1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[Madtown]

That's one big f u on the euro.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is back to square one. This is why I hate Europeans.

[St Paul Storm]

Good read from MPX on the first wave:

PWATs in the 0.5-0.75 inch range; a broad area of strong 700-500

mb frontogenesis and negative omega throughout a very deep layer

(900-300 mb); and the DGZ collocated with the max area of

frontogenesis and omega should maintain a well developed, potentially

intense deformation band. Model consensus has it organizing from

southwest to central MN Wednesday night, and holding it together

as it shifts slowly eastward Thursday. With the steepening lapse

rates at the surface and temperatures cooling into the single

digits/teens, could see a secondary DGZ develop down low to

enhance snowfall rates further.

 

For now, the forecast calls for a large area of 4-7 inches

virtually across the entire CWA due to the model blend. However,

it is likely some areas will be hit harder than that and amounts

could go up there when confidence increases further with the

spatial placement of the deformation band. The 00Z NAM, GFS, and

ECMWF total QPF exceeds 1/2 inch west of an area from Mankato to

the Twin Cities and maxes out between 3/4-1 inch from southwest MN

to northwest WI. This may shift west or east though, so cannot

commit to higher snowfall amounts for probably a couple more

forecast cycles.

[Tom]

Euro is back to square one. This is why I hate Europeans.

For realz???  

[Minny_Weather]

For realz???

Nah. Just the ones who invented the model.

[Minny_Weather]

Just looked at the issue. We get slotted on Euro. Figures. I'd rather have it show us being slotted than have us North or something. Being slotted is a more run-to-run thing.

[Tom]

GEFS trends for the weekend system have been slower/stronger...

 

 

[gosaints]

 

More right than left... Its squarely GFS versus EURO

[Grizzcoat]

Gut feeling. System lays down snow well N of most on this sub forum. Ice and rain otherwise. Hopefully I'am wrong.

[Snowshoe]

If Iowa could go ahead and keep their snowdome out of Wisconsin that would be great.

 

This winter's Michigan jackpot zone could win again.

 

[Andrew NE]

I was surprised to see OAX come out even with preliminary totals overnight, I feel as if there is still plenty to iron out.  I would understand if we were talking about a monster snowstorm, but a 3"-4" snow still 3 days out seems a little over kill to me.  I feel like in the past it would set up as follows. Today 3"-4", Tuesday 2"-3", Wednesday down to 1"-2" and Thursday morning

[St Paul Storm]

06z GEFS snow plumes have a mean of about 4”, but most are actually above the mean. There are a few duds pulling the mean way down. The ensembles are trending towards the deterministic run.

[Minny_Weather]

I was surprised to see OAX come out even with preliminary totals overnight, I feel as if there is still plenty to iron out. I would understand if we were talking about a monster snowstorm, but a 3"-4" snow still 3 days out seems a little over kill to me. I feel like in the past it would set up as follows. Today 3"-4", Tuesday 2"-3", Wednesday down to 1"-2" and Thursday morning

I'm refusing to do anything on my Twitter till a couple days out. I just said >3" amounts are possible.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm not sure why NAM is so bullish in Central Nebraska then gets lamer over here. I get we're gonna go thru a changeover, but it just turns into crap here despite us getting moderate snowfall for over 6 hours according to it.

[Tom]

12z NAM looks better for NE peeps...less of a warm tongue out ahead of the SLP...

[Tom]

Sweet band over OMA...6"+ in 3 hours...

[Tom]

Well that was an interesting run for E NE up into the Twin cities....weenie band central for those snow starved folks in NE/MN...

[Andrew NE]

Talk about threading the needle. I don't like that this far out!

[CentralNebWeather]

My area of Central Nebraska went from 16 inches to 0 from 0Z NAM to 12Z NAM.  Hard to trust these and why I no longer get excited until the snow is actually falling.

[james1976]

Well that was an interesting run for E NE up into the Twin cities....weenie band central for those snow starved folks in NE/MN...

Thats a narrow band.

Bit more SE like GFS tho

[St Paul Storm]

Well that was an interesting run for E NE up into the Twin cities....weenie band central for those snow starved folks in NE/MN...

Sign me up and lock it in. I’ll take even half of that.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is a tease oh my god.

[Minny_Weather]

LOL OAX says blizzard conditions won't be met. I get the snow actually falling from the sky won't be heavy, but whatever is on the ground will be picked up like a toy with sustained winds around 35mph and gusts around 45. I think impacts will be pretty great even after the snow stops falling if we get 3" or more.

[Money]

LOL OAX says blizzard conditions won't be met. I get the snow actually falling from the sky won't be heavy, but whatever is on the ground will be picked up like a toy with sustained winds around 35mph and gusts around 45. I think impacts will be pretty great even after the snow stops falling if we get 3" or more.

Wet snow doesn’t blow easy

[Minny_Weather]

Wet snow doesn’t blow easy

Temp will be dropping rapidly. By the end, it'll be fluff.

[Jaycee]

 I want to be excited, but the goddamn EURO though.... ugh. Why. Why does it do this.

[Snowlover76]

 I want to be excited, but the goddamn EURO though.... ugh. Why. Why does it do this.

If i was making a forecast Id go with the least snowy.  Thats usually how it always will pan out 

[jaster220]

I would say, nearly 75% of the 51 EPS members have a big juicy cutter for the lower lakes/OV.  If 12z guidance continues this threat, I'll start a separate thread.

 

Ofc, the day I'm away from the boards/models everything starts popping!     

 

Have to hand it to ya buddy, you've stuck with the LRC/Seasonal outlook stuff longer than I've been willing to. Things don't always follow our (my) script and seeing the EC and then the Plains getting warned events/blizzards really set my mood back a good bit on how this winter was going to play out. 0z Euro tho said "hold the phone" on this pessimism!  

 

Could this week/end be the B-2-Back storms you've been prognosticating now for some time??? 

[hlcater]

MI better get another storm while those west of the lakes continue to starve. Jesus this hurts.

[centralweather44]

This doesn’t even make landfall until tonight if I’m correct? Not trusting anything until tonight’s runs.

[gosaints]

This doesn’t even make landfall until tonight if I’m correct? Not trusting anything until tonight’s runs.

Actually more like tomorrow nights 0z runs

[Minny_Weather]

Actually more like tomorrow nights 0z runs

Yeah it's gonna be farting around off the CA coast for a while.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010812/078/snku_acc.us_c.png

[james1976]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010812/078/snku_acc.us_c.png

Thats all sorts of weird

[Tom]

12z GFS not budging and still thinks the weekend storm heads east...

[St Paul Storm]

2m temps in the -20s again in parts of MN after wave 1. My furnace crapped out yesterday...fortunately between arctic outbreaks. Phew.

[jaster220]

MI better get another storm while those west of the lakes continue to starve. Jesus this hurts.

 

At least Niko's not in here yet tossing it in everybody's face..

[Iowawx]

Well, looks like theres a chance only far eastern MI gets weekend storm. Looking like a rain to snow event here, still hoping for a last minute shift to the east.

[hlcater]

At least Niko's not in here yet tossing it in everybody's face..

Might as well be. These past 3 winters have been god awful. My patience regarding big storms doing everything in their power to skip Iowa is thinning rather quickly. Can't remember my last 6" storm. Really pathetic we can't even manage that over 3 years—when I'm pretty sure we average 2 of those in a normal season.

 

No, the system 1.5 weeks ago doesn't count as that was only a 5.5" system and I don't think the airport recorded 6" either. Good prospects just haven't existed out here the last several seasons. And trust me, when we do get a "good" system it will either trend to give us rain, or shear out into nothing.

[bud2380]

GFS has a follow up clipper on Friday that dies out as it reaches Eastern Iowa.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010812/120/snku_024h.us_mw.png