Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Doesn't it go from approx Wichita to St. Joe? Are we talking about wave 1?Yeah I messed up. Not Wichita, but it goes from about Anthony, KS to St. Joe. That's actually more ridiculous. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 For what it's worth--Updated Heavy Snow Disco @ 355p CST...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...THE EJECTION OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS OUT OFTHE WESTERN U.S. BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAYWILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO ANDTHEN GRADUALLY LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST UP ALONG AN ARCTIC COLDFRONT SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES MOVING ALONGTHE COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BOTH THETIMING/AXIS/ORIENTATION OF PRECIP/SNOWFALL. THERE ARE CONTINUINGMODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES...SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLEBELOW NORMAL IDENTIFYING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND EMBEDDEDAMOUNTS.STRONGER DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCEALOFT SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL.SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PRECEDED BY POCKETS OF LIGHTICING/FREEZING RAIN IN THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEENRAIN AND SNOW AS IT GETS COLDER THROUGH THE COLUMN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Friday clipper looking like it could be decent for us and SD... Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 NWS has 5-9 in the pin forecast of my area... Talk about premature; hell this thing is still a day away from even coming on shore. Sure there is decent consensus of some snow here, but I feel some lower totals forecast and then going up/down as confidence increases would age better. We shall see; it is their job, not mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 NWS has 5-9 in the pin forecast of my area... Talk about premature; hell this thing is still a day away from even coming on shore. Sure there is decent consensus of some snow here, but I feel some lower totals forecast and then going up/down as confidence increases would age better. We shall see; it is their job, not mine. There's increased pressure from the public to release amounts. They should tell the public to wait. All I said on Twitter was that >3" somewhere is likely. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 25-35mph sustained winds are looking very possible. Snow will start out very wet, but temps both surface and aloft will drastically decrease so after an hour or so snow will turn into powder. Assuming 00z GFS is less unrealistic & it sticks to the guns it had before @ 12z, wouldn't be surprised to see OAX use a blizzard watch as the headline of choice. If I were them, I'd do a Winter Storm Watch. It really depends on who's at the desk at the time. By their wording, it looks like only those North of I-80 will be in a watch zone. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 From Omaha WFO: The presence of the coupled jet and the h5 low are forecast totrack toward central Kansas by 06Z. The storm has a 6 to 12hrperiod of lift with rain changing to snow. The Garcia method hasgeneral 3 to 4 g/kg specific humidity during this time and lift inthe dendritic growth zone. This points toward 4 to 8 inches ofsnow within a general area of 2 to 6 inches. The EC is a littleweaker with only 2 to 4 inches. There is instability nosing inahead of the rain to snow change and could see a period of sleet;possibly some thundersnow. With the instability and frontogenesiswould not be surprised to see a heavier band develop. Currentamounts have 1 to 6 inches of snow across the area a trace tothree inches along and south of I80 and 3 to 6 inches northwest ofI80. Higher amount from Columbus toward Mapleton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 I saw OAX had a mention of Thundersnow which is always exciting! 25-35mph sustained winds are looking very possible. Snow will start out very wet, but temps both surface and aloft will drastically decrease so after an hour or so snow will turn into powder. Assuming 00z GFS is less unrealistic & it sticks to the guns it had before @ 12z, wouldn't be surprised to see OAX use a blizzard watch as the headline of choice. If I were them, I'd do a Winter Storm Watch. It really depends on who's at the desk at the time. By their wording, it looks like only those North of I-80 will be in a watch zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 From Omaha WFO: The presence of the coupled jet and the h5 low are forecast totrack toward central Kansas by 06Z. The storm has a 6 to 12hrperiod of lift with rain changing to snow. The Garcia method hasgeneral 3 to 4 g/kg specific humidity during this time and lift inthe dendritic growth zone. This points toward 4 to 8 inches ofsnow within a general area of 2 to 6 inches. The EC is a littleweaker with only 2 to 4 inches. There is instability nosing inahead of the rain to snow change and could see a period of sleet;possibly some thundersnow. With the instability and frontogenesiswould not be surprised to see a heavier band develop. Currentamounts have 1 to 6 inches of snow across the area a trace tothree inches along and south of I80 and 3 to 6 inches northwest ofI80. Higher amount from Columbus toward Mapleton I hate how they word their amounts and they are never right when they do it this far out. They certainly seem to be thinking this thing will be further NW than what models have right now though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Maybe the UKIE can pull a coup? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Maybe the UKIE can pull a coup? ukmet_acc_precip_conus_84.pngNo. Mine. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 I hate how they word their amounts and they are never right when they do it this far out. They certainly seem to be thinking this thing will be further NW than what models have right now though.The I-80 thing was especially ignorant. Let's ignore the countless model runs that have suggested an even spread across the region, right? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 High-res NAM was way West at the end of the run. Not good. Snow doesn't even get to Clint's place till midnight. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Actually the 18Z NAM runs look pretty close to me. Not as bad as I thought it would be 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 18z Canadian http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Actually the 18Z NAM runs look pretty close to me. Not as bad as I thought it would be System is insanely NAMped up on both * slaps knee *. Definitely some thundersnow-like returns showing up. Gosh I hope it's right for once being this far out. Please give us 8"+, I'd be so happy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 and the highly anticipated JMA http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/accum/PR_000-120_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Yeah I didn't think to compare the NAMily. Looks good. Just watched Dean Wysocki's forecast. He showed all the model runs and said that it ultimately depends on who gets the band. He pointed out that areas outside the band got 1-2". I agree. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Wow every model is very different. This is going to be a hair pulling forecast for anyone on the air. Yikes. Two-Three days till the storm and its still uncertain on what exactly it does. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not going to lie, I really miss Jim Flower's FB posts, when he would deep dive into the dynamics of the system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not going to lie, I really miss Jim Flower's FB posts, when he would deep dive into the dynamics of the system. I agree. It was nice to have his point of view and detailed explanation. I ran across his FB profile somewhere, but it's not Jim Flowers anymore. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not going to lie, I really miss Jim Flower's FB posts, when he would deep dive into the dynamics of the system. Especially now because people have to refer to facebook pages like snow-day to get their info amirite? * high fives * Only kidding, I totally miss it too. It was always something to look forward to in between model runs. I wonder if he misses doing it at all. He got rinsed on his page whenever he was wrong, felt bad for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 Lol!! Fun Fact: I may or may not have helped make forecast maps for snow-day many moons ago! Craig, can you confirm?? Especially now because people have to refer to facebook pages like snow-day to get their info amirite? * high fives * Only kidding, I totally miss it too. It was always something to look forward to in between model runs. I wonder if he misses doing it at all. He got rinsed on his page whenever he was wrong, felt bad for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 8, 2018 Report Share Posted January 8, 2018 I agree. It was nice to have his point of view and detailed explanation. I ran across his FB profile somewhere, but it's not Jim Flowers anymore.He was posting comments on NWS in valley FB page this morning. He is under Jim Brian. I to wish he still had his page. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 glad im not invested in this low stress FTW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 https://youtu.be/9v1vI4Zl9Go Frankie's on the case. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 https://youtu.be/9v1vI4Zl9Go Frankie's on the case.you know its real when.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Frankie did one on the MPLS special last month.... he busted BIG time. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 SREF -- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 New SREF- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 New SREF-sref_namer_084_snow_total_mean.gif..likes Chicago (hugs) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam is awful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 NAM has some very heavy snow but very narrow band. Major bust potential if the NAM is close to right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z GFS could very well have been the beginning of the end for Nebraska... Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 bye bye northern wisco too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I don't get how both us and NW Iowa get a band of heavy snow, and we end up with one inch and they get almost 9? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam takes the secondary low into Indiana... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 D**n 0z NAM makes things even more unclear. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I really wouldn’t pay much attention to the NAM. It’s honestly the worst model there is. 3k nam is a little better but what model is worse than the NAM? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.