

[Niko]

Maybe parts of NE IL might see some flakes flying in the air Saturday night. This run couple days old.

I might see some as well on Sunday. Just a few passing flurries.

[Tom]

Maybe parts of NE IL might see some flakes flying in the air Saturday night. This run couple days old.

Glad to see you back Tony!  Hope things are going well for ya.

[Tom]

Who wants to do a little rock cliff jumping???  Not!  Mind you, these rocks are 20-30ft tall and the waves are crashing up and over the tops of them.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9XRV4L8tgc

 

Some of these waves look like oceanic rollers produced by a Hurricane...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeYb4iKKBY

[james1976]

18z GFS pushes the early Nov system way south. That L from way up in N. Canada literally drops straight south. Crazy! But it dries out. A SW low takes shape but rides the bottom of the trough which is way south on this run. Bigtime trough action going on. The bad side is that it may push the storm track too far south and east. We don't want the EC weanies getting all the fun. Lol. Our friend down in OK might score something out of this though! Fun times and very active pattern going on.

[westMJim]

It's now down to 41° here at my house with a cold rain. Up at Marquette they are reporting a temperature of 34° with light snow 

 

http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/display.php?stid=KSAW

[Tom]

Skilling mentioned that one of the buoy's on Lake Superior reached its highest peak ever reported.  I can only imagine what the surf looks like out there.  Gales of October!

[jaster220]

Well it looks like it's time to start getting into winter mode. Not sure what to expect this year but it looks like a fast start to winter will be in the works.

ORD had no snow in Jan or Feb. That's never happened before. Get ready, you guys in NEIL are gonna be rocked this winter!!

[Niko]

Its quite nasty out there...44F and right rain.

[jaster220]

Skilling mentioned that one of the buoy's on Lake Superior reached its highest peak ever reported.  I can only imagine what the surf looks like out there.  Gales of October!

Can see why, full fetch N to S and for many hrs!

 

https://www.windy.com/?44.856,-84.510,6

[Niko]

Tropics are not done yet....TWC is keeping an eye on the GOM, perhaps, a little further south, near Cancun.

[jaster220]

Its quite nasty out there...44F and right rain.

And LOL, the day after they end frost/freeze advisories, my 4-cast low is 31

[Niko]

And LOL, the day after they end frost/freeze advisories, my 4-cast low is 31

There is a good chance that we go below freezing this weekend and don't be surprise if your area sees a snowsquall, ofc, no accumulations, but definitely a squall not outta the question. Even my area stands the risk of a flurry.

[Niko]

Went outside for a bit and it definitely feels like October with that cold rain coming down and that wind howling.

[Niko]

Maybe parts of NE IL might see some flakes flying in the air Saturday night. This run couple days old.

I see that back edge blue color right IMBY! Hmm..interesting, indeed!

[VMB443]

According to the radar it looks like some snow flakes in Madison!

[Tom]

An area of light snow/flurries is tracking S/SE in C/S WI this morning.  Reports of flurries around MSN.

[Tom]

First Frost Advisories of the season hoisted for WI/IL/IN/OH!  We'll see if I see any frosts from the urban heat island.  Hope it gets cold enough tonight.

[Tom]

ORD has had an incredible 8.70" of rain this month...2nd wettest Oct on record thus far!  Temps have just reached the coldest readings of the season down to 37F.

[VMB443]

An area of light snow/flurries is tracking S/SE in C/S WI this morning.  Reports of flurries around MSN.

Looks like they are spreading - and creeping towards my area - I'm going to go stare at the sky

[Tom]

Looks like they are spreading - and creeping towards my area - I'm going to go stare at the sky

Hope its not virga!

[jaster220]

 

000
NWUS53 KGRR 250324
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1124 PM EDT TUE OCT 24 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN FREESOIL 44.11N 86.22W
10/24/2017 M7.74 INCH MASON MI PUBLIC

RELAYED THROUGH TV 9&10 CADILLAC.

[jaster220]

ORD has had an incredible 8.70" of rain this month...2nd wettest Oct on record thus far!  Temps have just reached the coldest readings of the season down to 37F.

 

KBTL (Battle Creek) set the new Oct record and it was still raining last evening. Awaiting KGRR's official report. Sept '08 wettest month at 12.08" is also in play with six days left in the month.  No official data set for Marshall, and we've gotten less here the past 2 storms, so pretty sure no records here. Looks like per KRMY airport unit, we had just under 1.7" total for the storm. 

[westMJim]

This October is turning out to be a record month! The 2.81” of rain that fell at GRR on the 23^rd set a new daily record for Grand Rapids (the old record was 1.92” in 2009.  And now with the 9.31” that has fallen so far this month has now set a new record for the month of October breaking the old record of 8.32” set in 1954. If that was not enough Grand Rapids will at least tie the record for the latest in the fall season for reaching 39° or lower.  So far the coldest it has officially been in Grand Rapids this fall is 40° the latest on record for the first 39° or colder day is October 25^th 1914 (so we now have tied the record) if it does not reach 39 at the airport before 12 midnight that will be a new record. As also this month is still running +7.1° above average. The current mean at GRR is 59.1° if that were to hold that would tie the record for the warmest October of record set in 1900. Even with the cool down this will be one of the warmest Octobers here. 

[VMB443]

Hope its not virga!

Yep - virga.

[Niko]

It is cloudy, windy and cold, typical October weather with temps in the low 40s ( 42F) and a wcf of 33F. Its going to be a cold, Brrrrrrr night tonight as temps fall below freezing, if not, upper 20s.

[westMJim]

Snow on the ground in UP this will not last but there is snow on the ground this morning in parts of the UP

 

 

http://www.jamadots.com/webcams

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Coverage of
showers could easily exceed the outgoing slight/low chance pop
forecast. With the bulk of the precipitation coming through during
the night time hours, there is a low chance of wet snow mixing, but
looks doubtful right now with 850 mb temps only down around -4 C.

 

W will see if any flurry action will occur.