December Weather In the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Tim would you buy him another phone if he lost it?

 

We got insurance on their phones so he would get another one.

 

They have to make their car payments and pay for all expenses related to their cars... except for insurance which is ridiculously expensive for a 16 year old boy (multiplied by 2 for us).

[Front Ranger]

We're just giving you s**t. It's okay to want a little love for being a forum soothsayer. You just have to pick your spots otherwise it comes off a little desperate and forced.

 

  We all want to be loved! Even the stratosphere-dwellers...

 

I'm no soothsayer. There aren't any when it comes to predicting the weather. I believe in using science. If I see a silly, illogical idea being propagated, I'm going to challenge it. There were some pretty silly ideas being propagated about what's possible with LR forecasting, and some inconvenient facts being ignored in favor of wishful thinking and popular narratives.

 

All that being said...I hope everyone one here scores sooner rather than later, and Phil, SW, and I all look good come January. 

[Front Ranger]

3km NAM doesn't look too promising for anyone south of Whatcom County tonight. Not even Tim, really...though he always seems to score in these setups.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We got insurance on their phones so he would get another one.

 

They have to make their car payments and pay for all expenses related to their cars... except for insurance which is ridiculously expensive for a 16 year old boy (multiplied by 2 for us).

Time flies, I remember you posting pics of them and they were just little kids now they are driving.

[High Desert Mat!]

Went from 46 at 4pm to now 31 at 6pm. Nice front. Getting nice and frozen out there from all the rain.

[High Desert Mat!]

Kids are dumb. We were all there one day. Some still are.

[TT-SEA]

Time flies, I remember you posting pics of them and they were just little kids now they are driving.

 

It crazy how fast time flies... faster and faster it seems.  

[TT-SEA]

Stuck at 38 here with a fairly strong SW wind.

[MossMan]

35 with a few flakes with a few liquid drops at home.

[seattleweatherguy]

Kids are dumb. We were all there one day. Some still are.

To be old and smart you have to be young and stupid

[umadbro]

I love being young and stupid. Makes life so much more entertaining.

[WeatherMan101]

Close to finishing up with 4 inches here not including the melting from the switch over to rain and back to snow here. Pretty good day

[Timmy Supercell]

Snow is sticking now. About 1/10 inch on everything.

[Geos]

CZ seems disorganized right now. Still sitting around 40 here. 

[TT-SEA]

CZ seems disorganized right now. Still sitting around 40 here. 

 

Not a good CZ scenario... flow is from the SW rather than the west.  

 

That is why the most active area is to the NE of the Olympics rather than Seattle (with westerly flow).   

 

Don't expect a strong and well-defined c-zone moving from north to south tonight... it won't be happening.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam shows even a little more precip friday with that wave moving south.

[TT-SEA]

Nam shows even a little more precip friday with that wave moving south.

 

There will be precip that day... the ECMWF has been showing it on every run.   The GFS, NAM, and WRF do terrible with that set-up.   They will wait until maybe Thursday to show what the ECMWF has been showing all along. 

 

Unfortunately... the ECMWF is also a little too warm for snow in the lowlands with temps in the mid to upper 30s early on Friday morning.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

35 with a few flakes with a few liquid drops at home.

 

This area got mossmaned today. Over 1.6" of 35F rain or rain/snow mix last night. Then as area's only 10 or 20 miles north got slammed with snow it warmed up to 37F, but as the low started retreating and temperature plummeted to 33F the precipitation died off. Elevation made little difference today, it was all about where you sat relative to the low; pretty poor luck to miss the sweet spot by such a small margin.

 

My brother took this shot up at my parents house on the Strait of Georgia earlier in the day:

 

[TT-SEA]

3km NAM doesn't look too promising for anyone south of Whatcom County tonight. Not even Tim, really...though he always seems to score in these setups.

 

Not really in this set up... I need a more traditional c-zone here with temps this marginal.     Its still 38 here.

 

There might be some wet snow in the morning but it likely will not amount to much at all. 

[TT-SEA]

This area got mossmaned today. Over 1.6" of 35F rain or rain/snow mix last night. Then as area's only 10 or 20 miles north got slammed with snow it warmed up to 37F, but as the low started retreating and temperature plummeted to 33F the precipitation died off. Elevation made little difference today, it was all about where you sat relative to the low; pretty poor luck to miss the sweet spot by such a small margin.

 

My brother took this shot up at my parents house on the Strait of Georgia earlier in the day:

 

 

They have an awesome location there and great view.   I bet that is really gorgeous in the summer!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS develops some precip over NW Oregon Friday night.

[Front Ranger]

Geez, blocking ridge seems to be getting squeezed into the Arctic faster on every run.

[TT-SEA]

Geez, blocking ridge seems to be getting squeezed into the Arctic faster on every run.

 

Yep.

[MikeInEverett]

Not liking that 984 mb low south of the Aleutians at hr 120..

[VancouverIslandSouth]

They have an awesome location there and great view.   I bet that is really gorgeous in the summer!

 

Summers are amazing up there, the Strait of Georgia often approaches 70F so it doesn't usually get the evening chill that Victoria and places around the Puget Sound often get. It's a great spot for weather watching, they have a 180 degree view and in less snowy times it would look like this:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GOA low? Oh god!

[Deweydog]

What a menagerie of uselessness.

 

The pattern turns into a closet full of left shoes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile the GEM is marching to the beat of its own drum...

[Front Ranger]

Definitely going somewhere weird at hour 156.

[crf450ish]

This afternoon at work in Echo Lake, about an hour after the rain stopped.... the temp dropped significantly. Enough for me to grab another sweatshirt... at least the rain stopped.

[TT-SEA]

Well I guess you can consider that behemoth block shown on some past model runs to be nothing but a distant memory...

 

Yeah... the changes have been just crazy.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z CMC continues to show the possibility of a snow/ice storm for many of us Christmas Eve. Then it brings us close to a major Arctic blast days 9 and 10.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lots of potential tuesdsy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Kayla]

That GEM run 5 days ago would have turned this forum upside down! Tonight, business as usual...

[Jesse]

At least you can say the GEM has been consistent. GFS not so much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I would put no stock in the GEM.

[Deweydog]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say next Tuesday evening will not look like the GFS or CMC at hour 168.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Both models are similar at hour 174. CMC must have the two ridges merge and retrograde, though 500 mb patterni not out that far yet. Maybe GFS will too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least you can say the GEM has been consistent. GFS not so much.

 

Consistently awful...

 

Meanwhile the GFS is just trash in the mid-range.