1/10 - 1/11 Possible Severe Frontal Passage with intense snow showers

[St Paul Storm]

it was a NWS MET -- I will post it now that I'am on desktop

 

 

http://www.startribune.com/springlike-warmth-today-plowable-snow-and-cold-by-wednesday-night/468434923/?om_rid=1581381065&om_mid=68180425

Thought you meant they were saying no snow at all. That’s not the case obviously.

[Jaycee]

must be some sort of issue with mixing, the snow band setup is the same, it’s just broken into sections. And ya know, moves 600 miles in an hour so

 

 

OAX needs to get its act together. Put all of Eastern Neb in a watch my god, what an embarrassment

[gosaints]

Twin cities pound town

[CentralNebWeather]

NAM has me at .2. Of course it does. Amazing.

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Certainly an E trend in NE and IA

[St Paul Storm]

I’m between the 6.2 and the 12.2 on that Kuchera map. Sign me up. I’m riding the NAM til I crash and burn.

[Money]

Twin cities pound town

Looks decent for you

[centralweather44]

Certainly an E trend in NE and IA

 

For sure. If it trends much further east in the next run or two and us here in lincoln aren’t going to end up with much at all

[gosaints]

must be some sort of issue with mixing, the snow band setup is the same, it’s just broken into sections. And ya know, moves 600 miles in an hour so

 

 

OAX needs to get its act together. Put all of Eastern Neb in a watch my god, what an embarrassment

It's an elongated area of low pressure that's why it appears to move that fast on the model.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Probably going to find out tomorrow night if sleet will be an issue for a couple hours. If it isn't just tack on a couple more inches. But NAM looks good to me and also the 4km as well.

[Minny_Weather]

The data on that NAM was messed up. There's no real reasoning behind the dry air then sudden boom in precip within 3 hours tomorrow night. I'm believing more what the 3km NAM is showing, filling that area of dry air with rain.

[Jaycee]

4K NAM looks good through 33 hr

[gosaints]

Looks decent for you

Creeping closer. Who knows. I would rather be northwest of here. Fickle set up though and whoever gets the goods is threading the needle.

[Money]

The data on that NAM was messed up. There's no real reasoning behind the dry air then sudden boom in precip within 3 hours tomorrow night. I'm believing more what the 3km NAM is showing, filling that area of dry air with rain.

Why do you think the data was bad?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

4km NAM only has about an hours worth of sleet so its not really a big deal.

[Minny_Weather]

Why do you think the data was bad?

Random a** dry slot. I don't think dry air will be a big factor in this one. Not a wishcast by the way, it'd be rain while we would be in the slot.

[gosaints]

Gonna be some snow weenie meltdowns with this one. Models aren't gonna ace 50-75 mile wide bands of heavy snow.

[Minny_Weather]

4K NAM looks good through 33 hr

AGH THAT BAND IS STILL SO TERRIFYINGLY THIN.

[St Paul Storm]

3km hammers the metro is looks like.

[Money]

Gonna be some snow weenie meltdowns with this one. Models aren't gonna ace 50-75 mile wide bands of heavy snow.

Plus with temps really warm before hand and you’re gonna lose some accumulation that way as well

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna be some snow weenie meltdowns with this one. Models aren't gonna ace 50-75 mile wide bands of heavy snow.

Nope. No chance. Nowcast for sure.

[Jaycee]

Oh my god

 

[St Paul Storm]

2m temps drop from 32 to 20 here in 3 hours.

[Minny_Weather]

Ground temps/air temps before won't play a HUGE factor here as rain is gonna flash freeze. Plus the ground is still frozen anyway. That'll make a nice place for snow to accumulate on.

[Money]

Ground temps/prelim air temps before won't play a HUGE factor here as rain is gonna flash freeze. Plus the ground is still frozen anyway. That'll make a nice place for snow to accumulate on.

You’ll see. Don’t be shocked when I’m right

[Minny_Weather]

You’ll see. Don’t be shocked when I’m right

Lol yes sir. Ratios won't be awesome but it'll get better.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018011000/048/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Minny_Weather]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018011000/048/snku_acc.us_c.png

Who here is ready for a sudden shift East?!

[NH4NU]

Wow--Has Omaha at 9" by Saturday morning!

[gosaints]

Who here is ready for a sudden shift East?!

I would welcome it

[Minny_Weather]

I would welcome it

Ew no. You took enough of our snow last year

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Definitely feel a little uneasy with a band that narrow...the heart of that goes right through my backyard with 8-10 lol

[Money]

Lol yes sir. Ratios won't be awesome but it'll get better.

Rain to snow changeovers almost always take longer than models predict.

[Money]

Also IWM snow cover is way less generous than Kuchera maps.

 

Those maps have you guys in the 3-4 range

[Money]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018011000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066You

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Money what location do you reside in? Just curious 

[Minny_Weather]

Rain to snow changeovers almost always take longer than models predict.

The changeover is happening here right at about the freezing mark, so surface temps don't worry me. What does worry me is that after it stops sleeting and it's snow, there will still be warm air aloft. My main concern is that combined with wind seriously screwing with ratios. That is the ONE thing that I can see going wrong once we get to all snow. Besides the obvious factor of who's getting the band.

[Money]

I would welcome it

Rooting for you and SPS

[gosaints]

Rgem should make those in Omaha happy.