1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[Minny_Weather]

I'm thinking OAX is gonna issue the new products to replace the watch during tomorrow morning's package. Sitting on the edge of my chair till then. They're normally not afraid to issue warnings when things are borderline.

[St Paul Storm]

Give me my 4-6” from the 3km and let me cash in my chips. Enough is enough.

[gosaints]

Lol at the back and forth between models

How much do you have on the season?

 

[Jaycee]

I'm thinking OAX is gonna issue the new products to replace the watch during tomorrow morning's package. Sitting on the edge of my chair till then. They're normally not afraid to issue warnings when things are borderline.

 

Cant say I’ve ever seen the EURO and NAM agree on such a narrow band like this. Man that’s a nice map! Get ready to make that snow p3nis in snow lovers yard if that comes true!

[NEJeremy]

I think the NAM is counting sleet in the forecasted precip type in with snow accumulations so it is jacking things up on the amounts for some areas.

[St Paul Storm]

I think the NAM is counting sleet in the forecasted precip type in with snow accumulations so it is jacking things up on the amounts for some areas.

Depends on the map you’re using.

[gosaints]

Depends on the map you’re using.

Kuchera can do a shotty job with warm midlevels as well.  Havent looked close enough to see if it is in this case or not.  Not worth it now anyways to far away.

[Minny_Weather]

I think the NAM is counting sleet in the forecasted precip type in with snow accumulations so it is jacking things up on the amounts for some areas.

It's showing about 9" here, I'll gladly take 7" if that's the case.

[gabel23]

Here's the new NWS forecasted snow amounts. This thing has changed like a 100 times!! If this holds serve I would gladly take 3-4" for my area. 

[gabel23]

Crazy narrow band of 4-6". 

[St Paul Storm]

Kuchera can do a shotty job with warm midlevels as well. Havent looked close enough to see if it is in this case or not. Not worth it now anyways to far away.

No doubt. Kuchera has its flaws, but it’s better than 10:1,especially with this event and temps dropping like a friggin rock.

[NEJeremy]

Kuchera can do a shotty job with warm midlevels as well.  Havent looked close enough to see if it is in this case or not.  Not worth it now anyways to far away.

 

Here's a "sleet sounding" according to ptype map from weather.cod.edu. seems pretty marginal, would almost bet on snow with this sounding.

[NEJeremy]

Here's the new NWS forecasted snow amounts. This thing has changed like a 100 times!! If this holds serve I would gladly take 3-4" for my area. 

Isn't it kind of crazy, how we're almost begging/excited for 3-4" of snow? Goes to show how crappy things have been for so long.

[Stormgeek]

Stormgeek losing his mind right now.

This could not be more accurate! At least things are staying exciting.

[NEJeremy]

OAX continuing the WS Watch for 2-5" of snow. Watch end time has been extended until 6p on Thursday now as well. Starts at 6p Wednesday, which I have NO idea how they came up with that time. It's not going to be snowing here until after 3a Thursday morning.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX continuing the WS Watch for 2-5" of snow. Watch end time has been extended until 6p on Thursday now as well. Starts at 6p Wednesday, which I have NO idea how they came up with that time. It's not going to be snowing here until after 3a Thursday morning.

I'd start it at midnight. Flash freezing will be an issue.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX going a general 2-4” with localized amounts up to 7”. Minor ice accretion as well with gusts to 30 mph. Let’s do it. I’ve been tracking this thing way too long

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings has went with a Winter Weather Advisory.  They are saying 1-3 inches.  Who the heck knows what will happen.  They say 9 PM Wednesday until Noon on Thursday.  Hope it is more but beggars can't be choosers at this point.  

[gabel23]

NWS Hastings has went with a Winter Weather Advisory.  They are saying 1-3 inches.  Who the heck knows what will happen.  They say 9 PM Wednesday until Noon on Thursday.  Hope it is more but beggars can't be choosers at this point.  

Far Eastern Counties, including mine, is still in the WSW. I could see either all of use going into a WWA or possibly some areas going into a warning. Time will tell, just give us 2-4. 

[Snowlover76]

I think this ends up being 3-4" here.

[Minny_Weather]

18Z GFS is way too light on the snow (or sleet) right after the changeover. Not to mention 18Z GFS runs have been bad for us all this process.

[Jaycee]

Screw the NWS. I don't care what they say-- they did this same thing last year, when they predicted 1-3" for some parts of Western Nebraska who ended up getting 17". This is also reminiscent of the storm in March of 2007-- heavy snow was going to miss us, so 1-3" prediction, woke up to 18". I think someone gets leveled and they're going to fall flat on their face.

[Madtown]

18z way south/east

[snowstorm83]

18z now has the heavy snow band outside of the WSW area...LOL

[NEJeremy]

18Z GFS furthest southeast yet. Actually has Omaha and Lincoln on the very western edge of the heavier band now.

[St Paul Storm]

18z GFS says gosaints in da money. Reel it in man.

[Madtown]

all in on that run! Braaaap

[Minny_Weather]

18z now has the heavy snow band outside of the WSW area...LOL

The WSW area makes absolutely no sense. I guess it does if you remember the fact that OAX has always had a hard-on for Northeast NE.

[jaster220]

Just one interpretation, but at least y'all are going to see synoptic snowfall. Looks like I'll get rain followed by a possible flizzard

 

[Jaycee]

RGEM sucks but it looks super juicy, some parts of NC KS get 22". This is going to be a hell of a snowstorm for someone, I can feel it.

[Minny_Weather]

RGEM sucks but it looks super juicy, some parts of NC KS get 22". This is going to be a hell of a snowstorm for someone, I can feel it.

Yeah RGEM has been having a Kansas boner so far.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX still hasn't released their AFD. Maybe they actually looked at 12Z models like they usually don't before the afternoon forecast.

[Jaycee]

OAX still hasn't released their AFD. Maybe they actually looked at 12Z models like they usually don't before the afternoon forecast.

 

If they were honest, they'd start the discussion with "sorry, just got done cleaning out my pants that I just pooped after seeing the NAM/GFS vs. our predictions" but it will probably be something about how Norfolk is actually the jackpot and how heavy accumulations of 4-6" are possible there and 1-3" along and north of I-80 but less expected from a line of Lincoln to Hastings stay tuned lulz type of garbage they usually spew.

[Minny_Weather]

If they were honest, they'd start the discussion with "sorry, just got done cleaning out my pants that I just pooped after seeing the NAM/GFS vs. our predictions" but it will probably be something about how Norfolk is actually the jackpot and how heavy accumulations of 4-6" are possible there and 1-3" along and north of I-80 but less expected from a line of Lincoln to Hastings stay tuned lulz type of garbage they usually spew.

"Think highest amounts will be around 2", however recent guidance suggests lowering totals so will cancel the watch and just not issue a headline lol"

[Jaycee]

"Think highest amounts will be around 2", however recent guidance suggests lowering totals so will cancel the watch and just not issue a headline lol"

 

AFD Long-Term Discussion:

 

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[Grizzcoat]

Dmx expands WSW few counties E.

[bud2380]

hey another 100 miles east shift and I'm in the game. LOL.  That was a dramatic shift easy by the GFS this late in the game.  

[Grizzcoat]

1 cty away here from WSW. My luck is that it misses to the East....

[bud2380]

Looks like the 18z GEM came further east too.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Lol... Okay now let's not go too East.