TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Much like with snow falling... it would be sort of interesting to have a time lapse of the trees looking fuller on a day like today. They look more full just since yesterday. They are playing catch up fast now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Our grass is taller today than it was yesterday. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Pretty good agreement between the 12z GFS/GEM/EURO about a ridge developing just offshore at day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Pretty good agreement between the 12z GFS/GEM/EURO about a ridge developing just offshore at day 10. Another round of record heat???????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Lower heights overall. Also a little faster with the ULL moving inland Thursday/Friday. I was talking about the progression later in the weekend and into next week. The EPS show 850mb temps warming by early next week and then its warm for the rest of the run through day 15. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 68 at SEA and 72 in North Bend now. Today is still not as warm as it was in early March though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Pretty much a nightmare scenario unfolding this week. Absolutely worst case. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Pretty much a nightmare scenario unfolding this week. Absolutely worst case. I will have nightmares over the temperature at 4 a.m. Its very important! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 That’s okay, you can leave it right where it is thank you. Maybe budge it even a little further west like the EPS hints at. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 In a way, we’re about to repeat the pattern progression that occurred from mid-January into mid-February, when the AAM removal process began in Eurasia. Only we have seasonal changes in the eastern hemispheric mechanics to deal with now. You could say we’re in the “mid-January” portion of the cycle now. This western ridge/+PNA cell probably has several weeks to run. It might even take until late May for peripheral boundary conditions to force a pattern change. It could happen sooner, but I wouldn’t bet on it just yet. Not until -AAM in the WHEM subtropics solidifies. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 In a way, we’re about to repeat the pattern progression that occurred from mid-January into mid-February, when the AAM removal process began in Eurasia. Only we have seasonal changes in the eastern hemispheric mechanics to deal with now. You could say we’re in the “mid-January” portion of the cycle now. This western ridge/+PNA cell probably has several weeks to run. It might even take until late May for peripheral boundary conditions to force a pattern change. It could happen sooner, but I wouldn’t bet on it just yet. Not until -AAM in the WHEM subtropics solidifies.I am sure we will get the several weeks of ridging now and still somehow pull off a hot summer. Best of both worlds! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 In a way, we’re about to repeat the pattern progression that occurred from mid-January into mid-February, when the AAM removal process began in Eurasia. Only we have seasonal changes in the eastern hemispheric mechanics to deal with now. You could say we’re in the “mid-January” portion of the AAM propagation cycle now. This western ridge/+PNA cell probably has several weeks to run. It might even take until late May for peripheral boundary conditions to force a pattern change. It could happen sooner, but I wouldn’t bet on it just yet. Not until -AAM in the WHEM subtropics solidifies. I like the sound of this. Even though we might pay the price in June. Although a trough in June can be quite pleasant if there is cold air aloft and the base of the trough is down in CA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 I like the sound of this. Even though we might pay the price in June.Maybe, but that doesn’t mean the entire month of June will be troughy. There should be a hefty niña stretch in there somewhere, but much like the upcoming ridging, it looks like a temporary/subseasonal type pattern rather than a background state. We haven’t seen a stable convective signature in the tropics in 2018, to date. BTW, remember when you thought the entire spring would be a washout with no nice weather until June? #ToldYouSo Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Maybe, but that doesn’t mean the entire month of June will be troughy. There should be a hefty niña stretch in there somewhere, but much like the upcoming ridging, it looks like a temporary/subseasonal type pattern rather than a background state. We haven’t seen a stable convective signature in the tropics in 2018, to date. BTW, remember when you thought the entire spring would be a washout with no nice weather until June? #ToldYouSo It got so bad during the first 17 days of April that nice weather became more likely... just based on my knowledge of local weather history. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Starting to look like this spring might end up with more sunshine and less rainy days than usual most places. "Nice", as some say. Hard to believe after all the gnashing of teeth the first couple weeks this month. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 I am sure we will get the several weeks of ridging now and still somehow pull off a hot summer. Best of both worlds!Lol. It’s hard to decipher this far in advance, but I’m guessing you’ll hate July, love August, and have mixed feelings about June. September is still in the veil. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Another round of record heat????????Stay tuned! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Lol. It’s hard to decipher this far in advance, but I’m guessing you’ll hate July, love August, and have mixed feelings about June. September is still in the veil.Meh. We were supposed to be in the midst of a troughy last 2/3 of April right now according to predictions just a few weeks ago. I don’t think anyone has a good grip on the pattern right now. Which means prepare for the default warmth of recent years and hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Starting to look like this spring might end up with more sunshine and less rainy days than usual most places. "Nice", as some say. Hard to believe after all the gnashing of teeth the first couple weeks this month.It has turned around for sure. Much more to my liking. Looking at the daily rain detail for North Bend for 2018... a wet rest of spring and summer seems very unlikely. As opposed to years with lots of dry periods through mid April. Out longest streak until now has been 3 days on a couple occasions. This is a very localized outlook but it works most of the time for the region. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 It has turned around for sure. Much more to my liking. Looking at the daily rain detail for North Bend for 2018... a wet rest of spring and summer seems very unlikely. As opposed to years with lots of dry periods through mid April. Out longest streak until now has been 3 days on a couple occasion. This is a very localized outlook but it works most of the time for the region.Your longest dry streak this year has only been three days until now? That seems pretty hard to believe. Btw if it’s true you don’t need to bombard me with maps, photos and spreadsheets. You can just tell me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 It has turned around for sure. Much more to my liking. Looking at the daily rain detail for North Bend for 2018... a wet rest of spring and summer seems very unlikely. As opposed to years with lots of dry periods through mid April. Out longest streak until now has been 3 days on a couple occasion. This is very localized but it works most of the time. I thought you were saying just last week that this dry stretch likely means a wet May? SEA averages 29 days without measurable precip Mar-Apr. In 2017, they only had 14. In 2018, they've had 26 with a bunch more to come. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Your longest dry streak this year has only been three days until now? That seems pretty hard to believe. Btw if it’s true you don’t need to bombard me with maps, photos and spreadsheets. You can just tell me. Yes. Jan 1-3Feb 10-12Feb 19-21Mar 10-12Apr 18-20 That is it. On Wednesday we will reach a 4-day dry streak for the first time in 2018. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 This is not my data... this is from an official weather station and site in North Bend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Meh. We were supposed to be in the midst of a troughy last 2/3 of April right now according to predictions just a few weeks ago. I don’t think anyone has a good grip on the pattern right now. Which means prepare for the default warmth of recent years and hope for the best.Yeah, it’s never easy to make subseasonal forecasts between the final warming and the replacement of the Siberian High with the Monsoonal Trough (the latter has yet to occur/complete). Which is why I always throw in a few sneaky subtexts/qualifiers during these times. My bust rate is always the highest during Spring. The models struggle too. Spring barriers for ENSO, changes in the frequency of the wavetrain which are unique by year, etc. Tough times. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Yes. Jan 1-3Feb 10-12Feb 19-21Mar 10-12Apr 18-20 That is it. On Wednesday we will reach a 4-day dry streak for the first time in 2018. Crazy. SEA has had two 6+ day dry streaks. I'm starting to get the impression you live in an unusually wet microclimate... 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Yes. Jan 1-3Feb 10-12Feb 19-21Mar 10-12Apr 18-20 That is it. On Wednesday we will reach a 4-day dry streak for the first time in 2018. That's crazy. Down here, we are currently at day 7 for a trace or less. Then there were 4 consecutive days with 0.00" March 28-31. And 5 consecutive days with 0.00" February 4-8 (10 consecutive with no more than a trace 2/4-2/13). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Crazy. SEA has had two 6+ day dry streaks. I'm starting to get the impression you live in an unusually wet microclimate...Again Jared... for the millionth time... the rain has been unusually persistent for my area. Based on the normal number of days in my area. When it gets ridiculous like this here then there is usually a reward here. And a reward here usually means a reward for everyone else too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Crazy. SEA has had two 6+ day dry streaks. I'm starting to get the impression you live in an unusually wet microclimate...An unusually warm, wet, snowy, and sunny microclimate featuring both searing hot deck temperatures and overexposed sensors. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Glad to see the GFS holding strong with the cooler/wetter weekend solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 An unusually warm, wet, snowy, and sunny microclimate featuring both searing hot deck temperatures and overexposed sensors. And plants blasting color out of every orifice year round. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 An unusually warm, wet, snowy, and sunny microclimate featuring both searing hot deck temperatures and overexposed sensors. East wind in the fall and winter can often make North Bend the warmest place in the state. Cold onshore flow can make us the snowiest place in the lowlands. And my deck is very warm right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 And plants blasting color out of every orifice year round.We took a turn backwards in terms of vegetation starting in mid February and are just starting to get back to normal now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 69 at SEA and 75 in North Bend right now. We don't get the cooling effect of the north wind through the Sound on days like this and are often warmer being inland and more protected. That cuts both ways... sometimes the protection here traps clouds and moisture while Seattle is sunny and warmer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 That's crazy. Down here, we are currently at day 7 for a trace or less. Then there were 4 consecutive days with 0.00" March 28-31. And 5 consecutive days with 0.00" February 4-8 (10 consecutive with no more than a trace 2/4-2/13).It has been much worse than usual here. Making me believe it will be better than normal here for the next few months. And it's hard for it to better than normal here without dragging the rest of you along for the nice weather ride. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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