March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It has definitely been a strange progression this year. I thought the same thing in late January and early February and then everything completely stalled for almost a month.

 

I think we are on a normal pace now. But it will stall again for probably a week after Tuesday.

Sounds about right.

[Phil]

For accuracy... here is the precip anomaly over the last 3 years. This site only goes back 3 years but this is more important that what happened 4 and 5 years ago.

 

And it excludes 2014 which was a very wet year up here.

 

The CA drought situation over the last 5 years has coincided with the very wet conditions in WA. They are related.

 

Regionally speaking, you’ve been in a wet winter, dry summer background regime since 2013. That is changing now, I believe.

[TT-SEA]

Regionally speaking, you’ve been in a wet winter/dry summer regime since 2013. That should change shortly.

 

Summer precip is so erratic here.   You can't really forecast it.

 

We can have cool, cloudy, troughy summers that are quite dry statistically... and we can have very wet summers that are sunny and warm overall.  

[Front Ranger]

Warm season precip is not that critical in the big picture.

 

And you can have a month like August 2015 which was very wet up here and yet it was still a very sunny month.

 

You can have a wet summer with just a few big rain events mixed in with weeks of dry weather.  

 

Sure. But you are due for a wetter than normal warm season.

[Phil]

Summer precip is so erratic here. You can't really forecast it.

 

We can have cool, cloudy, troughy summers that are quite dry statistically... and we can have very wet summers that are sunny and warm overall.

But the bookends (fall/spring) can tell the tale. Even if precip totals themselves are statistically inconsequential come JJA.

[TT-SEA]

But the bookends (fall/spring) can tell the tale.

 

Well... we had the wettest Feb - April ever just last year.  

 

And we had the wettest October ever in 2016.

[Phil]

Well... we had the wettest spring ever just last year.

 

And we had the wettest October ever in 2016.

Yeah, you’ve been troughy/wet during the cool season and warm/dry during the warm season, which is a theme in most +PDO/+NAM periods like the one we just left.

 

The inverse (troughy summers, retracted Pacific Jet during winter) is associated with a -PDO/-NAM in the background.

[Front Ranger]

Summer precip is so erratic here.   You can't really forecast it.

 

We can have cool, cloudy, troughy summers that are quite dry statistically... and we can have very wet summers that are sunny and warm overall.  

 

That's true, but more the exception than the rule, especially for the warm season overall. See 2010, 2001, 1993, 1983, 1968, 1954, etc.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, you’ve been troughy/wet during the cool season and warm/dry during the warm season, which is a theme in most +PDO/+NAM periods like the one we just left.

 

The inverse (troughy summers, retracted Pacific Jet during winter) is associated with a -PDO/-NAM in the background.

 

A troughy spring and summer does not mean wet.    It does not even always mean cool around here as we saw in months like July 2016.   

[Phil]

A troughy spring and summer does not mean wet. It does not even always mean cool around here as we saw in months like July 2016.

Well, I never implied any of that. And yeah, I remember that stupid Puget Sound warm bubble.

[TT-SEA]

That's true, but more the exception than the rule, especially for the warm season overall. See 2010, 2001, 1993, 1983, 1968, 1954, etc.

 

2010 was not a wet summer.   July and August were very dry and the JJA period in total was right around normal.

 

We have discussed 1983 and 1993 many times.

 

2001 is interesting.  It was not a warm summer... but almost all the rain came on 11 or 12 days here scattered throughout the summer with 75 out of 90 days in JJA here being dry.

 

Here is August 2001 in my area...  

 

[Phil]

2010 was not a wet summer. July and August were very dry and the JJA period in total was right around normal.

 

We have discussed 1983 and 1993 many times.

 

2001 is interesting. It was not a warm summer... but almost all the rain came on 11 or 12 days here scattered throughout the summer with 75 out of 90 days in JJA here being dry.

 

Here is August 2001 in my area...

 

Lows in the 40s in August. Oh gawd that must have been heavenly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS looking a little more moist.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS looking a little more moist.

 

Thats what she said.  

[Front Ranger]

2010 was not a wet summer.   July and August were very dry and the JJA period in total was right around normal.

 

We have discussed 1983 and 1993 many times.

 

2001 is interesting.  It was not a warm summer... but almost all the rain came on 11 or 12 days here scattered throughout the summer with 75 out of 90 days in JJA here being dry.

 

Here is August 2001 in my area...  

 

 

2010 was a very wet warm season, though. Above normal precip in April, May, June, and very wet September.

[Deweydog]

Soooo many possibilities...

[TT-SEA]

2010 was a very wet warm season, though. Above normal precip in April, May, June, and very wet September.

 

This is very true.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its great we have these pointless discussions on an almost nightly basis. THANKS TIM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks troughy to end the month.

[TT-SEA]

Its great we have these pointless discussions on an almost nightly basis. THANKS TIM.

 

You don't have to participate.   

 

And almost everything discussed on here is pointless in the big picture.   Its just weather.  

[Deweydog]

The majority of us will be dead in 50 years.

[TT-SEA]

The majority of us will be dead in 50 years.

 

And if not dead... probably on the doorstep.  

[BLI snowman]

13 in a row for Portland. 2007-08 analog?

[Deweydog]

And if not dead... probably on the doorstep.

Winter 2068-69 will feature a top tier blast just to mess with our ambulatory asses. Of course at that point top tier will be highs in the low-mid 30's...

[Jesse]

The majority of us will be dead in 50 years.

 

I hope to live past 82.

 

You will be well over 100 though. Not looking good.

[Phil]

And if not dead... probably on the doorstep.

Lol, I’ll be 75. Assuming I still have my faculties in order by then, and Trump hasn’t ended the world. I think I’ll want to hang on for at least another decade.

[Deweydog]

I hope to live past 82.

 

You will be well over 100 though. Not looking good.

With your diet? Not likely...

[Jesse]

With your diet? Not likely...

 

I think you and I both do the gluten free thing. I am assuming you eat more meat/fast food than I do though. The many glowing descriptions of In-N-Out Burger meals is my clue.

[Deweydog]

I think you and I both do the gluten free thing. I am assuming you eat more meat/fast food than I do though. The many glowing descriptions of In-N-Out Burger meals is my clue.

Exactly. Engines and firearms work best when they're a little dirty.

 

I am lactose intolerant though.

[Jesse]

Exactly. Engines and firearms work best when they're a little dirty.

 

I am lactose intolerant though.

 

Tillamook ice cream is my kryptonite.

[Deweydog]

Tillamook ice cream is my kryptonite.

Ice cream can go to hell. It is my warm anomalies and poorly-timed sunbreaks.

[Jesse]

Speaking of frozen stuff. Would be pretty cool/historic if we saw some coming out of the sky this weekend!

[TT-SEA]

Tillamook ice cream is my kryptonite.

 

I literally just had a bowl of Oregon Hazelnut & Salted Caramel.    So frickin good.

 

Tillamook is better than any other ice cream... no contest.  

[ShawniganLake]

Exactly. Engines and firearms work best when they're a little dirty.

 

I am lactose intolerant though.

There’s a pill for that.

[Jesse]

Ice cream can go to hell. It is my warm anomalies and poorly-timed sunbreaks.

 

More of a hot pocket guy? Those are always warm and pleasantly humid, with a negligible marine layer.

[Phil]

I’ll never consume beef or pork for as long as I live. Or any artificial sugars. That s**t is a death sentence.

[Jesse]

I literally just had a bowl of Oregon Hazelnut & Salted Caramel.    So frickin good.

 

Tillamook is better than any other ice cream... no contest.  

 

I agree. We are lucky to live so close to the source. I have heard it is considered more of a luxury brand in distant parts of the country.

[Deweydog]

There’s a pill for that.

Yeah, I have just never been a fan. I've actually never been one for anything sweet. I like salty nuts.

[ShawniganLake]

I’ll never consume beef or pork for as long as I live. Or any artificial sugars. That s**t is a death sentence.

I had prime rib for dinner. Totally worth a couple of years.

[Deweydog]

I’ll never consume beef or pork for as long as I live. Or any artificial sugars. That s**t is a death sentence.

Poor chickens and fishies...