1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[Minny_Weather]

Doesn't it go from approx Wichita to St. Joe? Are we talking about wave 1?

Yeah I messed up. Not Wichita, but it goes from about Anthony, KS to St. Joe. That's actually more ridiculous.

[NH4NU]

For what it's worth--Updated Heavy Snow Disco @ 355p CST

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...THE EJECTION OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS OUT OFTHE WESTERN U.S. BY LATER WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAYWILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO ANDTHEN GRADUALLY LIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST UP ALONG AN ARCTIC COLDFRONT SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES MOVING ALONGTHE COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BOTH THETIMING/AXIS/ORIENTATION OF PRECIP/SNOWFALL.  THERE ARE CONTINUINGMODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CHANGES...SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLEBELOW NORMAL IDENTIFYING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND EMBEDDEDAMOUNTS.STRONGER DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH UPPER DIVERGENCEALOFT SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL.SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PRECEDED BY POCKETS OF LIGHTICING/FREEZING RAIN IN THE PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEENRAIN AND SNOW AS IT GETS COLDER THROUGH THE COLUMN. 

[Minny_Weather]

Friday clipper looking like it could be decent for us and SD...

[Stormgeek]

NWS has 5-9 in the pin forecast of my area... Talk about premature; hell this thing is still a day away from even coming on shore. Sure there is decent consensus of some snow here, but I feel some lower totals forecast and then going up/down as confidence increases would age better. We shall see; it is their job, not mine.

[Minny_Weather]

NWS has 5-9 in the pin forecast of my area... Talk about premature; hell this thing is still a day away from even coming on shore. Sure there is decent consensus of some snow here, but I feel some lower totals forecast and then going up/down as confidence increases would age better. We shall see; it is their job, not mine.

There's increased pressure from the public to release amounts. They should tell the public to wait. All I said on Twitter was that >3" somewhere is likely.

[Minny_Weather]

25-35mph sustained winds are looking very possible. Snow will start out very wet, but temps both surface and aloft will drastically decrease so after an hour or so snow will turn into powder. Assuming 00z GFS is less unrealistic & it sticks to the guns it had before @ 12z, wouldn't be surprised to see OAX use a blizzard watch as the headline of choice. If I were them, I'd do a Winter Storm Watch. It really depends on who's at the desk at the time. By their wording, it looks like only those North of I-80 will be in a watch zone.

[NEJeremy]

From Omaha WFO:

 

The presence of the coupled jet and the h5 low are forecast to
track toward central Kansas by 06Z. The storm has a 6 to 12hr
period of lift with rain changing to snow. The Garcia method has
general 3 to 4 g/kg specific humidity during this time and lift in
the dendritic growth zone. This points toward 4 to 8 inches of
snow within a general area of 2 to 6 inches. The EC is a little
weaker with only 2 to 4 inches. There is instability nosing in
ahead of the rain to snow change and could see a period of sleet;
possibly some thundersnow. With the instability and frontogenesis
would not be surprised to see a heavier band develop. Current
amounts have 1 to 6 inches of snow across the area a trace to
three inches along and south of I80 and 3 to 6 inches northwest of
I80. Higher amount from Columbus toward Mapleton

[NH4NU]

I saw OAX had a mention of Thundersnow which is always exciting! 

 

 

25-35mph sustained winds are looking very possible. Snow will start out very wet, but temps both surface and aloft will drastically decrease so after an hour or so snow will turn into powder. Assuming 00z GFS is less unrealistic & it sticks to the guns it had before @ 12z, wouldn't be surprised to see OAX use a blizzard watch as the headline of choice. If I were them, I'd do a Winter Storm Watch. It really depends on who's at the desk at the time. By their wording, it looks like only those North of I-80 will be in a watch zone.

[Jaycee]

From Omaha WFO:

 

The presence of the coupled jet and the h5 low are forecast to

track toward central Kansas by 06Z. The storm has a 6 to 12hr

period of lift with rain changing to snow. The Garcia method has

general 3 to 4 g/kg specific humidity during this time and lift in

the dendritic growth zone. This points toward 4 to 8 inches of

snow within a general area of 2 to 6 inches. The EC is a little

weaker with only 2 to 4 inches. There is instability nosing in

ahead of the rain to snow change and could see a period of sleet;

possibly some thundersnow. With the instability and frontogenesis

would not be surprised to see a heavier band develop. Current

amounts have 1 to 6 inches of snow across the area a trace to

three inches along and south of I80 and 3 to 6 inches northwest of

I80. Higher amount from Columbus toward Mapleton

 

I hate how they word their amounts and they are never right when they do it this far out. They certainly seem to be thinking this thing will be further NW than what models have right now though.

[Grizzcoat]

Maybe the UKIE can pull a coup?

 

[Minny_Weather]

Maybe the UKIE can pull a coup?

 

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_84.png

No. Mine.

[Minny_Weather]

I hate how they word their amounts and they are never right when they do it this far out. They certainly seem to be thinking this thing will be further NW than what models have right now though.

The I-80 thing was especially ignorant. Let's ignore the countless model runs that have suggested an even spread across the region, right?

[Minny_Weather]

High-res NAM was way West at the end of the run. Not good. Snow doesn't even get to Clint's place till midnight.

[NEJeremy]

Actually the 18Z NAM runs look pretty close to me. Not as bad as I thought it would be

[bud2380]

18z Canadian

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif

[Jaycee]

Actually the 18Z NAM runs look pretty close to me. Not as bad as I thought it would be

 

System is insanely NAMped up on both * slaps knee *. Definitely some thundersnow-like returns showing up. Gosh I hope it's right for once being this far out. Please give us 8"+, I'd be so happy.

[bud2380]

and the highly anticipated JMA

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/accum/PR_000-120_0000.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I didn't think to compare the NAMily. Looks good. Just watched Dean Wysocki's forecast. He showed all the model runs and said that it ultimately depends on who gets the band. He pointed out that areas outside the band got 1-2". I agree.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow every model is very different. This is going to be a hair pulling forecast for anyone on the air. Yikes. Two-Three days till the storm and its still uncertain on what exactly it does. 

[NH4NU]

Not going to lie, I really miss Jim Flower's FB posts, when he would deep dive into the dynamics of the system. 

[NEJeremy]

Not going to lie, I really miss Jim Flower's FB posts, when he would deep dive into the dynamics of the system. 

I agree. It was nice to have his point of view and detailed explanation. I ran across his FB profile somewhere, but it's not Jim Flowers anymore.

[Jaycee]

Not going to lie, I really miss Jim Flower's FB posts, when he would deep dive into the dynamics of the system. 

 

Especially now because people have to refer to facebook pages like snow-day to get their info amirite? * high fives *

 

 

Only kidding, I totally miss it too. It was always something to look forward to in between model runs. I wonder if he misses doing it at all. He got rinsed on his page whenever he was wrong, felt bad for him.

[NH4NU]

Lol!!

 

Fun Fact: I may or may not have helped make forecast maps for snow-day many moons ago! Craig, can you confirm?? 

 

 

Especially now because people have to refer to facebook pages like snow-day to get their info amirite? * high fives *

 

 

Only kidding, I totally miss it too. It was always something to look forward to in between model runs. I wonder if he misses doing it at all. He got rinsed on his page whenever he was wrong, felt bad for him.

[Andrew NE]

I agree. It was nice to have his point of view and detailed explanation. I ran across his FB profile somewhere, but it's not Jim Flowers anymore.

He was posting comments on NWS in valley FB page this morning. He is under Jim Brian. I to wish he still had his page.

[Snowlover76]

glad im not invested in this

 

 

low stress FTW 

[Minny_Weather]

https://youtu.be/9v1vI4Zl9Go

 

Frankie's on the case.

[Snowlover76]

https://youtu.be/9v1vI4Zl9Go

 

Frankie's on the case.

you know its real when.... 

[Grizzcoat]

Frankie did one on the MPLS special last month.... he busted BIG time.

[Grizzcoat]

SREF --

[Grizzcoat]

New SREF-

[Snowlover76]

ew 

[jaster220]

New SREF-sref_namer_084_snow_total_mean.gif

..likes Chicago (hugs)

[Money]

Nam is awful

[bud2380]

NAM has some very heavy snow but very narrow band. Major bust potential if the NAM is close to right.

[snowstorm83]

18z GFS could very well have been the beginning of the end for Nebraska...

[Madtown]

bye bye northern wisco too!

[Minny_Weather]

I don't get how both us and NW Iowa get a band of heavy snow, and we end up with one inch and they get almost 9?

[Money]

Nam takes the secondary low into Indiana...

[Craig-OmahaWX]

D**n 0z NAM makes things even more unclear. 

[bud2380]

I really wouldn’t pay much attention to the NAM. It’s honestly the worst model there is. 3k nam is a little better but what model is worse than the NAM?