December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5-7 definitely encouraged by the likelihood of Aleutian ridging merging with new offshore ridge evolving into huge block. This coincides with the switch to -WPO, -PNA, massive -EPO, and MJO. Good things ahead.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 16 minutes

[Deweydog]

At 192 hours, the GFS seems on route to having the block ride the GOA ridge down as a fake cold clipper.

 

#climo

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kool

 

[BLI snowman]

At least you can say the GEM has been consistent. GFS not so much.

GFS has been pretty consistent. Screwing us on 95% of the runs, within day 10.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I swear. Watching this blog on a daily basis can make anyone crazy. Surprised that someone hasn't gone postal here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is a big snow storm across the heartland...

[HighlandExperience]

I swear. Watching this blog on a daily basis can make anyone crazy. Surprised that someone hasn't gone postal here.

I do agree with you there. Maybe best to take a break for ten days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a mess this would be...

 

[liquidsnow]

Where's Phil?

[Deweydog]

Where's Phil?

At your mom's house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I doubt we'll see anything epic in the next two weeks, but I think we'll have a couple nice surprises.

[liquidsnow]

At your mom's house.

But she hasn't been alive for 8 years now.

[Deweydog]

But she hasn't been alive for 8 years now.

He has issues.

[Gradient Keeper]

I doubt we'll see anything epic in the next two weeks, but I think we'll have a couple nice surprises.

I think Phil is going to be right. After Christmas towards the New Year. I suspect we'll see some decent to good runs mixed with meh/decent to poor ones the next day or 2, then balls to the wall craziness afterwards.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

At times like these I look to the JMA for guidance:

 

[MossMan]

Moderate rain and 35. Been such the norm over the last 6yrs. By the time it’s cold enough the precip will be gone. So tired of this marginal setup crap.

[MossMan]

He has issues.

Some people are into that...

[BLI snowman]

Not really anything to like about the 00z. Sounds pretty consistent with previous days to me.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Moderate rain and 35. Been such the norm over the last 6yrs. By the time it’s cold enough the precip will be gone. So tired of this marginal setup crap.

I'm heading to montana I think.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think Phil is going to be right. After Christmas towards the New Year. I suspect we'll see some decent to good runs mixed with meh/decent to poor ones the next day or 2, then balls to the wall craziness afterwards.

Yeah, the motherlode wasn't suppose to come until the January 1 to 10 time period. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah, the motherload wasn't suppose to come until the January 1 to 10 time period. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion.

I’m really worried for the health of people here if that doesn’t pan out.

[Gradient Keeper]

I’m really worried for the health of people here if that doesn’t pan out.

Yeah for some that's accurate.

 

00z ECMWF in 49 minutes

00z GFS 22 hours 28 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern reset on the GFS... Maybe after that it will be our turn.

 

Yeah? Maybe? Right? Phil?

Exactly. Blow that puny underperforming block out, reset pattern very briefly, new flat ridge moves through Aleutians, ridge develops offshore and they merge into a block. Very much like previous runs, 6z GFS, several prior Ensemble runs, today's 12z EPS, CMCE.

[Deweydog]

Pattern reset on the GFS... Maybe after that it will be our turn.

 

Yeah? Maybe? Right? Phil? Err.. I mean, Jared?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I sure wish the nam went out 300hrs.

[MossMan]

I'm heading to montana I think.

Our friends in the Carlton area near Winthrop tormented me all day with snowy wonderful pics...one day we will be moving over there. Just not possible with our jobs to make the jump yet. However we are looking at larger houses on more property east or north of where we are now. (West of Smokey Point) found the perfect place just east of Big Lake, custom house, amazing shop, 21 acres, no neighbors, and a 1,000ft hill that I could take a quad up to. Was on the market for the last 8 months, I find it and the next day goes under contract...one of these days I won’t be a day late or a dollar short! Haha! Also looking up north near Ferndale. Back here near home thet recently tore down a big chunk of wooded property by Costco where all the homeless were living so they could put up more Taco Bell’s and banks so of course the homeless druggies scattered like rats and moved into our residential area west of town...time to get out of here and find a snowier place in the process!

[liquidsnow]

"Pattern reset" is the new "warning shot"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, the motherlode wasn't suppose to come until the January 1 to 10 time period. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion.

 

At this point I would take January 2006.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’m really worried for the health of people here if that doesn’t pan out.

I'm okay with getting my hopes up and getting it crushed. Once it finally does happen it will mean that much more to me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Meanwhile...

I hate to crush hopes but I have never seen the GEM verify that far out

At least you can say the GEM has been consistent. GFS not so much.

It will be consistent to not verify too...

[TT-SEA]

What a mess this would be...

 

 

 

Dallas is no stranger to ice storms.    It happens fairly frequently there.  

 

Remember the Leon Lett game in Dallas on Thanksgiving in 1993?   Field was covered in a blanket of ice and sleet.   

 

 

 

And it was also an issue during Super Bowl week in 2011.   

 

http://sportsdaydfw.imgix.net/SUPER_BOWL_WEATHER_FOOTBALL_17871676.JPG

[luvssnow_spokane]

Where's Phil?

Hiding because the writing is on the wall that this is all going to s**t!...

[MossMan]

Hiding because the writing is on the wall that this is all going to s**t!...

Never a good sign when both Phil and Jim are nowhere to be found.

[Jesse]

I hate to crush hopes but I have never seen the GEM verify that far out

 

It will be consistent to not verify too...

 

This doesn't make sense.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'm okay with getting my hopes up and getting it crushed. Once it finally does happen it will mean that much more to me.

Kind of like asking a girl out when she keeps saying, "no."  Never give up!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Never a good sign when both Phil and Jim are nowhere to be found.

It is consistent at least... it means one thing .... winter cancel ... Jim is having a melt down. Phil is analyzing his analysis to explain what went wrong and why it may work out for us in February... maybe.

[luvssnow_spokane]

What is this "hope" you speak of?

Hope that the GEM’s runs will verify

[Frontal Snowsquall]

At this point I would take January 2006.

I'd be okay with a January 2004 or 2017 type event. I just need the snow to stick around for at least a few days afterwards.

[liquidsnow]

It is consistent at least... it means one thing .... winter cancel ... Jim is having a melt down. Phil is analyzing his analysis to explain what went wrong and why it may work out for us in February... maybe.

Why not March? Perhaps we can get a decent PSCZ that drops a trace of slush on the grassy spots! That would be awesome!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Why not March? Perhaps we can get a decent PSCZ that drops a trace of slush on the grassy spots! That would be awesome!!!!

Good point nothing better than a quick hitting slush fest we can satisfy our spring fantasies with...