December Weather In the PNW

[Deweydog]

Oh you silly Canadians...

[Timmy]

The prime minister caved to the gfs big time. Still shows some snow around Saturday. But the ridge buckles and undercuts. What about the upgrade? And what about Phil’s forecast and Jim’s algorithm.

#blamejesse

[Timmy]

Oh you silly Canadians...

Let’s all protest maple syrup in solidarity

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMC much colder than GFS

[Timmy]

12z CMC much colder than GFS

Much warmer than it had been showing tho

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to see the GFS and good ole' American ingenuity leading the way. 

[ShawniganLake]

The prime minister caved to the gfs big time. Still shows some snow around Saturday. But the ridge buckles and undercuts. What about the upgrade? And what about Phil’s forecast and Jim’s algorithm.

#blamejesse

Phil predicted this wouldn’t amount to much.

[van city]

Let’s all protest maple syrup in solidarity

Enjoy the rain!

[Deweydog]

In more selfish news, sunny Xmas!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The only consolation is the hilarity of people taking a premature victory lap yesterday and ending up being totally wrong. 

[Jesse]

Phil predicted this wouldn’t amount to much.

That he did. “Warning shot.”

[Timmy]

That he did. “Warning shot.”

Reminds me of the game of thrones South Park. “The dragons are coming, not now but when they get here, they will be even more awesome”

[Timmy]

This is why Canada can’t have a king, and why it’s model can’t be one either.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can already here Tims roses giggling.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hi res WRF. Hard to imagine but it’s not that different from the Euro

 

 

93AD5682-BE4F-4A40-ACAB-B4E4BD39C973.gif

 

There's been a shift to the south with the low this morning in most of the models. This will make this interesting, that shows this area getting 12" of snow, very hard to imagine. But the line between 12" and nothing is just a short distance to the south.

 

Another interesting prospect is the backwash low that has started to show up in some runs. Those can bring nice surprises, potentially even for people south of the initial low. 

[mountainman]

Hahaha you guys are funny.  For all the model riding and emotional swings up and down, only to be followed by epics fails and disappointments...my advice to you snowlovers down here is to MOVE!!

So anyways, any of you brains down south here wanna give us your thots on if we will score in Vancouver or what??

I was thinking:

PhilTheThrill

DJDroppin

or whoever else is KingUSA forecaster and thanks eh!

[Phil]

I think it was Phil who said the GEFS has an overwhelming tendency to trend toward the operational sometimes. I.e. if the op is bad the ensembles have a higher chance of being bad as well.

 

As long as the EPS is looking good I have a hard time being pessimistic.

It definitely does. When the operational GFS flips cold again, the GEFS will probably do so, as well.

[mountainman]

Good call VanISleSouth.  Are you Monty?  On the Can forums? If not then who?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A bit further south on that low and parts of puget sound might get a surprise.

[ShawniganLake]

There's been a shift to the south with the low this morning in most of the models. This will make this interesting, that shows this area getting 12" of snow, very hard to imagine. But the line between 12" and nothing is just a short distance to the south.

 

Another interesting prospect is the backwash low that has started to show up in some runs. Those can bring nice surprises, potentially even for people south of the initial low.

This mornings gfs and CMC have quite a bit less moisture with the system then they did yesterday. Mesoscale models are still insanely wet. Nam shows 20-28” around the Malahat.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry the horrible Amtrak derailment in Washington has taken precedence over any model riding or analysis

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Good call VanISleSouth.  Are you Monty?  On the Can forums? If not then who?

 

Nope, that's Shawnigan, I haven't joined the other form yet, but occasionally lurk.

[Jesse]

Reminds me of the game of thrones South Park. “The dragons are coming, not now but when they get here, they will be even more awesome”

Or maybe we will continue to be pretty decent at predicting the pattern.

[Jesse]

I think Amtrak took model derailment symbolism a little too far. Not cool, guys.

Pretty poor taste. There would be a huge outcry and this would be promptly deleted if I said it.

 

#yikes

 

#blamejesse

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sorry the horrible Amtrak derailment in Washington has taken precedence over any model riding or analysis

 

Just saw that. Pretty terrible. 

 

On the other hand nothing you can do about it, so not sure why it takes precedence. 

[mountainman]

ok thanks guys...sorry to see the train go off it's tracks.  What caused that?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just saw that. Pretty terrible. 

 

On the other hand nothing you can do about it, so not sure why it takes precedence. 

Why? Because people have lost their lives. Confirmed casualties. It's hit me right in the gut.... Model riding and whatever is happening now or in 7 days is just not important.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just saw that. Pretty terrible. 

 

On the other hand nothing you can do about it, so not sure why it takes precedence. 

Human nature. There are moms dads and children on that train. 

[Timmy]

Why? Because people have lost their lives. Confirmed casualties. It's hit me right in the gut.... Model riding and whatever is happening now or in 7 days is just not important.

I’ve only heard 5 injuries. I hope it isn’t too bad.

 

But let’s be honest, if it was a good run you would still be posting about it

[ShawniganLake]

Very nice retrogression at day 9 on the GFS. This run could go somewhere

[Phil]

You guys will enjoy this 12z GFS run. Might be catching on in the clown range.

[Timmy]

Very nice retrogression at day 9 on the GFS. This run could go somewhere

If only we could live in hour 240

[Front Ranger]

There's been a shift to the south with the low this morning in most of the models. This will make this interesting, that shows this area getting 12" of snow, very hard to imagine. But the line between 12" and nothing is just a short distance to the south.

 

Another interesting prospect is the backwash low that has started to show up in some runs. Those can bring nice surprises, potentially even for people south of the initial low. 

 

Yep, this looks like the kind of setup that could deliver some CZ snow on Wednesday morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

I’ve only heard 5 injuries. I hope it isn’t too bad.

 

But let’s be honest, if it was a good run you would still be posting about it

No, my focus and mind is not on the weather or models.... Pierce County Sheriff "confirmed casualties."

[ShawniganLake]

Incoming

[Gradient Keeper]

I'll step out for now.. This just puts life and everything in a greater perspective... I do hope for good EURO run. Take care

[Deweydog]

I’ve only heard 5 injuries. I hope it isn’t too bad.

 

But let’s be honest, if it was a good run you would still be posting about it

It's much worse than that.

[Jesse]

Human nature. There are moms dads and children on that train.

Some tend to have a very low regard for any human life besides their own.

[Phil]

I’ve only heard 5 injuries. I hope it isn’t too bad.

 

But let’s be honest, if it was a good run you would still be posting about it

It’s obviously much worse than that. The pictures speak for themselves.

[Jesse]

The rails were built on Vancouver island.

 

Or maybe #blamejesse

Not funny.