February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

That pattern late next week is full of huge potential.  If you take a blend of the ICON and GFS things get really interesting.

 

 

Hopefully it can trend east like every other block does in March!

[BLI snowman]

Tim spends at least 85% of his snow events inside looking for the back edge on the radar.

[TT-SEA]

Tim spends at least 85% of his snow events inside looking for the back edge on the radar.

 

This is completely false in November and December and even January.   

 

My son and I spend hours watching every update of the radar hoping for back-filling! 

 

I only lose interest once we get into February.  

[snow_wizard]

Talk about perfect timing!  Clear all night and then rapidly thickening clouds during the day.  Not going to get very warm today.

[Geos]

I'm not the best at remembering dates for events but I do remember an event, probably a few years back, where NWS forecast a fairly quick switchover to rain for most places per what the models were showing but the cold air held on much longer than anticipated, especially in the Cascade foothills where 4+ inches fell and it continued long past what they were expecting.

 

Not saying that situation will happen here but it comes to mind.

 

Sounds like a situation where they underestimated the depth of the cold.

[snow_wizard]

That would be amazing if something like that happened next week. Still within the realm of possibility even in our warm climate lol

 

With that low in play now anything is possible.  Amazingly the GFS tracks the low straight westward after it gets just north of us and it never really warms up behind the low.  The ICON brings a Canadian air mass right to the border around the same time.

[snow_wizard]

Sounds like a situation where they underestimated the depth of the cold.

 

Given the fact the models usually scour cold air out too quickly I like where we are at right now.

[ShawniganLake]

Very light snow coming down here.

What’s your temp. Looks like most of Victoria shot up into the mid 30’s already.

[Front Ranger]

They should do fine today.

 

Agreed.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF continues to be frustratingly dry today.  Makes no sense (high bust potential).  It does look promising for snow showers later Sunday though.

[Canadian guy]

What’s your temp. Looks like most of Victoria shot up into the mid 30’s already.

I'm at work now so I'm not sure but when I left my house 45 minutes ago it was 34. I'm not expecting anything today or this weekend here. I'm liking the looks of late next week though for potentially something. What are your thoughts on next week up here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Given the fact the models usually scour cold air out too quickly I like where we are at right now.

Big difference in south wind and sw also as far as bringing in warm air in.

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF continues to be frustratingly dry today.  Makes no sense (high bust potential).  It does look promising for snow showers later Sunday though.

 

The WRF has been really stingy recently. I'm pretty sure it busted the other day when SE King and Pierce got decent snowfall. 

[TT-SEA]

Are you really still salty from yesterday?

 

Let it go, man. Move on... just like everyone else has.

 

 

Right... until I make another post about something that interests me a week into the future and then will be attacked all over again.   

 

Everyone treats snow obsession anxiety as the most important thing in the world and people must have their feelings protected... but dry weather anxiety is mocked and trolled endlessly!   Both probably feel the same to the individual though.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Evil.

 

This post destroys everything that will happen in the 10 days before that time. You have just ruined everything and seem to take joy in it.

 

No one will be able to enjoy their snow and cold now. Why did you do this?

Good morning sir!

[HighlandExperience]

Talk about perfect timing!  Clear all night and then rapidly thickening clouds during the day.  Not going to get very warm today.

 

Good thing those clouds came in quick. The sun angle would have worked against us. Lets hope the southerlies don't kill us today. 

[TT-SEA]

The WRF continues to be frustratingly dry today.  Makes no sense (high bust potential).  It does look promising for snow showers later Sunday though.

 

Too warm or too dry?

 

It will probably be too dry in this situation.  

[Geos]

Given the fact the models usually scour cold air out too quickly I like where we are at right now.

 

Definitely.

 

And with all the snow potential coming up... #backloadedwinter

[HighlandExperience]

Too warm or too dry?

 

It will probably be too dry in this situation.  

 

Ya I am not liking how dry this situation is. Pretty sucky that we couldn't get more moisture with this. We have about 7 days of winter left. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Temps rising quickly here today. I was actually surprised when I got home how little snow was left as about 70 to 80% was melted yesterday. Already up to 30 from a low of 21. I know some may disagree but I feel based on a number of factors shadowing will be pretty strong at my location for this round. I do not expect much at all. I am fine with that BTW. Hope everyone does well though!

[FroYoBro]

There is no way I see snow sticking today. Not sure about that NWS forecast.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely.

 

And with all the snow potential coming up... #backloadedwinter

 

This is the most extreme example of a back-loaded winter that I can remember.    I have heard about them many times but never really understood it until now.  

 

I would have been in heaven with this extended cold and snowy pattern in December.  

[TT-SEA]

Temps rising quickly here today. I was actually surprised when I got home how little snow was left as about 70 to 80% was melted yesterday. Already up to 30 from a low of 21. I know some may disagree but I feel based on a number of factors shadowing will be pretty strong at my location for this round. I do not expect much at all. I am fine with that BTW. Hope everyone does well though!

 

Was it cold in Monterey?  

[Front Ranger]

Evil.

 

This post destroys everything that will happen in the 10 days before that time.    You have just ruined everything and seem to take joy in it.    

 

No one will be able to enjoy their snow and cold now.   Why did you do this? 

 

Not the same, dude. Sorry.

[snow_wizard]

Ya I am not liking how dry this situation is. Pretty sucky that we couldn't get more moisture with this. We have about 7 days of winter left. 

 

Let's just wait and see.  We will have WSW flow at the 850mb level like we did on Wednesday.  For some reason the models seem to not think that's a big deal.

[MossMan]

Up to 23!

Looks like snow clouds out there...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, I guess that's a no to the whole 'let it go' thing...

After you have been tarred and feathered it is pretty hard to let it go'. Honestly, people on here are pretty harsh and often their own biases and hurt forecasting feelings and hopes cause some odd reactions Specially when someone does jump on the band wagon. It is so odd to me, but I guess it is a result of group think and the cultural shift of if you do not say what I like I am either going to ignore you or bash you. Sad, but true. 

[snow_wizard]

Not sure how people can say this area busted when it hasn't happened yet.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Was it cold in Monterey?  

It was chilly lows in the upper 30's to low 40's highs in the mid 50's.. With the wind there I had a jacket on the whole time when outside. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty incredible to have it 26 degrees at mid morning in late February!

[MossMan]

Not sure how people can say this area busted when it hasn't happened yet.

So true! As I found out last weekend you can only rely on the models so much. None showed me getting 13” in fact some showed me getting nothing.

[Front Ranger]

This is the most extreme example of a back-loaded winter that I can remember.    I have heard about them many times but never really understood it until now.  

 

I would have been in heaven with this extended cold and snowy pattern in December.  

 

At least you didn't go to Hawaii in December?

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty incredible to have it 26 degrees at mid morning in late February!

 

IF this was January it would be 22 degrees right now. 

[TT-SEA]

Not the same, dude. Sorry.

I was exaggerating for fun... but it is actually the same. Everyone is tracking cold and snow and he is talking about it warming up in 10 days. Nobody cares about that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The situation with Tim is far different than people getting butthurt over a forecast busting or not agreeing with what he says.

 

You know that, he knows that, and everyone else knows that. Hence my encouragement to just move on and turn a new leaf.

Thankfully by spring time there will be plenty of "new Leaf's" for all of us...   

[snow_wizard]

Sunday evening would be a good time to score with a fresh shot of cold air moving in.  Still many chances after today.

[TT-SEA]

So true! As I found out last weekend you can only rely on the models so much. None showed me getting 13” in fact some showed me getting nothing.

And just Wednesday night was a surprise.

[snow_wizard]

I just noticed on the ensemble graph the 850s only spike to -5 before falling again tonight.  When -5 is a spike we are really cold!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jaya, Make it snow...

[MossMan]

This morning at 16 degrees. The dogs have sure enjoyed the snow and cold!